Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: counterevidence_gap
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T17:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-24h-001 | Copper futures carry an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification / grid-modernisation and broader infrastructure narratives dominate the current signal set, with limited fresh counterevidence present in-corpus. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-copper-6h-001 | Over the next 6h, copper sentiment remains moderately supportive (bullish-leaning) driven by fresh, high-breadth ‘energy transition/grid’ coverage and repeated institutional/major-media citations. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 54 |
| copper | B-copper-risk-001 | Downside/neutralisation risk is non-trivial if trade-policy signals intensify or if the current narrative-driven bid loses fresh reinforcement (i.e., demand optimism fades without confirming micro-structure cues). | 38 | mixed | fading | 24h | false | 54 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-05T17:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 54, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures carry an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification / grid-modernisation and broader infrastructure narratives dominate the current signal set, with limited fresh counterevidence present in-corpus.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Energy transition / electrification demand narrative (renewables, grids, storage)", "Infrastructure investment / urbanisation spend themes", "Mining/supply-chain sensitivity implied via producer and analyst-linked trend clusters", "Policy/trade headlines increasing near-term attention (can amplify directional moves)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Trade policy / tariff headline risk could quickly flip risk-on demand assumptions", "Signal set is narrative-heavy vs inventory/flow-confirmation; vulnerable to sentiment whipsaw" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 6h, copper sentiment remains moderately supportive (bullish-leaning) driven by fresh, high-breadth \u2018energy transition/grid\u2019 coverage and repeated institutional/major-media citations.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "Fresh evidence cadence within the last day (multiple records marked fresh across trend bundles)", "Broad cross-domain repetition (policy + infrastructure + industrial themes)" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Short-fuse policy headline risk (tariffs/export controls) can compress conviction rapidly" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-risk-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Downside/neutralisation risk is non-trivial if trade-policy signals intensify or if the current narrative-driven bid loses fresh reinforcement (i.e., demand optimism fades without confirming micro-structure cues).", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Trade/tariff/export-control uncertainty as a volatility amplifier", "Potential over-reliance on thematic demand narratives vs direct inventory/flow micro-structure confirmation" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Current admitted corpus shows limited explicit fresh opposing evidence" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 41, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-24h-001", "B-copper-6h-001" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 163, "B": 10, "C": 8, "D": 298, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 4, "fresh_6_24h": 20, "stale_24_72h": 12, "stale_over_72h": 14 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-contradiction-gap", "label": "counterevidence_gap", "severity": "medium", "details": "Admitted corpus contains limited explicit fresh opposing evidence; reversal risk can be under-detected if the feed is directionally skewed." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-policy-whipsaw", "label": "policy_headline_whipsaw", "severity": "medium", "details": "Trade-policy/tariff narratives are present and can rapidly change sentiment for growth-sensitive metals." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-narrative-heavy", "label": "narrative_heavy_signal", "severity": "medium", "details": "Drivers are dominated by energy-transition/infrastructure themes rather than direct inventory/flow micro-structure confirmation within this input set." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Maintain watch_long_bias while directional_mass_score_0_100 >= 70 and contradiction_ratio stays low (no fresh opposing cluster emergence).", "label": "watch_long_bias" }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Escalate reversal_watch if fresh trade-policy signals arrive (<=2h) with multi-source corroboration and directional_score_signed drops below +20.", "label": "reversal_watch" }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Enable volatility_watch if policy-related headline cadence increases and intraday directional_score_signed oscillates across the +/-20 boundary.", "label": "volatility_watch" } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 18, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 43, "net_sentiment_score": 18, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 52, "fragility_score_0_100": 62, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 41, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 54, "fragility_score_0_100": 61, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 42, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, 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"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 5, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.07, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 32, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 31, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 30, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": -6, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 53, "bullish_pressure_score": 71, "bearish_pressure_score": 29, "net_sentiment_score": 53, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 28, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -3, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 73, "bearish_pressure_score": 27, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.06, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 12, "cross_domain_merges": 4, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior state not provided to 6B; state_change computed against implicit neutral baseline (unknown_prior).", "No explicit contradiction objects present in the provided 5B payload; reversal risk set to medium primarily from policy-headline sensitivity rather than observed counterevidence.", "Signal is dominated by energy-transition / infrastructure demand narratives; treat as sentiment-state rather than inventory-confirmed tightness." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }