Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: N/A
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: operational_surge_risk_late_session (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05 23:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-LI-24H-01 |
Demand-side narratives (EV adoption/energy transition and battery supply chain investment) are currently dominating the lithium complex, biasing lithium futures upward over the next 24h barring a fresh negative catalyst. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| lithium |
B-LI-6H-01 |
Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive, but fragility is elevated by late-session operational/policy risk noise and the lack of explicit price/physical-balance counterevidence in the provided feed. |
58 |
up |
stable |
6h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-lithium-20260405T233000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-24H-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Demand-side narratives (EV adoption/energy transition and battery supply chain investment) are currently dominating the lithium complex, biasing lithium futures upward over the next 24h barring a fresh negative catalyst.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"EV adoption momentum (multiple high-authority sources present in admitted trend bundles)",
"Battery chemistry / supply-chain investment narratives persisting with fresh publications",
"Policy/strategic-transition framing reinforcing demand expectations"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"No explicit fresh opposing (bearish) evidence present in admitted corpus; only generic risk flags without directional price evidence"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-LI-6H-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term (6h) lithium futures sentiment remains net-positive, but fragility is elevated by late-session operational/policy risk noise and the lack of explicit price/physical-balance counterevidence in the provided feed.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Fresh stream of supportive publications clustered in the most recent hours",
"Broad cross-domain reinforcement (EV adoption + extraction/processing themes)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Operational/policy risk anomaly appearing very late in the window (direction unclear, but raises reversal sensitivity)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-LI-24H-01",
"B-LI-6H-01"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 4,
"C": 2,
"D": 22,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 12,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 48,
"stale_gt_24h_est": 40
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "unknown_prior_state",
"severity": "low",
"description": "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory provided; state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' for deterministic output."
},
{
"flag": "operational_surge_risk_late_session",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "A late-breaking operational/policy risk anomaly was present (directional impact unclear) and increases short-horizon reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "low_explicit_counterevidence_visibility",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Provided admitted corpus contains minimal explicit bearish (opposing) evidence; reversal risk is therefore more sensitive to new incoming negative records."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "high",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain if net directional_score_signed stays >= +20 and fresh_evidence_count remains supportive without contradiction spike."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if contradiction_ratio rises materially in the most recent 2-6h window or if 2+ independent bearish records appear within 2h."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if additional operational/policy anomalies cluster in the latest 2-4h window."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:30:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:30:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:30:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 2,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 7,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Admitted signals were mapped to lithium via direct lithium/extraction/battery-supply-chain linkage and EV-demand driver arenas.",
"No explicit contradiction objects were present in the provided 5B payload; contradiction_ratio values are conservative estimates based on internal consistency scores and absence of opposing records.",
"Late-session operational risk anomaly increased fragility and reversal_risk without triggering kill-switch (directional impact not evidenced as bearish in admitted corpus)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}