Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: null
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: cross_domain_proxy_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T14:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim (trimmed) | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-COFFEE-001 | Near-term upward price pressure for coffee futures is supported by elevated shipping/logistics disruption risk and higher operating/input-cost narratives across agricultu… | 62 | up | fading | 24h | false | 56 |
| coffee | B-COFFEE-002 | Downside follow-through risk exists if the logistics/cost shock narrative fades without fresh coffee-specific supply losses, reducing the risk premium. | 38 | down | stable | 24h | false | 56 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_coffee_20260405T140000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Coffee futures", "market_code": "coffee" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 56, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "coffee", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "coffee" ], "regime_state": "loosening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-001", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Near-term upward price pressure for coffee futures is supported by elevated shipping/logistics disruption risk and higher operating/input-cost narratives across agricultural supply chains (risk premium).", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "origin_supply", "labour_costs", "weather_disruptions" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Limited direct, coffee-specific export/stock data in the admitted trend set (mostly cross-commodity logistics/cost narratives)." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-COFFEE-002", "market": "coffee", "claim": "Downside follow-through risk exists if the logistics/cost shock narrative fades without fresh coffee-specific supply losses, reducing the risk premium.", "probability_pct": 38, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "shipping_freight", "macro" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Multiple fresh, broad logistics/cost signals persisted into 2026-04-05 (UTC), indicating the narrative is still active." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "coffee", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 74, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-COFFEE-001", "B-COFFEE-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 30, "B": 4, "C": 0, "D": 55, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": "medium", "fresh_6_24h": "high", "stale_over_72h": "low" } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "cross_domain_proxy_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Many admitted drivers are broad logistics/cost narratives; coffee-specific fundamental confirmation is thinner than cross-commodity confirmation." }, { "flag": "momentum_fade", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Recent buckets show bullish pressure easing after an earlier intra-day peak; reversal risk rises if fresh opposing evidence appears." }, { "flag": "data_sparsity_timeseries", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Hourly series is approximated from trend peak-bucket metadata (not full per-record timestamp allocation). Treat bucket-level counts as conservative proxies." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "If fresh (<=6h) logistics/cost escalation signals persist without offsetting coffee-origin supply relief signals." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing evidence emerges (e.g., coffee-specific supply improvement / easing freight constraints) alongside rising contradiction ratio." }, { "market": "coffee", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If geopolitics/logistics headlines accelerate intra-day, increasing gap-risk and narrative whipsaw probability." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "coffee" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 4, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 59, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 57, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 67, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 33, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 56, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 35, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 7, "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 11, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly to 'coffee' from flight_plan.target_market_code.", "State_change set to 'unchanged' because prior state memory was not provided (unknown_prior).", "Hourly timeseries approximated using available trend temporal metadata; full per-record timestamp allocation was not available in the provided payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }