Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: copper
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-CU-001 (narrative_whipsaw)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T13:20:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-CU-001 Near-term copper pricing bias remains to the upside as supply-disruption narratives (major producers/mines) and perceived market tightness outweigh opposing evidence in the most recent news... 62 up accelerating 24h false 54
copper B-CU-002 Copper remains supported by broad energy-transition and grid/infrastructure build-out narratives, sustaining positive sentiment across diverse sources over the next 6–24 hours. 58 up stable 6h false 54
copper B-CU-003 Trade-policy and tariff-related headlines increase short-horizon volatility risk and can cap upside, even while the broader bias stays positive. 46 mixed stable 6h false 54

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260406-copper-0001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T13:20:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures (HG)",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper pricing bias remains to the upside as supply-disruption narratives (major producers/mines) and perceived market tightness outweigh opposing evidence in the most recent news window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks",
 "industrial_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CU-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Copper remains supported by broad energy-transition and grid/infrastructure build-out narratives, sustaining positive sentiment across diverse sources over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CU-003"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CU-003",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Trade-policy and tariff-related headlines increase short-horizon volatility risk and can cap upside, even while the broader bias stays positive.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CU-001",
 "B-CU-002",
 "B-CU-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 163,
 "B": 13,
 "C": 7,
 "D": 333,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 55,
 "fresh_6_24h": 85,
 "stale_gt_24h": 376,
 "note": "Freshness mix estimated from per-trend newest timestamps and ongoing updates; counts are overlap-prone because evidence records can be shared across trends."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CU-001",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Trade-policy/tariff narratives present and can rapidly reprice sentiment despite broadly positive demand/supply framing."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-CU-002",
 "market": "copper",
 "type": "authority_vs_mass_mix",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Directional mass is broad with meaningful Tier-A presence, but the overall corpus still contains a large low-tier share; monitor for echo/concentration effects."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh (<=24h) multi-source updates continue to align with supply-tightness and grid/energy-transition demand narratives without new opposing clusters."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (multiple independent records within 6h) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence emerges (>=2 independent records in <=2h) that directly weakens the demand/tightness thesis."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 21,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 21,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 18,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 17,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 16,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 16,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 16,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 16,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 16,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 15,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 15,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 15,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 15,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 15,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 7,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'copper'.",
 "No admitted contradictions/counterevidence records were provided in the input corpus; downside risk handled via fragility and narrative-whipsaw flags rather than counterevidence scoring.",
 "State change set to 'new_bullish' with unknown prior-state baseline (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided to compute a strict transition)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}