Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw_risk
- generated_at: 2026-04-05T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B1 |
Geopolitical and maritime-disruption risk premium is dominating near-term Brent pricing, biasing futures upward. |
63 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B2 |
Refining/outage and downstream constraint signals are supportive of prompt tightness, adding upside pressure to Brent. |
57 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
| crude_oil |
B3 |
Macro-demand headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing) can cap rallies and increase pullback risk even if supply-risk headlines persist. |
46 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
58 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260405T230000Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Geopolitical and maritime-disruption risk premium is dominating near-term Brent pricing, biasing futures upward.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"maritime chokepoints / shipping security headlines",
"Gulf security incidents",
"Iran-linked supply risk narrative",
"broader regional escalation risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"macro demand / recession-risk narrative"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraint signals are supportive of prompt tightness, adding upside pressure to Brent.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"refinery outage chatter / operational disruption risk",
"downstream constraints and product tightness spillover"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"potential supply expansion narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro-demand headwinds (growth/recession-risk framing) can cap rallies and increase pullback risk even if supply-risk headlines persist.",
"probability_pct": 46,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"recession-risk / growth-slowdown framing",
"tightening-policy sensitivity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"fresh, high-volume geopolitical risk premium signals"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 75,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2",
"B3"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 220,
"B": 6,
"C": 5,
"D": 205,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.72,
"fresh_6_24h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.28,
"stale_over_24h_estimated_share_0_to_1": 0.0
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag_id": "RF1",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Geopolitical headline-driven upside can fade quickly; sensitivity to de-escalation headlines remains elevated."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF2",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "macro_demand_counterpressure",
"severity": "medium",
"description": "Macro/recession framing exists in the corpus and can counteract supply-risk premium, increasing pullback probability."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF3",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "late_hour_contradiction_uptick",
"severity": "low",
"description": "Most-recent hour includes a small but non-zero bearish component (e.g., supply-expansion / macro-demand tones), lifting contradiction ratio without triggering invalidation."
},
{
"flag_id": "RF4",
"market": "crude_oil",
"flag": "single_source_echo_risk_vip_lane_present",
"severity": "low",
"description": "VIP lane contains several single-source items; treated as low-weight context rather than thesis drivers."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain long-bias watch while fresh geopolitical/maritime disruption signals remain dominant and contradiction stays contained."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Escalation/de-escalation headlines or shipping-security updates cluster within 1\u20133 hours (expect rapid repricing)."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing (de-escalation / demand shock) evidence appears in the next 2 hours from 2+ independent records, reassess for a reversal-to-neutral."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if new evidence volume collapses and directional score reverts to the neutral band (|score| < 20) for multiple hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 32,
"acceleration_score": 32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 16,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": -16,
"acceleration_score": -48,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -20,
"acceleration_score": -24,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 20,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 28,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": -28,
"acceleration_score": -56,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 25,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 32,
"acceleration_score": 32,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": -8,
"velocity_score": -40,
"acceleration_score": -72,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 33,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": -20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": -20,
"velocity_score": -12,
"acceleration_score": 28,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 68,
"dominant_state": "bearish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 40,
"acceleration_score": 52,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 70,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": -8,
"acceleration_score": -48,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 96,
"bullish_pressure_score": 132,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 96,
"velocity_score": 84,
"acceleration_score": 92,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2143,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 78,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 96,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -20,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 84,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 11,
"trends_admitted": 11,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change left as 'unchanged' with unknown prior baseline.",
"Timeseries buckets derived from trend/VIP/risk-item timestamps (not full per-record tick timestamps).",
"No explicit contradictory-record links were supplied in the admitted set; counterpressure inferred from macro-demand themed items rather than contradiction objects."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}