Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T23:30:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B1 | Lithium futures exhibit an upward bias over the next 24h driven by broad, fresh demand-side EV/battery expansion signals and reinforcing lithium supply-chain investment narratives (low explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus). | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| lithium | B2 | Near-term (6h) lithium futures bias remains mildly positive but is fragile due to elevated short-term policy/regulatory uncertainty signals that could introduce whipsaw without providing confirmed opposing price-direction evidence. | 55 | up | stable | 6h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-06T23:30:00Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Lithium futures exhibit an upward bias over the next 24h driven by broad, fresh demand-side EV/battery expansion signals and reinforcing lithium supply-chain investment narratives (low explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus).",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption / battery build-out signals",
"Lithium extraction / supply-chain investment narrative reinforcement",
"Battery chemistry/technology development activity linked to lithium ecosystem"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Non-directional late-breaking regulatory/customs risk seeds with thin evidence (adds uncertainty rather than direct down-signal)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures bias remains mildly positive but is fragile due to elevated short-term policy/regulatory uncertainty signals that could introduce whipsaw without providing confirmed opposing price-direction evidence.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh same-day evidence prints across lithium ecosystem themes",
"Broad source diversity supporting demand-side narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Short-horizon operational/regulatory risk alerts with unmaterialised evidence bundles"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 79,
"B": 7,
"C": 9,
"D": 112,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
"stale_gt_24h_background_est": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "Short-horizon regulatory/operational risk seeds appeared late in the cycle with thin evidence bundles; treat as uncertainty amplifier rather than confirmed opposing direction."
},
{
"flag": "timeseries_sparsity",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "lithium",
"details": "Signal timeseries buckets are derived from limited timestamp samples available in-message; bucket metrics should be treated as conservative/partial."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh corroboration continues and contradiction remains low over the next 6\u201324h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if additional short-horizon policy/customs signals materialise with real multi-source evidence."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if fresh, genuinely opposing lithium-price evidence emerges from 2+ independent sources within a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation sentinel criteria)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -36,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:30:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 35,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -17,
"acceleration_score": -52,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -18,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 36,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 17,
"acceleration_score": 17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -35,
"acceleration_score": -52,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 35,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 18,
"acceleration_score": 18,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -10,
"acceleration_score": -28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 10,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 5,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral_mixed).",
"Admitted trend set focused on lithium-explicit and lithium-supply-chain-linked themes; some broader EV narratives were not force-mapped when lithium linkage was weak.",
"No explicit contradictory price-direction records present in the admitted corpus; reversal_risk elevated to medium due to late-cycle regulatory/operational uncertainty seeds."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}