Snapshot

  • subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: natural_gas
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: driver_coverage_gap (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T23:02:04Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B1 Near-term natural gas futures have upside bias as LNG/export and upstream supply-disruption risk-premium remains elevated (Qatar/LNG corridor focus) within the next 6–24 hours. 62 up accelerating 24h false 60
natural_gas B2 European gas corridor infrastructure-security narratives (pipeline disruption / sabotage risk) are reinforcing a risk-premium that can spill over into global gas/LNG pricing expectations over the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 24h false 60

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-natural_gas-20260406T230204Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:02:04Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term natural gas futures have upside bias as LNG/export and upstream supply-disruption risk-premium remains elevated (Qatar/LNG corridor focus) within the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "lng_export_flows",
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "production_outages",
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "European gas corridor infrastructure-security narratives (pipeline disruption / sabotage risk) are reinforcing a risk-premium that can spill over into global gas/LNG pricing expectations over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "pipeline_infrastructure",
 "energy_geopolitics"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "low",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 111,
 "B": 3,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 119,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 58,
 "fresh_6_24h": 122,
 "stale_24_72h": 36,
 "stale_72h_plus": 12
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "driver_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Current admitted signal set is dominated by geopolitics/infrastructure/LNG disruption themes; limited explicit evidence on storage levels, domestic weather-driven demand, or production data within this cycle."
 },
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_fragility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Upside bias is largely risk-premium/event-driven; resolution/de-escalation can compress premium quickly even without explicit counter-signals."
 },
 {
 "flag": "seed_level_outage_unconfirmed",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Some outage-related risk anomalies appear seed-level (evidence not materialised), increasing uncertainty even though direction is consistent with the broader disruption thesis."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional fresh multi-source confirmation of LNG/pipeline disruption OR escalation headlines within the next 6h, with no fresh counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Rapid headline flow around LNG infrastructure/outages or de-escalation signals; expect fast repricing risk-premium."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) counter-signals indicating disruption risk is resolved/false alarm, or credible confirmation of uninterrupted flows."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 55,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 7,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:02:04Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:02:04Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 8,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=natural_gas.",
 "Directional mapping used: supply disruption / LNG logistics risk / pipeline security risk => bullish price pressure for natural gas futures.",
 "No explicit fresh counterevidence was present in the admitted corpus (contradictions array empty).",
 "State_change computed with unknown prior state; baseline assumed neutral_mixed for state-machine transition."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}