Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-mapping-indirectness (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| coffee |
B-coffee-1 |
Coffee futures are more likely to remain rangebound over the next 24h as macro supply-chain/cost pressures are counterbalanced by mixed agricultural market-condition signals (no clean directional mass). |
56 |
flat |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-2 |
Upside price pressure risk exists (next 6–24h) from cost inflation + logistics disruption framing, but the signal is indirect-to-coffee and therefore fragile. |
52 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
57 |
| coffee |
B-coffee-3 |
Downside price pressure risk exists (next 24h) if 'trade expansion / improved market competition' narratives translate into perceived supply/availability improvement, but linkage to coffee futures is weak in this feed. |
48 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260406T140000Z-coffee-KC",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee futures are more likely to remain rangebound over the next 24h as macro supply-chain/cost pressures are counterbalanced by mixed agricultural market-condition signals (no clean directional mass).",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"input/cost pressure narratives (ag inputs, labour, energy-linked costs)",
"logistics/geopolitical shipping-risk narratives",
"offsetting/mixed 'ag market conditions' signalling"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"any clearly coffee-specific crop/disease/weather shock emerging with tight timestamps",
"any clearly coffee-specific demand shock narrative"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Upside price pressure risk exists (next 6\u201324h) from cost inflation + logistics disruption framing, but the signal is indirect-to-coffee and therefore fragile.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"production cost factor narratives",
"shipping/logistics risk narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"evidence of improving supply/flows or easing logistics constraints",
"coffee-specific production upgrades/harvest positives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-3",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Downside price pressure risk exists (next 24h) if 'trade expansion / improved market competition' narratives translate into perceived supply/availability improvement, but linkage to coffee futures is weak in this feed.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"trade expansion / market competition narratives",
"institutional ag-market-condition summaries"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh, coffee-specific supply disruption signals"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 58,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2",
"B-coffee-3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 12,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 2,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 3,
"stale_24_72h_est": 3,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 0
},
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 10,
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 46,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": [
"Mixed driver sign: cost/logistics pressure vs market-condition/trade-expansion framing",
"No explicit contradiction records supplied, but sentiment mix implies two-sided pressure"
],
"thesis_kill_switch_reason": null
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-mapping-indirectness",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Many admitted signals are macro (inputs/logistics/geopolitics) and only indirectly map to coffee futures; directional inference is fragile."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-narrative-whipsaw",
"market": "coffee",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Mixed positive/negative agricultural condition narratives increase whipsaw risk despite strong freshness."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain neutral stance unless a coffee-specific supply/demand shock appears with multiple independent fresh sources (<=6h)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if logistics/geopolitical disruption signals accelerate (multiple fresh records in <=2h) or if contradiction rises materially."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If a clear coffee-specific directional thesis emerges (either tight-supply or supply-improving) with fresh counterevidence appearing within 2h, treat as reversal-risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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{
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"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.25,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.3,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.33,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.36,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.35,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 12,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Direction held at neutral_mixed because admitted evidence is broad/macro and does not cleanly resolve coffee-futures direction despite freshness and authority presence.",
"No explicit contradiction records were supplied; 'counterevidence' here is treated as mixed-sign driver framing across admitted trends (cost/logistics vs market-conditions/trade-expansion).",
"State_change set to 'unchanged' due to unknown_prior (no trend_state_memory / prior market state provided to 6B)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}