Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-TRADE_POLICY_VOL (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T13:18:08Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B1 Near-term copper pricing bias remains upward as copper mine supply-disruption narratives (notably Chile/Codelco-linked operational disruption threads) stay active and recently refreshed. 66 up stable 24h false 48
copper B2 Cross-domain demand tailwinds (grid modernisation, renewables deployment, infrastructure build-out / urbanisation) continue to support a higher copper-demand narrative over the next 6–24 hours. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
copper B3 US–China trade-policy headline flow increases volatility and can generate rapid reversals even when the underlying copper demand/supply narrative remains supportive. 58 mixed accelerating 6h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_copper_20260406T131808Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T13:18:08Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Copper futures",
 "market_code": "copper"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "copper",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Near-term copper pricing bias remains upward as copper mine supply-disruption narratives (notably Chile/Codelco-linked operational disruption threads) stay active and recently refreshed.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "mine_supply_disruption",
 "supply_chain_disruption"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No explicit fresh opposing (bearish) supply-resolution signal was present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by macro/trade-policy volatility rather than direct counterevidence."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "Cross-domain demand tailwinds (grid modernisation, renewables deployment, infrastructure build-out / urbanisation) continue to support a higher copper-demand narrative over the next 6\u201324 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_transition_demand",
 "industrial_demand",
 "inventory_exchange_stocks"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Demand-side narratives are broader thematic signals and may not translate 1:1 into immediate futures direction without confirming price/inventory prints (not available in this run)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "copper",
 "claim": "US\u2013China trade-policy headline flow increases volatility and can generate rapid reversals even when the underlying copper demand/supply narrative remains supportive.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade_policy",
 "china_policy"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "The admitted corpus did not contain a strong, fresh, explicitly bearish copper-demand shock; risk is primarily a volatility/reversal amplifier."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 86,
 "B": 8,
 "C": 4,
 "D": 134,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "newest_signal_utc": "2026-04-06T13:18:08Z",
 "oldest_signal_utc": "2026-01-22T16:51:51Z",
 "span_hours_est": 1763.4,
 "fresh_0_24h_present": true,
 "stale_background_present": true
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-TRADE_POLICY_VOL",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Trade-policy headline flow is active and can cause short-horizon whipsaws despite supportive demand/supply narratives."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-STALE_CONTEXT_OVERHANG",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Several supporting narratives span weeks to months; while refreshed today, part of conviction rests on persistent background themes."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-PRICE_MAPPING_INFERENCE",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "medium",
 "description": "Signals are narrative/driver-based; this run does not include live price, inventory prints, or direct market microstructure confirmation."
 },
 {
 "risk_id": "RF-SINGLE_SOURCE_OUTLIERS",
 "market": "copper",
 "level": "low",
 "description": "VIP lane contains multiple single-source items (echo-risk flagged) which are not used as primary directional evidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain a long-bias watch if supply-disruption threads remain fresh over the next 6\u201324h and no fresh opposing demand shock enters the corpus."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Volatility watch: escalate if trade-policy headline frequency rises and directional consensus weakens (contradiction spike / mixed recent signals)."
 },
 {
 "market": "copper",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Reversal watch: activate if any fresh (<=2h) opposing copper-specific evidence appears from multiple independent sources (e.g., rapid supply normalisation or clear demand contraction signals)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "copper"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [],
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 6,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 0,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly to 'copper'; analysis constrained to single market.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were provided in the input; counterevidence scoring is therefore conservative and largely volatility-based (trade policy) rather than direct bearish copper fundamentals.",
 "Hourly timeseries buckets were not constructed because per-record timestamp distributions needed for bucket assignment were not available in the gated payload (only partial recency samples and span proxies were present).",
 "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend evidence_bundle tier counts and may be non-deduplicated across overlapping record sets."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}