Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T23:02:04Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim (trimmed) |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B1 |
Near-term natural gas futures have upside bias as LNG/export and upstream supply-disruption risk-premium remains elevated (Qatar/LNG corridor focus) within the next 6–24 hours. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
60 |
| natural_gas |
B2 |
European gas corridor infrastructure-security narratives (pipeline disruption / sabotage risk) are reinforcing a risk-premium that can spill over into global gas/LNG pricing expectations over the next 6–24 hours. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
60 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-natural_gas-20260406T230204Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:02:04Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures have upside bias as LNG/export and upstream supply-disruption risk-premium remains elevated (Qatar/LNG corridor focus) within the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "European gas corridor infrastructure-security narratives (pipeline disruption / sabotage risk) are reinforcing a risk-premium that can spill over into global gas/LNG pricing expectations over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 111,
"B": 3,
"C": 2,
"D": 119,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 58,
"fresh_6_24h": 122,
"stale_24_72h": 36,
"stale_72h_plus": 12
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Current admitted signal set is dominated by geopolitics/infrastructure/LNG disruption themes; limited explicit evidence on storage levels, domestic weather-driven demand, or production data within this cycle."
},
{
"flag": "event_driven_fragility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Upside bias is largely risk-premium/event-driven; resolution/de-escalation can compress premium quickly even without explicit counter-signals."
},
{
"flag": "seed_level_outage_unconfirmed",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Some outage-related risk anomalies appear seed-level (evidence not materialised), increasing uncertainty even though direction is consistent with the broader disruption thesis."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional fresh multi-source confirmation of LNG/pipeline disruption OR escalation headlines within the next 6h, with no fresh counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline flow around LNG infrastructure/outages or de-escalation signals; expect fast repricing risk-premium."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) counter-signals indicating disruption risk is resolved/false alarm, or credible confirmation of uninterrupted flows."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:02:04Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:02:04Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
"Directional mapping used: supply disruption / LNG logistics risk / pipeline security risk => bullish price pressure for natural gas futures.",
"No explicit fresh counterevidence was present in the admitted corpus (contradictions array empty).",
"State_change computed with unknown prior state; baseline assumed neutral_mixed for state-machine transition."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}