- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: ""
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-SILVER-001 (contradiction_spike, medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T22:12:38Z
- sentiment_word: Bearish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| silver |
B-SILVER-1 |
Near-term monetary tightening / higher real-rate expectations are a net headwind for silver futures over the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
down |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SILVER-2 |
Industrial demand tailwinds (solar manufacturing / electronics) plus supply tightness remain supportive, but are more medium-term than immediate. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| silver |
B-SILVER-3 |
Safe-haven / investment-flow support is present but episodic; it can offset macro headwinds in bursts, increasing whipsaw risk. |
54 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
58 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260406T221238Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T22:12:38Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-1",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term monetary tightening / higher real-rate expectations are a net headwind for silver futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"real_rates",
"usd_strength"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-2",
"B-SILVER-3"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-2",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial demand tailwinds (solar manufacturing / electronics) plus supply tightness remain supportive, but are more medium-term than immediate.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"mine_supply"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-SILVER-3",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Safe-haven / investment-flow support is present but episodic; it can offset macro headwinds in bursts, increasing whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows",
"monetary_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-SILVER-1"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bearish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bearish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-SILVER-1"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 190,
"B": 20,
"C": 12,
"D": 282,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_trend_count": 7,
"fresh_6_24h_trend_count": 4,
"stale_over_24h_trend_count": 0,
"notes": [
"Freshness mix derived from each admitted trend's evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-001",
"market": "silver",
"type": "contradiction_spike",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Macro tightening/real-rate headwind (bearish) coexists with strong industrial-demand/support narratives (bullish), raising signal conflict."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-002",
"market": "silver",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Safe-haven/investment-flow signals appear episodic relative to macro-rate narratives, increasing short-horizon whipsaw risk."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-003",
"market": "silver",
"type": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no very-recent opposing cluster within the last ~2h of snapshot)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_short_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bearish watch while fresh macro-tightening/real-rate signals remain dominant and not offset by a fresh, multi-source safe-haven/industrial-demand surge."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h), multi-source safe-haven/investment-flow burst appears alongside easing-rate expectations (counter-evidence) and contradiction ratio rises."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Monitor for volatility when macro-rate expectations and safe-haven narratives alternate dominance within adjacent hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": -25,
"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
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"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 50,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 20,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -40,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 55,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -70,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 5,
"bearish_pressure_score": 60,
"net_sentiment_score": -55,
"velocity_score": -55,
"acceleration_score": -55,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 55,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 55,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = silver.",
"One trend ('mining exploration (gold mining)') not admitted due to ambiguous market mapping to silver (possible gold-primary signal).",
"Hourly timeseries is constructed from per-trend newest evidence timestamps (trend-level updates), not full per-record tick data; sparse buckets reflect missing per-record timing in the provided payload."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}