Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: uranium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: source_quality_skew_low_tier
- generated_at: 2026-04-05 22:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| uranium | B-UR-001 | Near-term uranium sentiment is biased higher as the corpus emphasises supportive nuclear policy / innovation narratives and uranium-supply development signals, with minimal opposing evidence in the latest window. | 67 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 40 |
| uranium | B-UR-002 | Uranium supply-side headlines (miners/exploration and producer-linked developments) remain directionally supportive, reducing downside narrative space over the next 24h absent a fresh negative catalyst. | 61 | up | stable | 24h | false | 40 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-05T22:00:00Z_uranium_6B_v1", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Uranium futures", "market_code": "uranium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 40, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "uranium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "uranium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-UR-001", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Near-term uranium sentiment is biased higher as the corpus emphasises supportive nuclear policy / innovation narratives and uranium-supply development signals, with minimal opposing evidence in the latest window.", "probability_pct": 67, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "nuclear_policy", "nuclear_innovation", "energy_security", "uranium_supply_contracting" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-UR-002", "market": "uranium", "claim": "Uranium supply-side headlines (miners/exploration and producer-linked developments) remain directionally supportive, reducing downside narrative space over the next 24h absent a fresh negative catalyst.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_supply_risk", "uranium_supply_contracting" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 52, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "uranium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 40, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-UR-001", "B-UR-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 27, "B": 6, "C": 8, "D": 84, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_24h_share_0_to_1": 0.56, "mid_24_72h_share_0_to_1": 0.26, "stale_72h_plus_share_0_to_1": 0.18 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "source_quality_skew_low_tier", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "details": "Directional mass is broad, but a meaningful share of the admitted corpus is Tier-D / lower-authority sources; treat conviction as slightly more fragile than a Tier-A-dominated cycle." }, { "flag": "policy_to_price_translation_gap", "market": "uranium", "severity": "medium", "details": "A portion of the supportive impulse is policy/innovation narrative; price response can lag or decouple without a clear contracting/spot catalyst." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "uranium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) uranium-specific supply contracting / producer guidance headlines continue without opposing evidence, maintain bullish watch." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch only if 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals appear (e.g., demand downgrade, policy setback, or sudden supply-release catalyst)." }, { "market": "uranium", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "If high-attention regulatory/legal developments cluster (multi-source) around key producers/projects, expect short-horizon volatility even if direction stays bullish." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "uranium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 50, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 30, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, 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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 10, "acceleration_score": 10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 38, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 43, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 36, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 53, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 12, "acceleration_score": 12, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 45, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 41, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 43, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 42, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 9, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 39, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 37, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 38, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 7, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 35, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.05, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 34, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 5, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=uranium.", "No explicit counterevidence objects/contradictions present in admitted corpus; reversal sentinel not triggered.", "Source tier counts are aggregated from admitted trend evidence bundles (may include cross-trend overlap; treated as approximate for diagnostics only).", "No prior state provided; state_change computed versus neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral_mixed)." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }