Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural Gas (LNG / European gas risk premium)
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_fragility (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-07T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B1 Near-term natural gas pricing bias is upward due to elevated geopolitical/supply-disruption risk premium (Middle East + European supply security). 66 up accelerating 24h false 74
natural_gas B2 Volatility risk is elevated: price can gap in either direction as headlines confirm or fade without clear mechanical supply outages. 71 mixed stable 6h false 74
natural_gas B3 Downside (cooling) pressure exists if storage/supply data narratives dominate and no disruption is confirmed; currently present but thin. 34 down fading 24h false 74

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260407T150000Z-natural_gas",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural Gas (LNG / European gas risk premium)",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "inferred_trend",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas pricing bias is upward due to elevated geopolitical/supply-disruption risk premium (Middle East + European supply security narratives).",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Geopolitical escalation / conflict headlines intersecting LNG and gas flows (Iran/Israel/Qatar cluster)",
 "European energy-security / infrastructure-security narratives (Russia/Europe pipeline and security focus)",
 "Repeated, broad, multi-source reinforcement with recent updates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Volatility risk is elevated: price can gap in either direction as headlines confirm or fade without clear mechanical supply outages.",
 "probability_pct": 71,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Event-driven (headline-sensitive) catalyst mix",
 "High narrative breadth across multiple theatres (Middle East + Europe)",
 "Singleton operational signals can amplify short-lived moves"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Downside (cooling) pressure exists if storage/supply data narratives dominate and no disruption is confirmed; currently present but thin and mostly singleton.",
 "probability_pct": 34,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Isolated storage/inventory and supply-data mentions (singleton / low-diversity)",
 "Potential mean-reversion if geopolitical premium fails to convert into supply impact"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 80,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 10,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 0,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h": 5,
 "fresh_24_72h": 2,
 "stale_gt_72h": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_fragility",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "high",
 "detail": "Direction is supported by broad geopolitical risk premium, but outcomes are headline-sensitive and can mean-revert rapidly without confirmed flow disruption."
 },
 {
 "flag": "singleton_echo_risk",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "Multiple VIP/risk items are single-source; treat as volatility amplifiers, not core directional proof."
 },
 {
 "flag": "flight_plan_missing_fields",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "level": "medium",
 "detail": "asset_driver_arenas / primary_asset fields absent; target market resolved from dominant trend mapping rather than explicit scope."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional multi-source confirmation appears of actual LNG / pipeline flow disruption or escalation that directly constrains supply."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction rises (credible de-escalation / confirmed non-impact on flows) while headline-driven signals keep printing (whipsaw risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh, independent storage/supply data signals (2+ sources) begin to outweigh disruption-risk signals (potential reversal to neutral)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 43,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 82,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 42,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 41,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 37,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 81,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 79,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 77,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 76,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 73,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 74,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 12,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market inferred from dominant LNG/natural-gas/geopolitical evidence cluster (flight plan missing target_market_code and primary_asset identifiers).",
 "No explicit contradiction record-sets present; contradiction_ratio values are conservative placeholders derived from 'no contradictions' + mixed singleton outliers.",
 "source_tier_counts reflect high-authority anchors present in admitted trend set (not a deduplicated count of underlying evidence records).",
 "Prior state unavailable (no trend_state_memory provided); state_change left as 'unchanged' to avoid assuming a prior neutral/bull/bear baseline."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}