Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-07 15:10 UTC
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-001 |
Geopolitical-risk headlines can add a defensive bid to gold, but the available corpus here is mostly stale vs the requested 6h/24h horizons. |
54 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-002 |
Near-term gold direction is mixed due to sparse, low-freshness market-specific signals and unresolved balance between real-rates/USD drivers in this dataset. |
50 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-07T15:10:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T15:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Geopolitical-risk headlines can add a defensive bid to gold, but the available corpus here is mostly stale vs the requested 6h/24h horizons.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No fresh (0\u201372h) corroboration in the admitted gold-mapped signal set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Near-term gold direction is mixed due to sparse, low-freshness market-specific signals and unresolved balance between real-rates/USD drivers in this dataset.",
"probability_pct": 50,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"etf_investment_flows",
"central_bank_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 3,
"notes": "Gold-mapped items present (e.g., GLD/gold-market logistics/traceability) are dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; no robust market-specific updates inside last 72h."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Most gold-mapped evidence is >72h old (primarily early March 2026), heavily downweighted for 6h/24h horizons."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Admitted gold-specific signal count is below the minimum-evidence threshold; directional call suppressed to neutral/mixed."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Cross-domain geopolitical narratives exist, but without fresh gold-specific confirmation they can produce unstable inference."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral watch state unless fresh (<=24h) gold-specific signals raise directional_mass_score_0_100 above ~45 with low contradiction."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate monitoring if new high-authority (Tier A/B) gold-market flow or macro real-rate shock signals appear within a 0\u20136h window."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (2+ independent signals <=2h) emerges against any newly forming directional bias, treat as a potential kill-switch precursor."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
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"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 3,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": true,
"notes": [
"Target scope locked to gold (explicit).",
"Gold-mapped signals are present but sparse and stale (mostly 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09).",
"Minimum evidence threshold for directional conviction is not met for 6h/24h horizons; output suppressed to neutral_mixed.",
"No late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered (no fresh <=2h opposing cluster in admitted gold-mapped set).",
"Many non-gold geopolitical trends exist but are treated as cross-domain context; most are stale for the requested horizons."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}