Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: reversal_watch (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T10:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-UR-001 Policy/supportive nuclear messaging and SMR/innovation coverage remain net-demand supportive, keeping uranium futures sentiment skewed upward over the next 24h despite limited direct price/flow evidence in the admitted corpus. 62 up stable 24h false 43
uranium B-UR-002 Supply-side development headlines (mining/exploration/company project updates) add mild counter-pressure to a purely bullish uranium thesis, increasing fragility and limiting conviction at the 6h horizon. 54 mixed fading 6h false 43

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_20260405T101500Z_001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T10:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Policy/supportive nuclear messaging and SMR/innovation coverage remain net-demand supportive, keeping uranium futures sentiment skewed upward over the next 24h despite limited direct price/flow evidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_policy",
 "energy_security",
 "reactor_demand",
 "nuclear_innovation"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-UR-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-side development headlines (mining/exploration/company project updates) add mild counter-pressure to a purely bullish uranium thesis, increasing fragility and limiting conviction at the 6h horizon.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-UR-001"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 42,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 43,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-UR-001",
 "B-UR-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 111,
 "B": 18,
 "C": 20,
 "D": 256,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate trend-level tier totals (may double-count cross-trend overlap)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "signals_with_newest_update_0_6h": 3,
 "signals_with_newest_update_6_24h": 4,
 "signals_with_newest_update_24_72h": 9,
 "signals_with_newest_update_gt_72h": 0,
 "reference_timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T10:15:00Z",
 "note": "Counts include trends + VIP/risk items admitted to the uranium scope."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "reversal_watch",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Net sentiment is bullish, but much of the corpus is policy/innovation narrative plus repeated supply-development headlines; this raises fragility and makes short-horizon flips more plausible even without explicit contradictory evidence."
 },
 {
 "flag": "authority_skew_low_tier_share",
 "market": "uranium",
 "severity": "medium",
 "rationale": "Directional mass is broad, but a large share of evidence is lower-tier, increasing narrative/echo sensitivity."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the next 6\u201312h window adds fresh, independent confirmation aligned with demand/contracting (without fresh opposing supply/price-negative signals), then bullish conviction may tighten."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence appears (e.g., multiple independent records within 2h) that reframes supply/demand balance or introduces clear downside catalysts, then neutralisation/reversal risk rises."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If late-breaking high-authority items cluster in <2h with mixed directionality, increase whipsaw risk monitoring."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 23,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 23,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 47,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 33,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 58,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 33,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 57,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 59,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 36,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 50,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "No explicit per-trend v2 trend_physics fields were provided in the gated payload; momentum/fragility inferred from available recency proxies, tier mixes, and narrative structure.",
 "No explicit contradictory trends/records were provided; medium reversal risk is driven by thesis fragility (policy-heavy narrative + supply-development counter-pressure), not by fresh opposing evidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}