Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural Gas (LNG / European gas risk premium)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_fragility (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-07T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B1 |
Near-term natural gas pricing bias is upward due to elevated geopolitical/supply-disruption risk premium (Middle East + European supply security). |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B2 |
Volatility risk is elevated: price can gap in either direction as headlines confirm or fade without clear mechanical supply outages. |
71 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
74 |
| natural_gas |
B3 |
Downside (cooling) pressure exists if storage/supply data narratives dominate and no disruption is confirmed; currently present but thin. |
34 |
down |
fading |
24h |
false |
74 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260407T150000Z-natural_gas",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural Gas (LNG / European gas risk premium)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas pricing bias is upward due to elevated geopolitical/supply-disruption risk premium (Middle East + European supply security narratives).",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines intersecting LNG and gas flows (Iran/Israel/Qatar cluster)",
"European energy-security / infrastructure-security narratives (Russia/Europe pipeline and security focus)",
"Repeated, broad, multi-source reinforcement with recent updates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: price can gap in either direction as headlines confirm or fade without clear mechanical supply outages.",
"probability_pct": 71,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Event-driven (headline-sensitive) catalyst mix",
"High narrative breadth across multiple theatres (Middle East + Europe)",
"Singleton operational signals can amplify short-lived moves"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Downside (cooling) pressure exists if storage/supply data narratives dominate and no disruption is confirmed; currently present but thin and mostly singleton.",
"probability_pct": 34,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Isolated storage/inventory and supply-data mentions (singleton / low-diversity)",
"Potential mean-reversion if geopolitical premium fails to convert into supply impact"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 0,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 5,
"fresh_24_72h": 2,
"stale_gt_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "event_driven_fragility",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "high",
"detail": "Direction is supported by broad geopolitical risk premium, but outcomes are headline-sensitive and can mean-revert rapidly without confirmed flow disruption."
},
{
"flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treat as volatility amplifiers, not core directional proof."
},
{
"flag": "flight_plan_missing_fields",
"market": "natural_gas",
"level": "medium",
"detail": "asset_driver_arenas / primary_asset fields absent; target market resolved from dominant trend mapping rather than explicit scope."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional multi-source confirmation appears of actual LNG / pipeline flow disruption or escalation that directly constrains supply."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (credible de-escalation / confirmed non-impact on flows) while headline-driven signals keep printing (whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh, independent storage/supply data signals (2+ sources) begin to outweigh disruption-risk signals (potential reversal to neutral)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 82,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 81,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 79,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 77,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 76,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 73,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 74,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target market inferred from dominant LNG/natural-gas/geopolitical evidence cluster (flight plan missing target_market_code and primary_asset identifiers).",
"No explicit contradiction record-sets present; contradiction_ratio values are conservative placeholders derived from 'no contradictions' + mixed singleton outliers.",
"source_tier_counts reflect high-authority anchors present in admitted trend set (not a deduplicated count of underlying evidence records).",
"Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bull/bear baseline."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}