Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: contradiction_mixed_drivers
  • generated_at: 2026-04-07 13:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SI-001 Near-term silver pricing is being pulled in opposing directions: (a) macro real-rate/central-bank narrative (downward pressure) versus (b) industrial demand + supply-constraint narrative (support). 60% mixed stable 24h false 60
silver B-SI-002 Macro policy / monetary-tightening framing is currently a headwind for silver over the next 6–24 hours. 55% down accelerating 24h false 60
silver B-SI-003 Physical/industrial narrative (supply constraints and demand resilience) remains a meaningful support factor for silver, limiting downside follow-through risk. 52% up fading 24h false 60

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_silver_20260407T133000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T13:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term silver pricing is being pulled in opposing directions: (a) macro real-rate/central-bank narrative (downward pressure) versus (b) industrial demand + supply-constraint narrative (support).",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Monetary policy / real-rate expectations (Fed/ECB) dominating recent coverage",
 "Industrial demand framing (incl. solar/electronics references) and supply-constraint framing present but less decisive"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If rate expectations shift decisively towards easing (would reduce the bearish macro impulse)",
 "If fresh evidence arrives showing demand deterioration or supply normalisation (would weaken the supportive leg)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 75,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Macro policy / monetary-tightening framing is currently a headwind for silver over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Late-surge macro policy narratives",
 "High recency-weighted activity tied to interest-rate expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh, credible shift towards lower rates / weaker USD narrative within the next 6\u201312h",
 "Stronger-than-expected industrial demand confirmations"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SI-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Physical/industrial narrative (supply constraints and demand resilience) remains a meaningful support factor for silver, limiting downside follow-through risk.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Supply-constraint framing",
 "Industrial demand framing (incl. solar manufacturing references)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Fresh evidence of rising mine supply / operational restarts translating into near-term availability",
 "Fresh evidence of weakening end-demand"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 62,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SI-001",
 "B-SI-002",
 "B-SI-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 45,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 95,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_evidence_dominant": true,
 "stale_context_present": true,
 "notes": [
 "Multiple high-volume macro/precious-metals narrative clusters show newest evidence timestamps on 2026-04-07.",
 "Several supportive industrial/supply items are present but not clearly dominating the most recent window."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_mixed_drivers",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Macro (rates/real-rates) headwind signals coexist with industrial-demand/supply-constraint support signals, keeping net direction mixed."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "High-sensitivity to incremental macro headlines (Fed/ECB expectations) may flip the net signal quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_vip_noise",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP outliers are single-source and should be treated as weak priors unless corroborated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "No reliable prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory provided to compute a true state transition; state_change held as unchanged."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Stay flat unless the next 6h shows decisive dominance of either (a) easing/weak-USD impulse (bullish) or (b) tightening/strong real-rate impulse (bearish).",
 "label": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro headlines produce a sharp tilt in the hourly sentiment buckets (directional_score_signed magnitude > 25 for 2+ consecutive hours), move to directional watch.",
 "label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If bullish-support (industrial demand/supply constraints) strengthens while macro headwind weakens within a 2\u20134h window, treat as reversal-risk to the downside thesis.",
 "label": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.31,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.32,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.34,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -11,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -15,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 51,
 "net_sentiment_score": -16,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": -14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.37,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 49,
 "net_sentiment_score": -12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 48,
 "net_sentiment_score": -10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 16,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: silver.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects provided; mixed state is driven by opposing driver-classes (macro headwind vs industrial/supply support), not by formal contradiction records.",
 "Timeseries values are conservative reconstructions using recency/heat/shape hints; treat as sentiment-shape proxy rather than a price proxy."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}