Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: contradiction_mixed_drivers
- generated_at: 2026-04-07 13:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SI-001 |
Near-term silver pricing is being pulled in opposing directions: (a) macro real-rate/central-bank narrative (downward pressure) versus (b) industrial demand + supply-constraint narrative (support). |
60% |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
60 |
| silver |
B-SI-002 |
Macro policy / monetary-tightening framing is currently a headwind for silver over the next 6–24 hours. |
55% |
down |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
60 |
| silver |
B-SI-003 |
Physical/industrial narrative (supply constraints and demand resilience) remains a meaningful support factor for silver, limiting downside follow-through risk. |
52% |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
60 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_silver_20260407T133000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T13:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver pricing is being pulled in opposing directions: (a) macro real-rate/central-bank narrative (downward pressure) versus (b) industrial demand + supply-constraint narrative (support).",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Monetary policy / real-rate expectations (Fed/ECB) dominating recent coverage",
"Industrial demand framing (incl. solar/electronics references) and supply-constraint framing present but less decisive"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If rate expectations shift decisively towards easing (would reduce the bearish macro impulse)",
"If fresh evidence arrives showing demand deterioration or supply normalisation (would weaken the supportive leg)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Macro policy / monetary-tightening framing is currently a headwind for silver over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Late-surge macro policy narratives",
"High recency-weighted activity tied to interest-rate expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh, credible shift towards lower rates / weaker USD narrative within the next 6\u201312h",
"Stronger-than-expected industrial demand confirmations"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SI-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Physical/industrial narrative (supply constraints and demand resilience) remains a meaningful support factor for silver, limiting downside follow-through risk.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Supply-constraint framing",
"Industrial demand framing (incl. solar manufacturing references)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Fresh evidence of rising mine supply / operational restarts translating into near-term availability",
"Fresh evidence of weakening end-demand"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SI-001",
"B-SI-002",
"B-SI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 45,
"B": 10,
"C": 6,
"D": 95,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_evidence_dominant": true,
"stale_context_present": true,
"notes": [
"Multiple high-volume macro/precious-metals narrative clusters show newest evidence timestamps on 2026-04-07.",
"Several supportive industrial/supply items are present but not clearly dominating the most recent window."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "contradiction_mixed_drivers",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Macro (rates/real-rates) headwind signals coexist with industrial-demand/supply-constraint support signals, keeping net direction mixed."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "High-sensitivity to incremental macro headlines (Fed/ECB expectations) may flip the net signal quickly."
},
{
"flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source and should be treated as weak priors unless corroborated."
},
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "No reliable prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided to compute a true state transition; state_change held as unchanged."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat unless the next 6h shows decisive dominance of either (a) easing/weak-USD impulse (bullish) or (b) tightening/strong real-rate impulse (bearish).",
"label": "stay_flat"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro headlines produce a sharp tilt in the hourly sentiment buckets (directional_score_signed magnitude > 25 for 2+ consecutive hours), move to directional watch.",
"label": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If bullish-support (industrial demand/supply constraints) strengthens while macro headwind weakens within a 2\u20134h window, treat as reversal-risk to the downside thesis.",
"label": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -15,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 51,
"net_sentiment_score": -16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": -14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 49,
"net_sentiment_score": -12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": -10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 16,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: silver.",
"No explicit contradiction objects provided; mixed state is driven by opposing driver-classes (macro headwind vs industrial/supply support), not by formal contradiction records.",
"Timeseries values are conservative reconstructions using recency/heat/shape hints; treat as sentiment-shape proxy rather than a price proxy."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}