Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitics_dominant_driver
- generated_at: 2026-04-06 15:12 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Geopolitical escalation / infrastructure-security narratives around key LNG regions and routes are sustaining a near-term risk premium bias in natural gas-linked pricing. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
63 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Event-driven LNG outage/disruption headlines (even if unconfirmed) are increasing implied volatility and skewing short-horizon positioning toward upside protection. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-003 |
Because the current corpus is dominated by geopolitics rather than storage/production/weather fundamentals, the bullish bias is fragile and prone to fast mean-reversion if escalation fears fade. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
52 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_20260406T151200Z_v1",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T15:12:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Geopolitical escalation / infrastructure-security narratives around key LNG regions and routes are sustaining a near-term risk premium bias in natural gas-linked pricing.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Event-driven LNG outage/disruption headlines (even if unconfirmed) are increasing implied volatility and skewing short-horizon positioning toward upside protection.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"lng_export_flows",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"energy_geopolitics"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-003",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Because the current corpus is dominated by geopolitics rather than storage/production/weather fundamentals, the bullish bias is fragile and prone to fast mean-reversion if escalation fears fade.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_in_fundamentals",
"headline_volatility"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002",
"B-NG-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 10,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 5,
"older_than_24h_signal_count": 1,
"note": "Counts are signal-item level (trends/vip/risk objects), not full per-record evidence counts."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitics_dominant_driver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Directional bias is primarily risk-premium driven; domestic fundamentals (storage/production/weather) are not prominent in the admitted signal set."
},
{
"flag": "headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Multiple fresh geopolitical/infrastructure narratives imply elevated whipsaw risk on any de-escalation headlines."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Limited direct storage/production/seasonal-demand evidence in the provided corpus for this cycle."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias label while fresh disruption/geopolitical items continue to arrive without meaningful opposing evidence in the last 6h."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If additional outage/shipping-route/security headlines appear within the next 6h, treat the regime as higher-variance even if direction remains bullish."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If the next cycle introduces fresh de-escalation / supply-restoration confirmations (2+ independent sources within 2h), downgrade to neutral_mixed and raise reversal risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 47,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided (no trend_state_memory / prior state table). state_change set to 'unchanged' as a safe default under unknown_prior.",
"Admitted signal set is heavily geopolitics/LNG-route/infrastructure oriented; weather/storage/production arenas are under-represented in this cycle.",
"Timeseries is conservative and derived from signal-object recency (trend/vip/risk timestamps) rather than full per-record timestamp reconstruction."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}