Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker: copper
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: timeseries_sparse_proxy (medium) , Hourly signal_timeseries derived from deduped source_ref_sample timestamps (subset proxy)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05 12:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper | B-copper-001 | Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid-modernisation / energy-transition narratives dominate the current evidence set. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 44 |
| copper | B-copper-002 | Trade-policy and regulatory headlines are active but, in the admitted corpus, they are not yet presenting as fresh bearish counter-evidence for copper futures. | 58 | flat | stable | 6h | false | 44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_20260405T120000Z_copper",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-001",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Near-term copper futures sentiment skews upward as electrification / grid-modernisation / energy-transition narratives dominate the current evidence set.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"power_infrastructure_buildout"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 69,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-copper-002",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy and regulatory headlines are active but, in the admitted corpus, they are not yet presenting as fresh bearish counter-evidence for copper futures.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-copper-001",
"B-copper-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 163,
"B": 11,
"C": 8,
"D": 298,
"U": 0,
"basis": "non_deduped_sum_authority_tier_counts_across_admitted_trends"
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 3,
"fresh_6_24h": 3,
"fresh_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 0,
"basis": "deduped_source_ref_sample_events_within_timeseries_lookback"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "timeseries_sparse_proxy",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Hourly signal_timeseries is derived from deduped source_ref_sample timestamps (subset proxy), not full per-record timestamp distribution."
},
{
"flag": "background_theme_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "A material share of supporting evidence is thematic (multi-week energy-transition / infrastructure narratives); near-term direction remains dependent on continued fresh reinforcement."
},
{
"flag": "policy_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Trade-policy headlines are present; while not bearish in the admitted set, they can flip sentiment quickly if fresh counter-evidence emerges."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh corroboration within next 6\u201324h that demand/infrastructure narratives remain dominant without new opposing (bearish) supply/demand shocks."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Any high-authority trade-policy / China macro release generating mixed-to-opposing signals inside a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent opposing signals (bearish) appear within <=2h, or one market-structural hard invalidator is detected."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
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},
{
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{
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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{
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{
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{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
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"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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},
{
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},
{
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
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"velocity_score": -25,
"acceleration_score": -25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 25,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 25,
"acceleration_score": 25,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.02,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 25,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 25,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State_change set to 'unchanged' due to missing/unknown prior state memory in provided inputs.",
"No explicit contradictory (bearish) trend objects were present in the admitted copper-mapped signal set; reversal risk is therefore driven primarily by fragility/sparsity rather than counter-evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}