Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: policy_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-07T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-001 Electrification / grid modernisation / renewable deployment narratives add near-term supportive demand pressure, bias skewed to upside. 66 up accelerating 24h false 38
copper B-copper-002 Supply-side narratives tied to major producers/mining regions (e.g., Chile/Codelco) keep a supply-risk premium, supporting higher prices on dips. 58 up stable 24h false 38
copper B-copper-003 Trade-policy headline flow is a volatility amplifier for copper, quickly shifting price expectations and increasing whipsaw/reversal risk even if baseline bias remains bullish. 64 mixed accelerating 6h false 38

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-copper-20260407T150000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Cross-domain electrification / grid modernisation / renewable deployment narratives are adding near-term supportive demand pressure for copper, keeping the bias skewed to upside.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks (attention rising, no direct inventory print provided)",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Policy-driven demand uncertainty (trade/tariff framing) could soften the demand impulse without warning."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Supply-side narratives tied to major producers/mining regions (e.g., Chile/Codelco and large copper mine complex references) keep supply-risk premium present, supporting higher prices on dips.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "china_policy (secondary via commodity-policy sensitivity)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Lack of fresh, specific disruption confirmation inside the last ~6h window in the admitted corpus."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-copper-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy headline flow is a volatility amplifier for copper: it can quickly shift price expectations (growth vs restrictions), increasing whipsaw/reversal risk even if the baseline bias remains bullish.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-copper-001",
 "B-copper-002",
 "B-copper-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 112,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 262,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Counts are a conservative roll-up from admitted trend-level authority_tier_counts (may double-count overlapping evidence records across trends)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_24h_proxy_events": 13,
 "stale_gt_72h_background_present": true,
 "note": "Freshness proxy is derived from available per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps, not full evidence timestamp distributions."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "policy_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Trade-policy headline flow is present and fresh; it can flip growth expectations quickly, elevating reversal/whipsaw risk despite bullish demand/supply narratives."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_sampling_limit",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Signal timeseries uses only the per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps available in this baton; full per-record timestamp distributions were not provided."
 },
 {
 "flag": "single_source_outlier_overhang",
 "market": "copper",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "VIP/risk anomalies include single-source items (e.g., Millberry scrap copper; China industrial production singleton) that should not dominate conviction but can add noise."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh demand-support narratives (grid/electrification/infrastructure) persist through the next 6h window without material opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional trade-policy headlines (tariffs/export controls/trade investigations) arrive within the next 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h), independently-sourced opposing macro/growth signal appears and contradiction ratio rises materially vs current low-contradiction set."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next cycle shows a sharp increase in genuine counterevidence (not just missing confirmation) alongside fading freshness."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "acceleration_score": -30,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 30,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
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 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 45,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -45,
 "acceleration_score": -90,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 45,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 60,
 "acceleration_score": 60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -60,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 60,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided (workflow5b_output.contradictions empty; contradiction_record_ids empty on admitted trends), so actual_counterevidence is treated as low.",
 "Prior market state was not provided to 6B; state_change defaults to new_bullish when current state is bullish under unknown_prior.",
 "Timeseries is computed from the limited per-trend source_ref_sample timestamps included in this baton and should be treated as a conservative shape signal, not a full evidence histogram."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}