Snapshot

  • subject_area: Coffee futures
  • target_market_code: coffee
  • ticker: coffee
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_coffee_specific (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T22:36:07Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
coffee B-coffee-1 Near-term supply-side risk narrative (crop risk / origin uncertainty) is dominant enough to bias coffee futures upside risk over the next 24h, but evidence remains thematic rather than directly price/flow-confirmed. 58 up stable 24h false 58
coffee B-coffee-2 Coffee-specific positive micro/specialty narrative exists but is low-breadth and older; it should be treated as background only and not a primary directional driver for futures in the next 6–24h. 70 mixed fading 6h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-05T22:36:07Z-coffee",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T22:36:07Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Coffee futures",
 "market_code": "coffee"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "coffee",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Near-term supply-side risk narrative (crop risk / origin uncertainty) is dominant enough to bias coffee futures upside risk over the next 24h, but evidence remains thematic rather than directly price/flow-confirmed.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Origin crop-risk / production uncertainty (Brazil-linked agriculture risk coverage)",
 "Broad agriculture market-conditions narratives touching coffee supply chain"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Limited directly coffee-price-specific counter-signals present in admitted set (counterevidence is mostly absent rather than explicitly bearish)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
 "market": "coffee",
 "claim": "Coffee-specific positive micro/specialty narrative exists but is low-breadth and older; it should be treated as background only and not a primary directional driver for futures in the next 6\u201324h.",
 "probability_pct": 70,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Singleton coffee-industry mention(s) without broad corroboration"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 66,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-coffee-1",
 "B-coffee-2"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 15,
 "B": 0,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 55,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_count": 1,
 "fresh_6_24h_count": 1,
 "fresh_24_72h_count": 0,
 "stale_over_72h_count": 1,
 "fresh_share_0_1": 0.67
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Coffee-tagged evidence is present but concentrated in a small number of thematic clusters; broader macro/logistics signals were not confidently coffee-mappable."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_context_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "At least one coffee-specific item is older and single-source; treated as background rather than directional."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted signals skew to narrative (risk/conditions) rather than explicit price-impact confirmations; conviction is capped accordingly."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, independent coffee-origin supply disruption / crop-stress confirmations appear within the next 6h without matched counterevidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence emerges indicating easing origin supply risk or a demand shock, raising contradiction ratio materially."
 },
 {
 "market": "coffee",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If headline cadence around origin supply + shipping/logistics increases while evidence remains mixed/thematic (fragility stays elevated)."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": [
 "coffee"
 ]
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 6,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 6,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 7,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 7,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 43,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 8,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 9,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": -7,
 "acceleration_score": -17,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 16,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 17,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 12,
 "acceleration_score": 11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -14,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:36:07Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:36:07Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 26,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 12,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 2,
 "cross_domain_merges": 1,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.",
 "Coffee-admitted set primarily came from coffee-touching agriculture-condition/crop-risk narratives; many broader macro/logistics trends were left unmapped to avoid forced attribution.",
 "Prior state not provided; state_change treated as baseline->current transition."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}