• subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: ""
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-SILVER-001 (contradiction_spike, medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T22:12:38Z
  • sentiment_word: Bearish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-SILVER-1 Near-term monetary tightening / higher real-rate expectations are a net headwind for silver futures over the next 6–24 hours. 62 down accelerating 6h false 58
silver B-SILVER-2 Industrial demand tailwinds (solar manufacturing / electronics) plus supply tightness remain supportive, but are more medium-term than immediate. 58 up stable 24h false 58
silver B-SILVER-3 Safe-haven / investment-flow support is present but episodic; it can offset macro headwinds in bursts, increasing whipsaw risk. 54 mixed fading 6h false 58
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-20260406T221238Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T22:12:38Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bearish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-1",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term monetary tightening / higher real-rate expectations are a net headwind for silver futures over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-2",
 "B-SILVER-3"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-2",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial demand tailwinds (solar manufacturing / electronics) plus supply tightness remain supportive, but are more medium-term than immediate.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "mine_supply"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-SILVER-3",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Safe-haven / investment-flow support is present but episodic; it can offset macro headwinds in bursts, increasing whipsaw risk.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows",
 "monetary_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-SILVER-1"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bearish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bearish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-SILVER-1"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 190,
 "B": 20,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 282,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_trend_count": 7,
 "fresh_6_24h_trend_count": 4,
 "stale_over_24h_trend_count": 0,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness mix derived from each admitted trend's evidence_recency_proxy.newest_timestamp."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "contradiction_spike",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Macro tightening/real-rate headwind (bearish) coexists with strong industrial-demand/support narratives (bullish), raising signal conflict."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Safe-haven/investment-flow signals appear episodic relative to macro-rate narratives, increasing short-horizon whipsaw risk."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-SILVER-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "type": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel not triggered (no very-recent opposing cluster within the last ~2h of snapshot)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_short_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bearish watch while fresh macro-tightening/real-rate signals remain dominant and not offset by a fresh, multi-source safe-haven/industrial-demand surge."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal watch if a fresh (<=2h), multi-source safe-haven/investment-flow burst appears alongside easing-rate expectations (counter-evidence) and contradiction ratio rises."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Monitor for volatility when macro-rate expectations and safe-haven narratives alternate dominance within adjacent hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
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 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 5,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 60,
 "net_sentiment_score": -55,
 "velocity_score": -55,
 "acceleration_score": -55,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 55,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 55,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bearish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code = silver.",
 "One trend ('mining exploration (gold mining)') not admitted due to ambiguous market mapping to silver (possible gold-primary signal).",
 "Hourly timeseries is constructed from per-trend newest evidence timestamps (trend-level updates), not full per-record tick data; sparse buckets reflect missing per-record timing in the provided payload."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}