Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_coffee_specific (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T22:36:07Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-1 | Near-term supply-side risk narrative (crop risk / origin uncertainty) is dominant enough to bias coffee futures upside risk over the next 24h, but evidence remains thematic rather than directly price/flow-confirmed. | 58 | up | stable | 24h | false | 58 |
| coffee | B-coffee-2 | Coffee-specific positive micro/specialty narrative exists but is low-breadth and older; it should be treated as background only and not a primary directional driver for futures in the next 6–24h. | 70 | mixed | fading | 6h | false | 58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-05T22:36:07Z-coffee",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T22:36:07Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-1",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-side risk narrative (crop risk / origin uncertainty) is dominant enough to bias coffee futures upside risk over the next 24h, but evidence remains thematic rather than directly price/flow-confirmed.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Origin crop-risk / production uncertainty (Brazil-linked agriculture risk coverage)",
"Broad agriculture market-conditions narratives touching coffee supply chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Limited directly coffee-price-specific counter-signals present in admitted set (counterevidence is mostly absent rather than explicitly bearish)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-2",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Coffee-specific positive micro/specialty narrative exists but is low-breadth and older; it should be treated as background only and not a primary directional driver for futures in the next 6\u201324h.",
"probability_pct": 70,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Singleton coffee-industry mention(s) without broad corroboration"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 66,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 56,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-1",
"B-coffee-2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 15,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 55,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_count": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_count": 1,
"fresh_24_72h_count": 0,
"stale_over_72h_count": 1,
"fresh_share_0_1": 0.67
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_coffee_specific",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Coffee-tagged evidence is present but concentrated in a small number of thematic clusters; broader macro/logistics signals were not confidently coffee-mappable."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "At least one coffee-specific item is older and single-source; treated as background rather than directional."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_to_price_mapping_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted signals skew to narrative (risk/conditions) rather than explicit price-impact confirmations; conviction is capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh, independent coffee-origin supply disruption / crop-stress confirmations appear within the next 6h without matched counterevidence."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=2h) opposing evidence emerges indicating easing origin supply risk or a demand shock, raising contradiction ratio materially."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If headline cadence around origin supply + shipping/logistics increases while evidence remains mixed/thematic (fragility stays elevated)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": [
"coffee"
]
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 10,
"acceleration_score": 9,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": -7,
"acceleration_score": -17,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 17,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 12,
"acceleration_score": 11,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -14,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:36:07Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:36:07Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 26,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 12,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 2,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly as coffee.",
"Coffee-admitted set primarily came from coffee-touching agriculture-condition/crop-risk narratives; many broader macro/logistics trends were left unmapped to avoid forced attribution.",
"Prior state not provided; state_change treated as baseline->current transition."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}