Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-001:narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08T20:20:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Copper futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h, supported by broad, fresh demand-side narratives (grid modernisation, electrification, energy transition build-out) with multi-source reinforcement. 62 up accelerating 24h false 42
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side disruption framing (Chile/Codelco and broader mine-supply constraint narratives) contributes a supportive (bullish) skew to copper over the next 6–24h, but is less fresh than the demand-side surge. 58 up stable 6h false 42
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy headlines increase near-term volatility/range risk for copper (6–24h), even if the net directional sentiment remains positive. 55 mixed accelerating 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260408T202000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T20:20:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h, supported by broad, fresh demand-side narratives (grid modernisation, electrification, energy transition build-out) with multi-source reinforcement.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy/tariff uncertainty could dampen risk appetite quickly without showing as explicit counterevidence in the current corpus."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side disruption framing (Chile/Codelco and broader mine-supply constraint narratives) contributes a supportive (bullish) skew to copper over the next 6\u201324h, but is less fresh than the demand-side surge.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If disruption headlines fail to refresh while demand narratives persist, this driver\u2019s marginal impact fades (stale-overhang risk)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headlines increase near-term volatility/range risk for copper (6\u201324h), even if the net directional sentiment remains positive.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Absence of fresh negative policy escalation signals in the most recent 0\u20136h window."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 58,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 112,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h": 12,
 "fresh_24_72h": 6,
 "stale_gt_72h": 9
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "summary": "Trade-policy/tariff narrative can swing quickly, creating volatility without strong in-corpus counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "data_sparsity_micro_signals",
 "severity": "low",
 "summary": "Several VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk) and should not be treated as directional validators."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias label if fresh (<=24h) demand-side electrification/grid build-out signals continue to refresh without material opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines refresh within the next 6h and begin to show mixed/contradictory directional framing."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Only activate if 2+ independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
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 "lookback_hours": 24,
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 ]
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 57,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 57,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 57,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 19,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus for copper; reversal-risk kept low unless fresh opposing evidence appears.",
 "State-change computed as new_bullish using an assumed neutral prior due to missing prior-state memory in the input payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}