Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang (severity: high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold has mild upside tail-risk support from trade/traceability and logistics-disruption narratives, but the available evidence is stale and thin (low freshness dominance). 53 up fading 24h false 72
gold B-gold-002 Near-term gold signal is dominated by a lack of fresh directional evidence, implying a higher likelihood of mixed/rangebound behaviour than a clean trend signal. 58 mixed stable 6h false 72

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Gold futures",
 "market_code": "gold"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "gold",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "regime_state": "rangebound",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-001",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Gold has mild upside tail-risk support from trade/traceability and logistics-disruption narratives, but the available evidence is stale and thin (low freshness dominance).",
 "probability_pct": 53,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_risk",
 "physical_gold_demand",
 "etf_investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No corroborating fresh (<=72h) gold-specific signals in the admitted corpus"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-gold-002",
 "market": "gold",
 "claim": "Near-term gold signal is dominated by a lack of fresh directional evidence, implying a higher likelihood of mixed/rangebound behaviour than a clean trend signal.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "real_rates",
 "usd_strength"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 35,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
 "momentum_state": "weakening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 32,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 22,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low",
 "freshness_confidence": "low",
 "catalyst_type": "unclear",
 "stale_suppression_applied": true,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-gold-001",
 "B-gold-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 1,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 1,
 "U": 1
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 0,
 "fresh_6_24h": 0,
 "fresh_24_72h": 0,
 "stale_gt_72h": 3
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "high",
 "detail": "Gold-mapped evidence is >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Only a small number of gold-specific mapped signals were available; authority and domain diversity are limited."
 },
 {
 "flag": "recency_blind_spot",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "No gold-specific signals in the last 24h buckets; conviction capped until fresh confirmation arrives."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "trigger_condition": "Remain in neutral stance while conviction_score_0_100 < 45 or freshness_confidence != 'high'."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if a new (<=6h) gold-specific geopolitical/logistics disruption signal appears from 2+ independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "gold",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Activate if fresh opposing evidence produces directional_score_signed <= -20 or >= +20 within the next 6h window."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [
 "gold"
 ],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
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 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 0,
 "signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 3,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 1,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Gold-mapped admitted signals were primarily VIP outliers mentioning gold/GLD; most other trends mapped to crude_oil (Brent/OPEC) or were unmapped for gold.",
 "All gold-mapped admitted evidence timestamps were older than 72h relative to 2026-04-05; recency weighting strongly downweighted them (stale suppression applied).",
 "No prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory was provided; state_change emitted as 'unchanged' under unknown prior."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}