Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: silver
  • regime_state: loosening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_transmission_ambiguity (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-04T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-001 Near-term sentiment bias is modestly supportive for silver as industrial-demand narratives (solar/renewables) remain broadly reinforced by multi-source coverage. 57 up stable 24h false 53
silver B-silver-002 Safe-haven framing and macro uncertainty remain a supportive backdrop, but the transmission to silver price over the next 6–24h is fragile and can flip quickly with rates/USD interpretation. 54 mixed accelerating 6h false 53
silver B-silver-003 Single-source negative takes (e.g., on flows/sentiment) exist but do not yet constitute broad counter-evidence against the overall supportive silver backdrop. 63 flat fading 24h false 53

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-04T12:00:00Z-silver",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "loosening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-001",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term sentiment bias is modestly supportive for silver as industrial-demand narratives (solar/renewables) remain broadly reinforced by multi-source coverage.",
 "probability_pct": 57,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "industrial_demand",
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Supply-side/exploration headlines can be interpreted as future supply overhang (non-price-specific signals)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-002",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Safe-haven framing and macro uncertainty remain a supportive backdrop, but the transmission to silver price over the next 6\u201324h is fragile and can flip quickly with rates/USD interpretation.",
 "probability_pct": 54,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "monetary_policy",
 "usd_strength",
 "real_rates"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Some macro narratives are non-directional (rates/FX impact ambiguous without explicit policy surprise signals)."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-003",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Single-source negative takes (e.g., on flows/sentiment) exist but do not yet constitute broad counter-evidence against the overall supportive silver backdrop.",
 "probability_pct": 63,
 "direction": "flat",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "investment_flows"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "If additional independent negatives appear in the next 2\u20136h, reversal risk rises materially."
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "low"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "stable",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-001",
 "B-silver-002",
 "B-silver-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 55,
 "B": 10,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 140,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h": 2,
 "fresh_6_24h": 14,
 "stale_24_72h": 28,
 "stale_over_72h": 6
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "macro_transmission_ambiguity",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Rates/USD narratives are high-volume but not consistently price-directional for silver without explicit surprises."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "single_source_counter_signal_present",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "At least one isolated negative VIP-style signal exists; not yet corroborated by independent sources."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "flag": "narrative_time_span_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several supportive themes span multiple weeks; persistence is strong but some items show 'dormant' temporal shape despite recent mentions."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent confirmation arrives within the next 6h while contradiction stays low, bullish conviction can lift."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals emerge (especially rates/USD-driven), treat as potential short-horizon reversal setup."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (mixed macro interpretations) while evidence remains fresh, expect whipsaw risk."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 46,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 10,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 10,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 10,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 11,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 11,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 11,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 12,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 13,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 13,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 13,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 14,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 15,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 15,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 15,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 18,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 20,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 53,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 22,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 30,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 29,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 28,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 27,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 27,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 27,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 26,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
 "Per-signal physics (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) not present in input; recency and mass/authority estimates derived from evidence_bundle recency proxies, tier mixes, and temporal profiles."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}