Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures (BRN)
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: volatility_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-07 15:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-001 |
Geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk is sustaining a near-term crude risk-premium, biasing Brent upwards over the next 6 hours. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
55 |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-002 |
Refining constraints/outage headlines are reinforcing supply tightness narratives, supporting Brent over the next 24 hours. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
| crude_oil |
B-CRUDE-003 |
Macro/interest-rate framing is a non-trivial counterweight that may limit follow-through beyond the immediate geopolitical impulse, increasing the odds of choppy price action. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260407T150500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-07T15:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures (BRN)",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk is sustaining a near-term crude risk-premium, biasing Brent upwards over the next 6 hours.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoints",
"opec_supply_policy (headline sensitivity)",
"inventory_storage precautionary premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro-demand/interest-rate narrative could cap upside if risk sentiment shifts quickly",
"Any credible signals of de-escalation would rapidly compress the risk premium"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refining constraints/outage headlines are reinforcing supply tightness narratives, supporting Brent over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"refining_constraints",
"refinery_outages",
"downstream bottleneck risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply response / production-increase messaging could offset outage impact",
"Demand softness narratives could reassert if macro risk dominates"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CRUDE-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/interest-rate framing is a non-trivial counterweight that may limit follow-through beyond the immediate geopolitical impulse, increasing the odds of choppy price action.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"rates/financial-conditions narrative",
"risk-off sentiment spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If supply-risk headlines intensify, geopolitics can dominate macro for this horizon"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CRUDE-001",
"B-CRUDE-002",
"B-CRUDE-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 3,
"C": 0,
"D": 22,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 18,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 30,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Geopolitical/chokepoint-driven oil risk premium can flip quickly on de-escalation headlines; elevated headline sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "volatility_risk",
"severity": "high",
"details": "High concentration of geopolitics + refinery constraint themes implies heightened intraday volatility risk."
},
{
"flag": "data_overlap_risk",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Large evidence bundles across multiple trends likely reuse overlapping mainstream sources; avoid over-interpreting raw evidence-count totals."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Further fresh confirmation (<=6h) of escalation/supply disruption or chokepoint constraint headlines without credible de-escalation signals."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent, fresh (<=2h) de-escalation/flow-normalisation signals OR a clear contradiction spike versus the prior cycle."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline cadence (geopolitics/refining outages) persists; expect wider intraday swings even if direction remains bullish."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if fresh counter-evidence becomes dominant and directional mass drops below bullish threshold (net directional score < +20)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.03,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 75,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 75,
"velocity_score": 15,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 80,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 80,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 12,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -15,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-07T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-07T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 80,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 22,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradictory records were provided in admitted inputs; reversal risk is driven by known geopolitics headline reflexivity rather than observed counterevidence mass.",
"State-change uses unknown prior-state fallback; emitted as 'unchanged' to avoid false transition calls.",
"A very recent risk-anomaly timestamp appears after the final timeseries bucket window; timeseries remains a strict 24x1h closed-bucket view."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}