Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: rangebound
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05 00:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Mixed
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold may experience episodic upside (risk-premium/premium widening) if Middle East-linked logistics/trade friction narratives around physical flows recur, but ... 56 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 A traceability/trade-disruption narrative (single-source) could create short-lived physical-market tightness headlines, but is currently uncorroborated ... 52 mixed fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use) { "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-gold-20260405T000000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 34, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "rangebound", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold may experience episodic upside (risk-premium/premium widening) if Middle East-linked logistics/trade friction narratives around physical flows recur, but the current corpus evidence is thin and not fresh.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk", "physical_gold_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 32, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 30, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "A traceability/trade-disruption narrative (single-source) could create short-lived physical-market tightness headlines, but is currently uncorroborated and therefore should not be treated as durable directional fuel.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "physical_gold_demand", "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 10, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 24, "conviction_score_0_100": 34, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 28, "authority_confirmation_band": "low", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-001", "B-gold-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 1, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 1, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 2 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "data_sparsity", "market": "gold", "severity": "high", "details": "Gold-mapped evidence count is below the minimum threshold and largely stale (>72h). Direction suppressed to neutral/mixed." }, { "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "details": "Most supportive signals are dated 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-09 (outside the last 72h), reducing actionable freshness." }, { "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "market": "gold", "severity": "medium", "details": "Geopolitical/logistics narratives can re-activate quickly; with low fresh confirmation, state is fragile and prone to fast shifts." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Remain neutral while conviction_score_0_100 < 45 OR fresh_0_24h evidence count < min_evidence_threshold." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to volatility watch if 2+ independent gold-mapped signals appear within 6h and directional_score_signed magnitude exceeds 20." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If a fresh (<=2h) opposing gold-mapped signal set emerges and contradiction_ratio rises materially versus prior cycle, treat as potential inflection." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, 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"directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 15, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 0, "cross_domain_merges": 0, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": true, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly as gold.", "Most trend corpus content mapped to non-gold topics (geopolitical/macro) without explicit gold alias hits; those signals were not force-mapped to gold per mapping rules.", "Gold-mapped VIP evidence is sparse and stale (latest gold-mapped items published 2026-03-08 to 2026-03-09), so stale suppression applied and direction held at neutral/mixed.", "No explicit fresh counterevidence set detected; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to fragility/data sparsity rather than contradiction." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }