Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001:narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-08T20:20:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-001 | Copper futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h, supported by broad, fresh demand-side narratives (grid modernisation, electrification, energy transition build-out) with multi-source reinforcement. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 42 |
| copper | B-copper-002 | Supply-side disruption framing (Chile/Codelco and broader mine-supply constraint narratives) contributes a supportive (bullish) skew to copper over the next 6–24h, but is less fresh than the demand-side surge. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 42 |
| copper | B-copper-003 | Trade-policy headlines increase near-term volatility/range risk for copper (6–24h), even if the net directional sentiment remains positive. | 55 | mixed | accelerating | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260408T202000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T20:20:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper futures sentiment remains biased upward over the next 24h, supported by broad, fresh demand-side narratives (grid modernisation, electrification, energy transition build-out) with multi-source reinforcement.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Policy/tariff uncertainty could dampen risk appetite quickly without showing as explicit counterevidence in the current corpus."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Supply-side disruption framing (Chile/Codelco and broader mine-supply constraint narratives) contributes a supportive (bullish) skew to copper over the next 6\u201324h, but is less fresh than the demand-side surge.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If disruption headlines fail to refresh while demand narratives persist, this driver\u2019s marginal impact fades (stale-overhang risk)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headlines increase near-term volatility/range risk for copper (6\u201324h), even if the net directional sentiment remains positive.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Absence of fresh negative policy escalation signals in the most recent 0\u20136h window."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002",
"B-copper-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 58,
"B": 4,
"C": 3,
"D": 112,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 7,
"fresh_6_24h": 12,
"fresh_24_72h": 6,
"stale_gt_72h": 9
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-001",
"market": "copper",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"summary": "Trade-policy/tariff narrative can swing quickly, creating volatility without strong in-corpus counterevidence."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-002",
"market": "copper",
"type": "data_sparsity_micro_signals",
"severity": "low",
"summary": "Several VIP outliers are single-source (echo-risk) and should not be treated as directional validators."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias label if fresh (<=24h) demand-side electrification/grid build-out signals continue to refresh without material opposing evidence."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines refresh within the next 6h and begin to show mixed/contradictory directional framing."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Only activate if 2+ independent, fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the last cycle."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
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"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
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"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 57,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 19,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 12,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictions were provided in the admitted corpus for copper; reversal-risk kept low unless fresh opposing evidence appears.",
"State-change computed as new_bullish using an assumed neutral prior due to missing prior-state memory in the input payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}