Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: lithium
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T23:30:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B1 Lithium futures exhibit an upward bias over the next 24h driven by broad, fresh demand-side EV/battery expansion signals and reinforcing lithium supply-chain investment narratives (low explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus). 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
lithium B2 Near-term (6h) lithium futures bias remains mildly positive but is fragile due to elevated short-term policy/regulatory uncertainty signals that could introduce whipsaw without providing confirmed opposing price-direction evidence. 55 up stable 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-06T23:30:00Z-lithium",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Lithium futures exhibit an upward bias over the next 24h driven by broad, fresh demand-side EV/battery expansion signals and reinforcing lithium supply-chain investment narratives (low explicit counterevidence in the admitted corpus).",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption / battery build-out signals",
 "Lithium extraction / supply-chain investment narrative reinforcement",
 "Battery chemistry/technology development activity linked to lithium ecosystem"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Non-directional late-breaking regulatory/customs risk seeds with thin evidence (adds uncertainty rather than direct down-signal)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures bias remains mildly positive but is fragile due to elevated short-term policy/regulatory uncertainty signals that could introduce whipsaw without providing confirmed opposing price-direction evidence.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh same-day evidence prints across lithium ecosystem themes",
 "Broad source diversity supporting demand-side narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Short-horizon operational/regulatory risk alerts with unmaterialised evidence bundles"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 79,
 "B": 7,
 "C": 9,
 "D": 112,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 8,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 4,
 "stale_gt_24h_background_est": 1
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Short-horizon regulatory/operational risk seeds appeared late in the cycle with thin evidence bundles; treat as uncertainty amplifier rather than confirmed opposing direction."
 },
 {
 "flag": "timeseries_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "lithium",
 "details": "Signal timeseries buckets are derived from limited timestamp samples available in-message; bucket metrics should be treated as conservative/partial."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh corroboration continues and contradiction remains low over the next 6\u201324h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if additional short-horizon policy/customs signals materialise with real multi-source evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch if fresh, genuinely opposing lithium-price evidence emerges from 2+ independent sources within a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation sentinel criteria)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -36,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 35,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -17,
 "acceleration_score": -52,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -18,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 36,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -35,
 "acceleration_score": -52,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 35,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 18,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": -10,
 "acceleration_score": -28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 10,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 5,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral_mixed).",
 "Admitted trend set focused on lithium-explicit and lithium-supply-chain-linked themes; some broader EV narratives were not force-mapped when lithium linkage was weak.",
 "No explicit contradictory price-direction records present in the admitted corpus; reversal_risk elevated to medium due to late-cycle regulatory/operational uncertainty seeds."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}