Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures (SI)
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-macro-whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T12:58:30Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B1-macro-rates-safehaven Macro/rates expectations + safe-haven framing are providing net supportive pressure for silver over the next 6–24h window. 62 up accelerating 24h false 55
silver B2-industrial-solar Industrial demand narratives (notably solar/manufacturing expansion themes) remain a supportive background bid for silver, but are slower-burn vs the macro impulse. 57 up stable 24h false 55
silver B3-supply-tightness Mine/supply-constraint narratives are modestly supportive but are not the dominant near-term driver versus macro. 53 up fading 24h false 55

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260406T125830Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T12:58:30Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures (SI)",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1-macro-rates-safehaven",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Macro/rates expectations + safe-haven framing are providing net supportive pressure for silver over the next 6\u201324h window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "isolated negative/one-off signals without corroboration (thin counterevidence)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2-industrial-solar",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial demand narratives (notably solar/manufacturing expansion themes) remain a supportive background bid for silver, but are slower-burn vs the macro impulse.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "lack of sharp fresh acceleration versus macro-driven signals"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3-supply-tightness",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Mine/supply-constraint narratives are modestly supportive but are not the dominant near-term driver versus macro.",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "weak near-term impulse relative to macro/rates narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1-macro-rates-safehaven",
 "B2-industrial-solar",
 "B3-supply-tightness"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 199,
 "B": 25,
 "C": 14,
 "D": 289,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_0_6h": 4,
 "signals_6_24h": 6,
 "signals_24_72h": 2,
 "signals_gt_72h": 0
 },
 "regime_state": "tightening"
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-macro-whipsaw",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Macro/rates-expectations dominance increases whipsaw risk; narrative can flip quickly on fresh central-bank or geopolitical updates."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-counterevidence-thin",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Observed counterevidence is present but thin/isolated; reversal risk is driven more by macro instability than by strong opposing evidence mass."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-echo-risk-vip",
 "market": "silver",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "Several VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk; do not treat as primary direction setters."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/rates-supportive evidence persists through the next 6h buckets without contradiction ratio rising materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent opposing signals arrive inside a 2h window (late-breaking sentinel conditions), or contradiction ratio spikes."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If macro/rates headlines accelerate (fresh evidence count rises) while net sentiment oscillates across buckets."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed compresses back inside [-20,+20] for 3+ consecutive 1h buckets."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 45,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 17,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 17,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 39,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
 "No explicit contradiction set detected in provided trends; reversal_risk driven by macro sensitivity rather than fresh opposing evidence mass.",
 "source_tier_counts are summed from admitted trend evidence_bundle tier counts and may be non-deduplicated due to record overlap.",
 "state_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided (unknown prior)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}