Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-GOLD-1 Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed over the next 6h–24h due to lack of fresh gold-specific evidence and reliance on stale, low-density signals. 56 mixed fading 6h false 78
gold B-GOLD-2 Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus conviction because the small available signal set is internally mixed and not recently corroborated. 52 mixed stable 24h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260406T000000Z-gold",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-1",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold futures sentiment is neutral/mixed over the next 6h\u201324h due to lack of fresh gold-specific evidence and reliance on stale, low-density signals.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "data_sparsity_in_gold_specific_signals",
 "stale_evidence_overhang_gt_72h",
 "mixed_singleton_inputs_(GLD_vs_trade_disruption)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-GOLD-2",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Reversal/whipsaw risk is elevated versus conviction because the small available signal set is internally mixed and not recently corroborated.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "thin_evidence_base",
 "mixed_directional_impulses",
 "no_recent_confirmations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "invalidated_stale",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 78,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-GOLD-1",
 "B-GOLD-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Gold-specific admitted evidence is low-density and not corroborated across multiple fresh sources."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "high",
 "details": "Gold-related signals are predominantly >72h old; stale suppression applied."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "gold",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Small mixed signal set (positive GLD dynamics vs negative trade/logistics disruption) increases fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral unless fresh (<24h) gold-specific drivers (real rates, USD, central bank/ETF flows, or high-trust geopolitics directly linked to gold demand) appear and build multi-source directional mass."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a high-trust, very recent (<6h) macro/geopolitical catalyst produces rapid contradiction changes in the corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Enable reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence (2+ independent records within 2h) emerges against any newly forming directional thesis."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
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 {
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 0,
 "cross_domain_merges": 0,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": true,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to gold; analysis constrained to gold only.",
 "No gold-mapped multi-source trend items were admitted; available gold-related inputs are singleton VIP-style items and are stale (>72h), so stale suppression applied and direction held at neutral/mixed.",
 "Reversal risk set to medium primarily due to high fragility (thin, mixed evidence), not due to fresh opposing acceleration; no late-breaking invalidation detected."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}