Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures (BRN)
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: BRN
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_tail_risk (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-06 23:05 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-001 |
Brent-linked crude oil pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 6 hours, driven by elevated geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk signals (Middle East / shipping-route sensitivity) plus OPEC+ supply-policy sensitivity. |
64 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
61 |
| crude_oil |
B-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, the crude oil complex is more likely than not to remain supported (risk-premium persistence), but with higher headline sensitivity to any de-escalation / policy signalling. |
60 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
61 |
| crude_oil |
B-003 |
Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant support is event-risk premium; a credible de-escalation signal could compress risk premium quickly even without a prior build-up of opposing evidence in the current corpus. |
40 |
mixed |
stable |
24h |
false |
61 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260406T230500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T23:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures (BRN)",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-001",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Brent-linked crude oil pricing pressure is biased upward over the next 6 hours, driven by elevated geopolitical disruption and maritime chokepoint risk signals (Middle East / shipping-route sensitivity) plus OPEC+ supply-policy sensitivity.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"inventory_storage",
"opec_supply_policy",
"refining_constraints"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"macro_demand_softness_risk",
"rapid_deescalation_headlines"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 86,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-002",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the crude oil complex is more likely than not to remain supported (risk-premium persistence), but with higher headline sensitivity to any de-escalation / policy signalling.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"opec_supply_policy",
"macro_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"macro_policy_tightening_or_growth_scare",
"inventory_build_surprise"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-003",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Reversal risk is non-trivial because the dominant support is event-risk premium; a credible de-escalation signal could compress risk premium quickly even without a prior build-up of opposing evidence in the current corpus.",
"probability_pct": 40,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"narrative_whipsaw_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"continued_escalation_or_new_incidents"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 92,
"conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-001",
"B-002",
"B-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"basis": "trend_anchor_tiers_plus_corpus_tier_summaries (approximate)",
"A": 18,
"B": 2,
"C": 1,
"D": 27,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_signals_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_signals_6_24h": 21,
"stale_signals_gt24h": 0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Many inputs exhibit spike-and-fade temporal profiles; price response may be headline-driven."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_tail_risk",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Event-driven risk premium dominates; abrupt de-escalation or escalation can change direction rapidly."
},
{
"flag": "reversal_watch_required",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Reversal risk set to medium despite low explicit counterevidence, due to event-risk premium fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh geopolitical/chokepoint disruption signals continue without credible de-escalation confirmation in the next 6h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "high",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains elevated (multiple high-authority updates in short windows) and intraday narrative flips appear."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If a credible de-escalation/policy shift headline arrives (high-authority) and is echoed by 2+ independent sources within 2h."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"trigger_condition": "If signals become mixed with rising contradiction ratio and no dominant fresh driver (directional score returns to |<20|)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 50,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 20,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 17,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 69,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 13,
"acceleration_score": 16,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 65,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 65,
"velocity_score": 9,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 85,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": -12,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 82,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 59,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 59,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 80,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 79,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 81,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 82,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 82,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 81,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 83,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 65,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 4,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit contradiction_record_ids supplied; actual_counterevidence_score inferred as low and primarily scenario-based (macro/demand or de-escalation).",
"State-change computed with unknown prior state; emitted as 'unchanged' to avoid forced transition labeling.",
"VIP outliers and risk anomalies treated as low-weight unless corroborated (many are single-source)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}