Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk (severity: medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-06T15:05:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude_oil-001 Near-term upside pressure on Brent is driven by elevated geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint disruption risk (Middle East focus), increasing perceived supply-risk premium. 62 up accelerating 6h false 56
crude_oil B-crude_oil-002 OPEC+ policy headlines and related producer signals are being interpreted as supportive of a tighter crude balance, reinforcing bullish bias over the next day. 58 up stable 24h false 56
crude_oil B-crude_oil-003 Despite bullish supply-risk premium, the move is event-driven and susceptible to fast fade if escalation headlines de-intensify; reversal risk remains meaningful even without explicit counterevidence. 44 mixed stable 24h false 56

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-crude_oil-20260406T150500Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-06T15:05:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-001",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term upside pressure on Brent is driven by elevated geopolitical escalation / maritime chokepoint disruption risk (Middle East focus), increasing perceived supply-risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "inventory_storage",
 "refining_constraints"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-002",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "OPEC+ policy headlines and related producer signals are being interpreted as supportive of a tighter crude balance, reinforcing bullish bias over the next day.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "opec_supply_policy",
 "national_oil_companies"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 69,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude_oil-003",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Despite bullish supply-risk premium, the move is event-driven and susceptible to fast fade if escalation headlines de-intensify; reversal risk remains meaningful even without explicit counterevidence.",
 "probability_pct": 44,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "macro_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude_oil-001",
 "B-crude_oil-002",
 "B-crude_oil-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 1,
 "C": 1,
 "D": 26,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_with_newest_update_0_6h": 8,
 "signals_with_newest_update_6_24h": 4,
 "signals_with_newest_update_gt_24h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Dominant drivers are geopolitically event-driven (multiple spike-and-fade temporal profiles), which can unwind quickly even without explicit counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "vip_singleton_echo_risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "Several VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source; treated as low-weight context only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh escalation / chokepoint disruption updates continue to print across multiple independent sources over the next 2\u20136 hours without matching counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence remains high (geopolitical / OPEC+ updates) and temporal profile stays spike-like."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If de-escalation/ceasefire/diplomatic resolution headlines emerge from 2+ independent high-trust sources inside a 2-hour window (late-breaking invalidation condition)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 35,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 19,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 7,
 "net_sentiment_score": 19,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 18,
 "acceleration_score": 15,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 10,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 68,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-06T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-06T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -10,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 4,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Directional interpretation maps supply-disruption / escalation risk to bullish crude price pressure even where source-level sentiment labels are negative (risk framing).",
 "No explicit counterevidence objects/contradictions provided in admitted corpus; reversal risk is therefore driven mainly by event-driven fade potential rather than opposing mass.",
 "state_change set to 'new_bullish' using neutral baseline because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided to compare against."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}