Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker:
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: reversal_watch (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T10:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-UR-001 |
Policy/supportive nuclear messaging and SMR/innovation coverage remain net-demand supportive, keeping uranium futures sentiment skewed upward over the next 24h despite limited direct price/flow evidence in the admitted corpus. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
43 |
| uranium |
B-UR-002 |
Supply-side development headlines (mining/exploration/company project updates) add mild counter-pressure to a purely bullish uranium thesis, increasing fragility and limiting conviction at the 6h horizon. |
54 |
mixed |
fading |
6h |
false |
43 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260405T101500Z_001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T10:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Policy/supportive nuclear messaging and SMR/innovation coverage remain net-demand supportive, keeping uranium futures sentiment skewed upward over the next 24h despite limited direct price/flow evidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_policy",
"energy_security",
"reactor_demand",
"nuclear_innovation"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-UR-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side development headlines (mining/exploration/company project updates) add mild counter-pressure to a purely bullish uranium thesis, increasing fragility and limiting conviction at the 6h horizon.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-UR-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-UR-001",
"B-UR-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 111,
"B": 18,
"C": 20,
"D": 256,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate trend-level tier totals (may double-count cross-trend overlap)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_with_newest_update_0_6h": 3,
"signals_with_newest_update_6_24h": 4,
"signals_with_newest_update_24_72h": 9,
"signals_with_newest_update_gt_72h": 0,
"reference_timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T10:15:00Z",
"note": "Counts include trends + VIP/risk items admitted to the uranium scope."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "reversal_watch",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Net sentiment is bullish, but much of the corpus is policy/innovation narrative plus repeated supply-development headlines; this raises fragility and makes short-horizon flips more plausible even without explicit contradictory evidence."
},
{
"flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_share",
"market": "uranium",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence is lower-tier, increasing narrative/echo sensitivity."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the next 6\u201312h window adds fresh, independent confirmation aligned with demand/contracting (without fresh opposing supply/price-negative signals), then bullish conviction may tighten."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence appears (e.g., multiple independent records within 2h) that reframes supply/demand balance or introduces clear downside catalysts, then neutralisation/reversal risk rises."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If late-breaking high-authority items cluster in <2h with mixed directionality, increase whipsaw risk monitoring."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 7,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"No explicit per-trend v2 trend_physics fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/fragility inferred from available recency proxies, tier mixes, and narrative structure.",
"No explicit contradictory trends/records were provided; medium reversal risk is driven by thesis fragility (policy-heavy narrative + supply-development counter-pressure), not by fresh opposing evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}