Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: driver_two_sidedness (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06 16:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-001 |
Near-term demand-side narrative (EV adoption/electrification) net supportive versus 24h baseline. |
66 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
48 |
| lithium |
B-LI-002 |
Supply/production capacity narratives partially offset demand-driven bullishness, increasing two-sided risk. |
58 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
48 |
| lithium |
B-LI-003 |
Recent China-linked operational risk seed elevates volatility/fragility more than it changes direction. |
62 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
48 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_lithium_20260406T160500Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T16:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-001",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term demand-side narrative (EV adoption / electrification) is net supportive for lithium futures versus the last 24h baseline.",
"probability_pct": 66,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Broad EV adoption/electrification coverage across multiple large-source bundles with fresh timestamps",
"Late-surge recency profile present in the admitted trend set (fresh directional impulse)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-002",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply/production capacity narratives (extraction / refining / capacity expansion) partially offset demand-driven bullishness, increasing two-sided risk.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Multiple admitted supply-chain/extraction/capacity trends present alongside demand narratives",
"Evidence spans >7d in several trends (background persistence rather than pure fresh impulse)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-LI-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-003",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "A very recent China-linked operational risk seed (thin evidence) elevates volatility/fragility more than it changes direction.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Risk anomaly present with very recent timestamp but seed-level evidence only (data sparsity)",
"High stated impact despite low confidence increases fragility"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-001",
"B-LI-002",
"B-LI-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 165,
"B": 19,
"C": 19,
"D": 225,
"U": 0,
"note": "Counts are aggregated from admitted trend bundles (may include duplication across overlapping corpora)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count_est": 6,
"stale_24_72h_signal_count_est": 1,
"stale_over_72h_signal_count_est": 0
},
"regime_state": "tightening",
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 34,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": "No admitted fresh opposing-direction trend mass; reversal risk is driven by mixed driver balance (demand vs supply) and a thin but very recent operational risk seed."
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "driver_two_sidedness",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Demand-supportive EV adoption narratives coexist with supply/capacity narratives, increasing chop risk."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "data_sparsity_risk_anomaly_seed",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A very recent operational risk anomaly is present but with seed-level evidence only; increases fragility more than direction."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "authority_skew_to_lower_tiers",
"severity": "low",
"note": "Authority confirmation exists but a meaningful share of coverage sits in lower tiers; conviction remains primarily mass-consensus driven under balanced policy."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh EV-demand supportive evidence persists over the next 6h without a matching fresh opposing (supply/slowdown) impulse."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the thin operational risk seed gains corroboration (2+ independent records) within the next 2\u20136h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a new, fresh, clearly bearish lithium-specific price driver appears and contradiction ratio rises materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 21,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 23,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 17,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 17,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 19,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 19,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 11,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 16,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming unknown_prior baseline (treated as neutral) -> new_bullish.",
"No explicit admitted contradictory trend objects were provided; reversal_risk elevated to medium due to two-sided driver mix and a very recent but thin risk anomaly seed."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}