Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T23:03:29Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-001 Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound than trend strongly over the next 6–24h due to stale/mixed driver signals and lack of fresh confirmation. 58 flat fading 24h false 78
gold B-GOLD-002 Downside pressure is plausible in the next 24h if the real-rate narrative reasserts (higher yields / tighter policy tone), but probability is capped by limited fresh evidence in the current window. 46 down stable 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-04-06T23:03:29Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:03:29Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures are more likely to trade mixed/rangebound than trend strongly over the next 6\u201324h due to stale/mixed driver signals and lack of fresh confirmation.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates (stale macro-policy signal set)",
 "geopolitical_risk (stale conflict-risk backdrop)",
 "etf_investment_flows / physical_demand (thin/no fresh reads)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Downside pressure is plausible in the next 24h if the real-rate narrative reasserts (higher yields / tighter policy tone), but probability is capped by limited fresh evidence in the current window.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates (policy/yields theme present but stale)",
 "usd_strength (no fresh direct signal available)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-GOLD-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 34,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 38,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-001",
 "B-GOLD-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 22,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 25,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_evidence_count_0_24h": 0,
 "mid_evidence_count_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count_gt_72h": 4,
 "dominant": "stale"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "No material fresh (<=72h) gold-directional evidence observed in the admitted set; signal is therefore fragile."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Most relevant driver evidence timestamps cluster in 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; stale-suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Macro (real rates) vs risk-off (geopolitics) drivers remain conceptually opposed; without fresh updates, directional inference is unstable."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If no fresh corroborating gold-specific signals appear in the next 6h, maintain a non-committal stance.",
 "action_label": "stay_flat"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh high-authority macro prints materially shift real-rates expectations (or USD strength) within <=2h, treat as potential direction setter.",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch"
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If a fresh opposing cluster (>=2 independent records within 2h) appears against any newly forming bias, elevate reversal monitoring.",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch"
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 85,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 1,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as gold.",
 "Admitted evidence relevant to gold is predominantly stale (most timestamps 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), so stale-suppression applied and direction held at neutral_mixed.",
 "No late-breaking invalidation sentinel triggered (no <=2h opposing cluster within admitted gold-relevant set).",
 "Hourly timeseries reflects lack of fresh (last-24h) admitted gold-relevant evidence; kept conservative conviction with high fragility."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}