Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-08T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/supply-chain disruption risk (shipping/freight constraints and geopolitics) impacting commodity flows. 64 up accelerating 6h false 54
coffee B-coffee-2 Supply-side risk narrative (weather disruption / crop conditions & disease / agricultural risk commentary) is net supportive for higher coffee futures over the next 24 hours. 67 up stable 24h false 54
coffee B-coffee-3 Demand-side coverage (consumer preference strength and major chain expansion/product activity) provides additional (secondary) upward support for coffee futures sentiment. 60 up fading 24h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-coffee-20260408T230000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term coffee futures face upward price pressure from logistics/supply-chain disruption risk (shipping/freight constraints and geopolitics) impacting commodity flows.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "shipping_freight",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Supply-side risk narrative (weather disruption / crop conditions & disease / agricultural risk commentary) is net supportive for higher coffee futures over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 67,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "weather_disruptions",
 "crop_conditions_disease",
 "origin_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Demand-side coverage (consumer preference strength and major chain expansion/product activity) provides additional (secondary) upward support for coffee futures sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "consumption_trends"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2",
 "B-coffee-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 103,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 3,
 "D": 202,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_0_6h_items": 7,
 "fresh_evidence_6_24h_items": 2,
 "background_evidence_24_72h_items": 0,
 "stale_context_gt_72h_present": true
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional thesis is supported by multiple domains (logistics, supply risk, demand headlines); rapid sentiment flips are possible if geopolitics/logistics ease."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "geopolitical_shock_sensitivity",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "A meaningful portion of fresh attention is tied to global trade/logistics risk narratives (event-driven)."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "intraday_evidence_clustering",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Fresh updates cluster late in the most recent UTC hours; earlier-hour buckets are sparse."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias only while fresh supply/logistics risk coverage remains dominant and contradiction remains low (no fresh opposing evidence cluster within 2h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if a new high-authority headline materially reduces supply risk or signals improved logistics throughput."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh records (<=2h) appear that negate the disruption thesis (e.g., de-escalation / shipping normalisation), treat as potential reversal setup."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 15,
 "acceleration_score": 13,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-08T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-08T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 11,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 30,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'coffee'; analysis constrained to single market.",
 "No explicit opposing/counter-direction evidence objects were provided (contradictions[] empty); reversal risk set to medium primarily due to event-driven logistics/geopolitics sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.",
 "Directional mapping uses market-impact inference (supply/logistics risk -> upward price pressure) because upstream inputs did not include explicit price-direction fields per trend."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}