Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures (SI)
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-macro-whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T12:58:30Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B1-macro-rates-safehaven | Macro/rates expectations + safe-haven framing are providing net supportive pressure for silver over the next 6–24h window. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 55 |
| silver | B2-industrial-solar | Industrial demand narratives (notably solar/manufacturing expansion themes) remain a supportive background bid for silver, but are slower-burn vs the macro impulse. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| silver | B3-supply-tightness | Mine/supply-constraint narratives are modestly supportive but are not the dominant near-term driver versus macro. | 53 | up | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260406T125830Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T12:58:30Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures (SI)",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1-macro-rates-safehaven",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Macro/rates expectations + safe-haven framing are providing net supportive pressure for silver over the next 6\u201324h window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"isolated negative/one-off signals without corroboration (thin counterevidence)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2-industrial-solar",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial demand narratives (notably solar/manufacturing expansion themes) remain a supportive background bid for silver, but are slower-burn vs the macro impulse.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"lack of sharp fresh acceleration versus macro-driven signals"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3-supply-tightness",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Mine/supply-constraint narratives are modestly supportive but are not the dominant near-term driver versus macro.",
"probability_pct": 53,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"weak near-term impulse relative to macro/rates narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1-macro-rates-safehaven",
"B2-industrial-solar",
"B3-supply-tightness"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 199,
"B": 25,
"C": 14,
"D": 289,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 4,
"signals_6_24h": 6,
"signals_24_72h": 2,
"signals_gt_72h": 0
},
"regime_state": "tightening"
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-macro-whipsaw",
"market": "silver",
"level": "medium",
"description": "Macro/rates-expectations dominance increases whipsaw risk; narrative can flip quickly on fresh central-bank or geopolitical updates."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-counterevidence-thin",
"market": "silver",
"level": "low",
"description": "Observed counterevidence is present but thin/isolated; reversal risk is driven more by macro instability than by strong opposing evidence mass."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-echo-risk-vip",
"market": "silver",
"level": "low",
"description": "Several VIP outliers are single-source with echo-risk; do not treat as primary direction setters."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/rates-supportive evidence persists through the next 6h buckets without contradiction ratio rising materially."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent opposing signals arrive inside a 2h window (late-breaking sentinel conditions), or contradiction ratio spikes."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If macro/rates headlines accelerate (fresh evidence count rises) while net sentiment oscillates across buckets."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If directional_score_signed compresses back inside [-20,+20] for 3+ consecutive 1h buckets."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: analyzed_markets=['silver'].",
"No explicit contradiction set detected in provided trends; reversal_risk driven by macro sensitivity rather than fresh opposing evidence mass.",
"source_tier_counts are summed from admitted trend evidence_bundle tier counts and may be non-deduplicated due to record overlap.",
"state_change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided (unknown prior)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}