Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T23:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B1 Geopolitical and maritime-disruption risk premium is dominating near-term Brent pricing, biasing futures upward. 63 up accelerating 6h false 58
crude_oil B2 Refining/outage and downstream constraint signals are supportive of prompt tightness, adding upside pressure to Brent. 57 up stable 24h false 58
crude_oil B3 Macro-demand headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing) can cap rallies and increase pullback risk even if supply-risk headlines persist. 46 down stable 24h false 58

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260405T230000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical and maritime-disruption risk premium is dominating near-term Brent pricing, biasing futures upward.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "maritime chokepoints / shipping security headlines",
 "Gulf security incidents",
 "Iran-linked supply risk narrative",
 "broader regional escalation risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "macro demand / recession-risk narrative"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraint signals are supportive of prompt tightness, adding upside pressure to Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "refinery outage chatter / operational disruption risk",
 "downstream constraints and product tightness spillover"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "potential supply expansion narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro-demand headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing) can cap rallies and increase pullback risk even if supply-risk headlines persist.",
 "probability_pct": 46,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "recession-risk / growth-slowdown framing",
 "tightening-policy sensitivity"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "fresh, high-volume geopolitical risk premium signals"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 75,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B1",
 "B2",
 "B3"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 220,
 "B": 6,
 "C": 5,
 "D": 205,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.72,
 "fresh_6_24h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.28,
 "stale_over_24h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag_id": "RF1",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Geopolitical headline-driven upside can fade quickly; sensitivity to de-escalation headlines remains elevated."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF2",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "macro_demand_counterpressure",
 "severity": "medium",
 "description": "Macro/recession framing exists in the corpus and can counteract supply-risk premium, increasing pullback probability."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF3",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "late_hour_contradiction_uptick",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "Most-recent hour includes a small but non-zero bearish component (e.g., supply-expansion / macro-demand tones), lifting contradiction ratio without triggering invalidation."
 },
 {
 "flag_id": "RF4",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "flag": "single_source_echo_risk_vip_lane_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "description": "VIP lane contains several single-source items; treated as low-weight context rather than thesis drivers."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while fresh geopolitical/maritime disruption signals remain dominant and contradiction stays contained."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalation/de-escalation headlines or shipping-security updates cluster within 1\u20133 hours (expect rapid repricing)."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing (de-escalation / demand shock) evidence appears in the next 2 hours from 2+ independent records, reassess for a reversal-to-neutral."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if new evidence volume collapses and directional score reverts to the neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 "acceleration_score": -48,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": -20,
 "acceleration_score": -24,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 20,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 28,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
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 "acceleration_score": -56,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 80,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 32,
 "acceleration_score": 32,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -8,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 8,
 "net_sentiment_score": -8,
 "velocity_score": -40,
 "acceleration_score": -72,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 33,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": -20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 0,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": -20,
 "velocity_score": -12,
 "acceleration_score": 28,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 40,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "bearish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 40,
 "acceleration_score": 52,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 36,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": -8,
 "acceleration_score": -48,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 34,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 72,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 96,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 132,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 96,
 "velocity_score": 84,
 "acceleration_score": 92,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2143,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 9,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 78,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 96,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 84,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 11,
 "trends_admitted": 11,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change left as 'unchanged' with unknown prior baseline.",
 "Timeseries buckets derived from trend/VIP/risk-item timestamps (not full per-record tick timestamps).",
 "No explicit contradictory-record links were supplied in the admitted set; counterpressure inferred from macro-demand themed items rather than contradiction objects."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}