Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker:
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T15:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Unstable
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand | Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to be rangebound/whipsawing than trend cleanly, as macro (rates/USD/real-rates) pressure conflicts with industrial-demand and investment-flow support. | 60 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate | Within the next 6h, silver’s tone is likely to be headline-driven (rates/inflation/geopolitics), increasing short-term reversal/whipsaw risk. | 62 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 62 |
| silver | B-silver-24h-underlying-support | Over the next 24h, structural/flow support (industrial demand + supply-constraint framing) is likely to limit sustained downside follow-through unless macro conditions intensify. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 62 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-05_silver_001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to be rangebound/whipsawing than trend cleanly, as macro (rates/USD/real-rates) pressure conflicts with industrial-demand and investment-flow support.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Monetary-policy / interest-rate expectation narratives accelerating",
"Safe-haven / geopolitical risk framing sustaining interest",
"Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing) support narrative",
"ETF/retail flow narrative present but not dominant enough to override macro"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-24h-underlying-support"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Within the next 6h, silver’s tone is likely to be headline-driven (rates/inflation/geopolitics), increasing short-term reversal/whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh macro-focused evidence density (multiple sources) in the most recent window",
"Cross-currents between tightening narratives and safe-haven narratives"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-24h-underlying-support",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Over the next 24h, structural/flow support (industrial demand + supply-constraint framing) is likely to limit sustained downside follow-through unless macro conditions intensify.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Solar/industrial demand growth narrative",
"Supply-constraint / supply-chain constraint framing",
"ETF/retail participation narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand",
"B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate",
"B-silver-24h-underlying-support"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 143,
"B": 19,
"C": 12,
"D": 231,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate aggregate across admitted trend evidence bundles (may double-count shared records across trends)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3,
"stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 3,
"note": "Signal-count based on per-trend/vip published/newest-timestamp proxies available in the input."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Macro tightening / real-rate / USD narratives conflict with safe-haven and industrial-demand narratives, increasing chop risk."
},
{
"flag": "contradiction_spike",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Opposing driver sets are both fresh; no explicit contradiction IDs provided, but driver-level opposition is elevated."
},
{
"flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
"market": "silver",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Sentinel not triggered (no clear <=2h multi-independent hard invalidator present in admitted set). Monitoring only."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain until directional_score_signed breaks beyond +/-20 with supportive freshness (>=3 fresh signals) and falling contradiction ratio."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh macro headline density remains elevated while bullish and bearish pressure stay balanced (contradiction_ratio >= 0.5)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the most recent 2\u20133 hourly buckets show monotonic drift in directional_score_signed (|velocity_score| rising) and contradiction_ratio falls."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 9,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 9,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 39,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 31,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 2,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 1,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 1,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -2,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": -2,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -3,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": -3,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -4,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": -4,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": -6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 24,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 67,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": -7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver'.",
"No explicit contradiction_record_ids were provided; contradiction estimates reflect driver-level opposition (macro vs demand/flows) rather than direct record-to-record contradictions.",
"Prior state not supplied to 6B in this baton; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with neutral_mixed state."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}