Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Unstable
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to be rangebound/whipsawing than trend cleanly, as macro (rates/USD/real-rates) pressure conflicts with industrial-demand and investment-flow support. 60 mixed stable 24h false 62
silver B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate Within the next 6h, silver’s tone is likely to be headline-driven (rates/inflation/geopolitics), increasing short-term reversal/whipsaw risk. 62 mixed accelerating 6h false 62
silver B-silver-24h-underlying-support Over the next 24h, structural/flow support (industrial demand + supply-constraint framing) is likely to limit sustained downside follow-through unless macro conditions intensify. 55 up fading 24h false 62

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "snap_2026-04-05_silver_001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Unstable",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "unstable",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, silver futures are more likely to be rangebound/whipsawing than trend cleanly, as macro (rates/USD/real-rates) pressure conflicts with industrial-demand and investment-flow support.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Monetary-policy / interest-rate expectation narratives accelerating",
 "Safe-haven / geopolitical risk framing sustaining interest",
 "Industrial-demand (solar manufacturing) support narrative",
 "ETF/retail flow narrative present but not dominant enough to override macro"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-24h-underlying-support"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Within the next 6h, silver’s tone is likely to be headline-driven (rates/inflation/geopolitics), increasing short-term reversal/whipsaw risk.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh macro-focused evidence density (multiple sources) in the most recent window",
 "Cross-currents between tightening narratives and safe-haven narratives"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 54,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-24h-underlying-support",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Over the next 24h, structural/flow support (industrial demand + supply-constraint framing) is likely to limit sustained downside follow-through unless macro conditions intensify.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Solar/industrial demand growth narrative",
 "Supply-constraint / supply-chain constraint framing",
 "ETF/retail participation narrative"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 51,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-24h-rangebound-macro-vs-demand",
 "B-silver-6h-macro-headlines-dominate",
 "B-silver-24h-underlying-support"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 143,
 "B": 19,
 "C": 12,
 "D": 231,
 "U": 0,
 "note": "Approximate aggregate across admitted trend evidence bundles (may double-count shared records across trends)."
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signal_count": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_signal_count": 3,
 "stale_gt_24h_signal_count": 3,
 "note": "Signal-count based on per-trend/vip published/newest-timestamp proxies available in the input."
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Macro tightening / real-rate / USD narratives conflict with safe-haven and industrial-demand narratives, increasing chop risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "contradiction_spike",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Opposing driver sets are both fresh; no explicit contradiction IDs provided, but driver-level opposition is elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag": "late_breaking_invalidation",
 "market": "silver",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Sentinel not triggered (no clear <=2h multi-independent hard invalidator present in admitted set). Monitoring only."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain until directional_score_signed breaks beyond +/-20 with supportive freshness (>=3 fresh signals) and falling contradiction ratio."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro headline density remains elevated while bullish and bearish pressure stay balanced (contradiction_ratio >= 0.5)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If the most recent 2\u20133 hourly buckets show monotonic drift in directional_score_signed (|velocity_score| rising) and contradiction_ratio falls."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.41,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 9,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 9,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.42,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.43,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 39,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 31,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.45,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.46,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 2,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 1,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 1,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.49,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.5,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -2,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": -2,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.52,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -3,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": -3,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.53,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -4,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": -4,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.54,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 25,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -5,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": -6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 41,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 67,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": -7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.56,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 40,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.55,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 10,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -8,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as 'silver'.",
 "No explicit contradiction_record_ids were provided; contradiction estimates reflect driver-level opposition (macro vs demand/flows) rather than direct record-to-record contradictions.",
 "Prior state not supplied to 6B in this baton; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' with neutral_mixed state."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}