Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-08T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-01 |
Near-term upside bias in coffee futures is supported by weather/climate disruption narratives affecting production (Arabica/Robusta), with fresh reinforcing coverage. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-02 |
Demand-side tone (consumer preference signals and large-chain activity) is supportive enough to reduce downside follow-through risk over the next day, keeping net bias upward. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
46 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-03 |
Logistics/shipping disruption narratives remain a supportive (tightening) background factor for coffee pricing and can amplify volatility on new headlines. |
55 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term upside bias in coffee futures is supported by weather/climate disruption narratives affecting coffee production (Arabica/Robusta), with fresh reinforcing coverage.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"weather_disruptions",
"crop_conditions_disease",
"origin_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Demand-side tone (consumer preference signals and large-chain activity) is supportive enough to reduce downside follow-through risk over the next day, keeping net bias upward.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"consumption_trends",
"product_launch_cycle",
"market_expansion"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If demand-weakening evidence becomes dominant (not present in admitted corpus), upside bias may fade quickly."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives remain a supportive (tightening) background factor for coffee pricing and can amplify volatility on new headlines.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"shipping_freight",
"global_logistics_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-01",
"B-coffee-02",
"B-coffee-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 134,
"B": 1,
"C": 1,
"D": 245,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_evidence_est": 24,
"fresh_6_24h_evidence_est": 110,
"fresh_24_72h_evidence_est": 150,
"stale_over_72h_evidence_est": 97
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple supportive drivers (weather/supply + demand tone + logistics) can rapidly re-rank on fresh updates, raising intraday reversals despite low explicit contradiction."
},
{
"risk_flag": "low_authority_tail",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Broad directional mass exists, but a meaningful portion of supporting breadth is Tier-D / lower-authority; confirmation quality is mixed rather than uniformly institutional."
},
{
"risk_flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Kill-switch not triggered in this snapshot; monitor for <=2h opposing signals that materially increase contradiction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while 0\u20136h evidence continues to reinforce weather/supply disruption narratives without fresh opposing mass."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 for multiple buckets or if logistics/shipping risk headlines cluster."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if two or more independent, fresh (<=6h) signals imply supply easing / demand deterioration sufficient to pull directional_score_signed below +20."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if signal becomes data-sparse (fresh evidence collapses) or kill-switch triggers with high fragility."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1591,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1277,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1071,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0882,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0641,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 72,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 72,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.061,
"fresh_evidence_count": 10,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0625,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0759,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0769,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0779,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0789,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0769,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0641,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 69,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0633,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 69,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 69,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0633,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 67,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 67,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0759,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0779,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0921,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0972,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1014,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0972,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
"No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' by degraded prior-state handling.",
"Directional interpretation constrained to coffee futures (KC); several admitted signals are demand/industry narratives rather than direct price prints.",
"Authority tier counts are aggregated across admitted trend bundles and likely include overlap across trends (not de-duplicated).",
"Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered: no opposing-signal cluster detected within <=2h of snapshot time."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}