Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures (KC)
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-01 Near-term upside bias in coffee futures is supported by weather/climate disruption narratives affecting production (Arabica/Robusta), with fresh reinforcing coverage. 63 up accelerating 6h false 46
coffee B-coffee-02 Demand-side tone (consumer preference signals and large-chain activity) is supportive enough to reduce downside follow-through risk over the next day, keeping net bias upward. 58 up stable 24h false 46
coffee B-coffee-03 Logistics/shipping disruption narratives remain a supportive (tightening) background factor for coffee pricing and can amplify volatility on new headlines. 55 up fading 24h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures (KC)",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-01",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term upside bias in coffee futures is supported by weather/climate disruption narratives affecting coffee production (Arabica/Robusta), with fresh reinforcing coverage.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-02",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side tone (consumer preference signals and large-chain activity) is supportive enough to reduce downside follow-through risk over the next day, keeping net bias upward.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends",
 "product_launch_cycle",
 "market_expansion"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If demand-weakening evidence becomes dominant (not present in admitted corpus), upside bias may fade quickly."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-03",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Logistics/shipping disruption narratives remain a supportive (tightening) background factor for coffee pricing and can amplify volatility on new headlines.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "global_logistics_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-01",
 "B-coffee-02",
 "B-coffee-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 134,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 245,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_evidence_est": 24,
 "fresh_6_24h_evidence_est": 110,
 "fresh_24_72h_evidence_est": 150,
 "stale_over_72h_evidence_est": 97
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Multiple supportive drivers (weather/supply + demand tone + logistics) can rapidly re-rank on fresh updates, raising intraday reversals despite low explicit contradiction."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "low_authority_tail",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Broad directional mass exists, but a meaningful portion of supporting breadth is Tier-D / lower-authority; confirmation quality is mixed rather than uniformly institutional."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Kill-switch not triggered in this snapshot; monitor for <=2h opposing signals that materially increase contradiction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while 0\u20136h evidence continues to reinforce weather/supply disruption narratives without fresh opposing mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if contradiction_ratio rises above ~0.20 for multiple buckets or if logistics/shipping risk headlines cluster."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch if two or more independent, fresh (<=6h) signals imply supply easing / demand deterioration sufficient to pull directional_score_signed below +20."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if signal becomes data-sparse (fresh evidence collapses) or kill-switch triggers with high fragility."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1667,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1591,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1277,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1071,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0882,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0641,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 72,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 72,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.061,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 10,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0625,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0759,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0769,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0779,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0789,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0769,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0641,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 69,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0633,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 69,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 69,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0633,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.075,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 67,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 67,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0759,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0779,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0921,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0972,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1014,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0972,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 72,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=coffee.",
 "No trend_state_memory / prior market_state_table provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' by degraded prior-state handling.",
 "Directional interpretation constrained to coffee futures (KC); several admitted signals are demand/industry narratives rather than direct price prints.",
 "Authority tier counts are aggregated across admitted trend bundles and likely include overlap across trends (not de-duplicated).",
 "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered: no opposing-signal cluster detected within <=2h of snapshot time."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}