Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-mapping-indirectness (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T14:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Coffee futures are more likely to remain rangebound over the next 24h as macro supply-chain/cost pressures are counterbalanced by mixed agricultural market-condition signals (no clean directional mass). 56 flat stable 24h false 57
coffee B-coffee-2 Upside price pressure risk exists (next 6–24h) from cost inflation + logistics disruption framing, but the signal is indirect-to-coffee and therefore fragile. 52 up fading 6h false 57
coffee B-coffee-3 Downside price pressure risk exists (next 24h) if 'trade expansion / improved market competition' narratives translate into perceived supply/availability improvement, but linkage to coffee futures is weak in this feed. 48 down stable 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260406T140000Z-coffee-KC",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee futures are more likely to remain rangebound over the next 24h as macro supply-chain/cost pressures are counterbalanced by mixed agricultural market-condition signals (no clean directional mass).",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "input/cost pressure narratives (ag inputs, labour, energy-linked costs)",
 "logistics/geopolitical shipping-risk narratives",
 "offsetting/mixed 'ag market conditions' signalling"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "any clearly coffee-specific crop/disease/weather shock emerging with tight timestamps",
 "any clearly coffee-specific demand shock narrative"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Upside price pressure risk exists (next 6\u201324h) from cost inflation + logistics disruption framing, but the signal is indirect-to-coffee and therefore fragile.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "production cost factor narratives",
 "shipping/logistics risk narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "evidence of improving supply/flows or easing logistics constraints",
 "coffee-specific production upgrades/harvest positives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Downside price pressure risk exists (next 24h) if 'trade expansion / improved market competition' narratives translate into perceived supply/availability improvement, but linkage to coffee futures is weak in this feed.",
 "probability_pct": 48,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "trade expansion / market competition narratives",
 "institutional ag-market-condition summaries"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh, coffee-specific supply disruption signals"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2",
 "B-coffee-3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 12,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 2,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 3,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 3,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 0
 },
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 10,
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 46,
 "reversal_triggered": false,
 "reversal_evidence_summary": [
 "Mixed driver sign: cost/logistics pressure vs market-condition/trade-expansion framing",
 "No explicit contradiction records supplied, but sentiment mix implies two-sided pressure"
 ],
 "thesis_kill_switch_reason": null
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-mapping-indirectness",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Many admitted signals are macro (inputs/logistics/geopolitics) and only indirectly map to coffee futures; directional inference is fragile."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-narrative-whipsaw",
 "market": "coffee",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Mixed positive/negative agricultural condition narratives increase whipsaw risk despite strong freshness."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance unless a coffee-specific supply/demand shock appears with multiple independent fresh sources (<=6h)."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if logistics/geopolitical disruption signals accelerate (multiple fresh records in <=2h) or if contradiction rises materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If a clear coffee-specific directional thesis emerges (either tight-supply or supply-improving) with fresh counterevidence appearing within 2h, treat as reversal-risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 47,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 44,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 45,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 1,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Direction held at neutral_mixed because admitted evidence is broad/macro and does not cleanly resolve coffee-futures direction despite freshness and authority presence.",
 "No explicit contradiction records were supplied; 'counterevidence' here is treated as mixed-sign driver framing across admitted trends (cost/logistics vs market-conditions/trade-expansion).",
 "State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown_prior (no trend_state_memory / prior market state provided to 6B)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}