Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: uranium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: RF-UR-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX
  • generated_at: 2026-04-07T14:43:23Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Near-term uranium futures bias remains upward as broad pro-nuclear policy/energy-security signals and nuclear buildout narratives dominate, with limited fresh counterevidence in the admitted corpus. 63 up accelerating 6h false 38
uranium B-UR-002 Uranium futures sentiment over the next 24h stays constructive, supported by sustained multi-source coverage across regulators/policy and uranium supply/mining development themes; risk is mainly narrative/authority-mix rather than direct opposing evidence. 66 up stable 24h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_uranium_2026-04-07T14:43:23Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T14:43:23Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term uranium futures bias remains upward as broad pro-nuclear policy/energy-security signals and nuclear buildout narratives dominate, with limited fresh counterevidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Uranium futures sentiment over the next 24h stays constructive, supported by sustained multi-source coverage across regulators/policy and uranium supply/mining development themes; risk is mainly narrative/authority-mix rather than direct opposing evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk",
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 105,
 "B": 23,
 "C": 30,
 "D": 259,
 "U": 0,
 "basis": "non_deduped_sum_across_admitted_trend_bundles"
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h": 7,
 "stale_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 0,
 "basis": "timestamps_visible_in_trend/vip_samples_and_recency_proxies"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-LOW_AUTHORITY_MIX",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Authority mix is skewed toward lower-tier sources in several admitted bundles; this reduces robustness slightly but is not treated as counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-BACKGROUND_PERSISTENCE_OVERHANG",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Multiple supporting narratives span >7 days (slow-burn/sustained). Fresh updates exist, but part of conviction is still supported by persistent background themes."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF-UR-TIMESERIES_SAMPLING_LIMIT",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Signal timeseries bucket counts are conservative because only sampled/visible timestamps were available post-gating; bucket structure maintained."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish monitoring bias while directional_state=bullish AND conviction_score_0_100>=65 AND reversal_risk!=high."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility monitoring if contradiction_ratio in the latest 3 buckets rises above 0.25 OR if bearish_pressure_score exceeds 30 with fresh_evidence_count>=2."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if two or more independent opposing signals appear within 2h AND directional_score_signed falls by >=25 from its 6h trailing peak."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Default to flat/watch posture if conviction_score_0_100 drops below 45 OR thesis_kill_switch becomes true."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 86,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 88,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 49,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 89,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 49,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 90,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 92,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 93,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 94,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:43:23Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:43:23Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 95,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit opposing/counter-direction evidence objects were present in the admitted signal set; reversal risk kept low.",
 "Prior market state was not provided (no trend_state_memory/prior state table); state_change set to 'unchanged' as a safe default.",
 "Source tier counts are aggregated from trend-level bundles and are not deduplicated across overlapping evidence records."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}