Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker:
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: event_driven_premium (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-05T15:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim (trimmed) prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-crude-geo-risk-premium-6h Geopolitical escalation + maritime chokepoint/security incident narrative is adding near-term risk premium to Brent. 63 up accelerating 6h false 48
crude_oil B-crude-supply-risk-24h Supply-side risk (OPEC+ policy sensitivity + disruption/insurance/logistics risks) supports a bullish bias over the next 24 hours. 66 up stable 24h false 48
crude_oil B-crude-macro-cap-24h Macro/central-bank uncertainty can cap upside and increase two-way volatility even with geopolitical support. 55 mixed stable 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260405T150000Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-geo-risk-premium-6h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Geopolitical escalation + maritime chokepoint/security incident narrative is adding near-term risk premium to Brent.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Iran conflict / escalation framing",
 "Maritime chokepoint disruption risk (Gulf / shipping routes)",
 "Security incident clustering across multiple Middle East-linked records"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "No direct fresh demand-destruction / recession evidence in admitted set (counterevidence sparse rather than opposing)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-supply-risk-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Supply-side risk (OPEC+ policy sensitivity + disruption/insurance/logistics risks) supports a bullish bias over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 66,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "OPEC+ positioning and policy focus",
 "Shipping/insurance/logistics risk spillover into crude flows",
 "Broad multi-source repetition across Tier-A outlets"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Event-driven premium can fade quickly if escalation narratives cool (timing risk)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-crude-macro-cap-24h",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/central-bank uncertainty can cap upside and increase two-way volatility even with geopolitical support.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Fed / inflation / economic-indicator attention embedded in the admitted corpus"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Geopolitical risk premium dominance in the freshest window (last ~6h) reduces near-term bearish follow-through."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 84,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-crude-geo-risk-premium-6h",
 "B-crude-supply-risk-24h",
 "B-crude-macro-cap-24h"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 245,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 9,
 "D": 230,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "0_6h": 9,
 "6_24h": 3,
 "24_72h": 0,
 "gt_72h": 0
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "event_driven_premium",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Directional support is heavily tied to geopolitics/shipping-risk headlines; can mean-revert quickly on de-escalation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "medium",
 "details": "Mixture of policy/macro and conflict framing increases two-way volatility risk."
 },
 {
 "flag": "low_quality_tail_noise_present",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "severity": "low",
 "details": "Some admitted VIP/risk-anomaly items are single-source and low-authority; treated as peripheral, not thesis-driving."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "high",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Fresh (<=6h) multi-source geopolitical/chokepoint escalation signals persist without comparable fresh opposing evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Headline cadence accelerates (shipping/security incidents + policy/macro headlines) while directional score remains > |20|."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Two or more independent fresh (<=2h) de-escalation / supply-relief / demand-hit signals appear and directional score compresses toward neutral."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 0,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T01:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 0,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
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 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 25,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 70,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 5,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 24,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 5,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 30,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 68,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
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 "acceleration_score": 8,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -11,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 42,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 44,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 35,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 35,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 37,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 62,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 56,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
 "velocity_score": 5,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 48,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 10,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-05T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": -7,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Target scope resolved explicitly to crude_oil from flight_plan.target_market_code.",
 "Contradictions list was empty; counterevidence treated as low (absence of opposing signals, not proof of one-way market).",
 "State-change set to 'unchanged' due to missing explicit prior-state memory in provided inputs."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}