Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures (HG)
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-CU-001 (narrative_whipsaw)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T13:20:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-CU-001 | Near-term copper pricing bias remains to the upside as supply-disruption narratives (major producers/mines) and perceived market tightness outweigh opposing evidence in the most recent news... | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-CU-002 | Copper remains supported by broad energy-transition and grid/infrastructure build-out narratives, sustaining positive sentiment across diverse sources over the next 6–24 hours. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-CU-003 | Trade-policy and tariff-related headlines increase short-horizon volatility risk and can cap upside, even while the broader bias stays positive. | 46 | mixed | stable | 6h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260406-copper-0001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T13:20:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures (HG)",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper pricing bias remains to the upside as supply-disruption narratives (major producers/mines) and perceived market tightness outweigh opposing evidence in the most recent news window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"inventory_exchange_stocks",
"industrial_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper remains supported by broad energy-transition and grid/infrastructure build-out narratives, sustaining positive sentiment across diverse sources over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CU-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CU-003",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and tariff-related headlines increase short-horizon volatility risk and can cap upside, even while the broader bias stays positive.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CU-001",
"B-CU-002",
"B-CU-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 163,
"B": 13,
"C": 7,
"D": 333,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 55,
"fresh_6_24h": 85,
"stale_gt_24h": 376,
"note": "Freshness mix estimated from per-trend newest timestamps and ongoing updates; counts are overlap-prone because evidence records can be shared across trends."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CU-001",
"market": "copper",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy/tariff narratives present and can rapidly reprice sentiment despite broadly positive demand/supply framing."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-CU-002",
"market": "copper",
"type": "authority_vs_mass_mix",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Directional mass is broad with meaningful Tier-A presence, but the overall corpus still contains a large low-tier share; monitor for echo/concentration effects."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch if fresh (<=24h) multi-source updates continue to align with supply-tightness and grid/energy-transition demand narratives without new opposing clusters."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if trade-policy headlines accelerate (multiple independent records within 6h) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Upgrade to reversal watch only if fresh opposing evidence emerges (>=2 independent records in <=2h) that directly weakens the demand/tightness thesis."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 18,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
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"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 1,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 17,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 16,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 16,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 16,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 16,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 16,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 15,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 15,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 15,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 15,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 15,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 52,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 7,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'copper'.",
"No admitted contradictions/counterevidence records were provided in the input corpus; downside risk handled via fragility and narrative-whipsaw flags rather than counterevidence scoring.",
"State change set to 'new_bullish' with unknown prior-state baseline (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table provided to compute a strict transition)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}