Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures (BRN)
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: BRN
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_tail_risk (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06 23:05 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-001 Brent-linked crude oil pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 6 hours, driven by elevated geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk signals (Middle East / shipping-route sensitivity) plus OPEC+ supply-policy sensitivity. 64 up accelerating 6h false 61
crude_oil B-002 Over the next 24 hours, the crude oil complex is more likely than not to remain supported (risk-premium persistence), but with higher headline sensitivity to any de-escalation / policy signalling. 60 up stable 24h false 61
crude_oil B-003 Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant support is event-risk premium; a credible de-escalation signal could compress risk premium quickly even without a prior build-up of opposing evidence in the current corpus. 40 mixed stable 24h false 61

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260406T230500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures (BRN)",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Brent-linked crude oil pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 6 hours, driven by elevated geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk signals (Middle East / shipping-route sensitivity) plus OPEC+ supply-policy sensitivity.",
 "probability_pct": 64,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage",
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "refining_constraints"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro_demand_softness_risk",
 "rapid_deescalation_headlines"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 86,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the crude oil complex is more likely than not to remain supported (risk-premium persistence), but with higher headline sensitivity to any de-escalation / policy signalling.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro_policy_tightening_or_growth_scare",
 "inventory_build_surprise"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant support is event-risk premium; a credible de-escalation signal could compress risk premium quickly even without a prior build-up of opposing evidence in the current corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 40,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "narrative_whipsaw_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "continued_escalation_or_new_incidents"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 92,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-001",
 "B-002",
 "B-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "basis": "trend_anchor_tiers_plus_corpus_tier_summaries (approximate)",
 "A": 18,
 "B": 2,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 27,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_signals_0_6h": 6,
 "fresh_signals_6_24h": 21,
 "stale_signals_gt24h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Many inputs exhibit spike-and-fade temporal profiles; price response may be headline-driven."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_tail_risk",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Event-driven risk premium dominates; abrupt de-escalation or escalation can change direction rapidly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch_required",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Reversal risk set to medium despite low explicit counterevidence, due to event-risk premium fragility."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/chokepoint disruption signals continue without credible de-escalation confirmation in the next 6h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains elevated (multiple high-authority updates in short windows) and intraday narrative flips appear."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation/policy shift headline arrives (high-authority) and is echoed by 2+ independent sources within 2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "If signals become mixed with rising contradiction ratio and no dominant fresh driver (directional score returns to |<20|)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 50,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 20,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 75,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 46,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 17,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 69,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 13,
 "acceleration_score": 16,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 65,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 65,
 "velocity_score": 9,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 85,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": -12,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 82,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 59,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 59,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 80,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 79,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 81,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 82,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 82,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 81,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 83,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 4,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit contradiction_record_ids supplied; actual_counterevidence_score inferred as low and primarily scenario-based (macro/demand or de-escalation).",
 "State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted as 'unchanged' to avoid forced transition labeling.",
 "VIP outliers and risk anomalies treated as low-weight unless corroborated (many are single-source)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}