Snapshot

  • subject_area: Lithium futures
  • target_market_code: lithium
  • ticker: N/A
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: operational_surge_risk_late_session (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05 23:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
lithium B-LI-24H-01 Demand-side narratives (EV adoption/energy transition and battery supply chain investment) are currently dominating the lithium complex, biasing lithium futures upward over the next 24h barring a fresh negative catalyst. 63 up accelerating 24h false 46
lithium B-LI-6H-01 Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive, but fragility is elevated by late-session operational/policy risk noise and the lack of explicit price/physical-balance counterevidence in the provided feed. 58 up stable 6h false 46

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-lithium-20260405T233000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Lithium futures",
 "market_code": "lithium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "lithium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-24H-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Demand-side narratives (EV adoption/energy transition and battery supply chain investment) are currently dominating the lithium complex, biasing lithium futures upward over the next 24h barring a fresh negative catalyst.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "EV adoption momentum (multiple high-authority sources present in admitted trend bundles)",
 "Battery chemistry / supply-chain investment narratives persisting with fresh publications",
 "Policy/strategic-transition framing reinforcing demand expectations"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No explicit fresh opposing (bearish) evidence present in admitted corpus; only generic risk flags without directional price evidence"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-LI-6H-01",
 "market": "lithium",
 "claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive, but fragility is elevated by late-session operational/policy risk noise and the lack of explicit price/physical-balance counterevidence in the provided feed.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fresh stream of supportive publications clustered in the most recent hours",
 "Broad cross-domain reinforcement (EV adoption + extraction/processing themes)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Operational/policy risk anomaly appearing very late in the window (direction unclear, but raises reversal sensitivity)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-LI-24H-01",
 "B-LI-6H-01"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 20,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 2,
 "D": 22,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 12,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 48,
 "stale_gt_24h_est": 40
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "unknown_prior_state",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' for deterministic output."
 },
 {
 "flag": "operational_surge_risk_late_session",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "A late-breaking operational/policy risk anomaly was present (directional impact unclear) and increases short-horizon reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_explicit_counterevidence_visibility",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Provided admitted corpus contains minimal explicit bearish (opposing) evidence; reversal risk is therefore more sensitive to new incoming negative records."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain if net directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh_evidence_count remains supportive without contradiction spike."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises materially in the most recent 2-6h window or if 2+ independent bearish records appear within 2h."
 },
 {
 "market": "lithium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional operational/policy anomalies cluster in the latest 2-4h window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "lithium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 38,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 38,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:30:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 36,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:30:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 55,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:30:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 39,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:30:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 60,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
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 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 49,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 47,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 47,
 "velocity_score": 2,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 72,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:30:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 2,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 7,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Admitted signals were mapped to lithium via direct lithium/extraction/battery-supply-chain linkage and EV-demand driver arenas.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects were present in the provided 5B payload; contradiction_ratio values are conservative estimates based on internal consistency scores and absence of opposing records.",
 "Late-session operational risk anomaly increased fragility and reversal_risk without triggering kill-switch (directional impact not evidenced as bearish in admitted corpus)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}