Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: silver
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_transmission_ambiguity (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-04T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-001 | Near-term sentiment bias is modestly supportive for silver as industrial-demand narratives (solar/renewables) remain broadly reinforced by multi-source coverage. | 57 | up | stable | 24h | false | 53 |
| silver | B-silver-002 | Safe-haven framing and macro uncertainty remain a supportive backdrop, but the transmission to silver price over the next 6–24h is fragile and can flip quickly with rates/USD interpretation. | 54 | mixed | accelerating | 6h | false | 53 |
| silver | B-silver-003 | Single-source negative takes (e.g., on flows/sentiment) exist but do not yet constitute broad counter-evidence against the overall supportive silver backdrop. | 63 | flat | fading | 24h | false | 53 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-04T12:00:00Z-silver",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-001",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term sentiment bias is modestly supportive for silver as industrial-demand narratives (solar/renewables) remain broadly reinforced by multi-source coverage.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"industrial_demand",
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Supply-side/exploration headlines can be interpreted as future supply overhang (non-price-specific signals)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-002",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Safe-haven framing and macro uncertainty remain a supportive backdrop, but the transmission to silver price over the next 6\u201324h is fragile and can flip quickly with rates/USD interpretation.",
"probability_pct": 54,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"monetary_policy",
"usd_strength",
"real_rates"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Some macro narratives are non-directional (rates/FX impact ambiguous without explicit policy surprise signals)."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-003",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Single-source negative takes (e.g., on flows/sentiment) exist but do not yet constitute broad counter-evidence against the overall supportive silver backdrop.",
"probability_pct": 63,
"direction": "flat",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"investment_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If additional independent negatives appear in the next 2\u20136h, reversal risk rises materially."
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 70,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "background_persistent",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-001",
"B-silver-002",
"B-silver-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 55,
"B": 10,
"C": 6,
"D": 140,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 2,
"fresh_6_24h": 14,
"stale_24_72h": 28,
"stale_over_72h": 6
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "macro_transmission_ambiguity",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Rates/USD narratives are high-volume but not consistently price-directional for silver without explicit surprises."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "single_source_counter_signal_present",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "At least one isolated negative VIP-style signal exists; not yet corroborated by independent sources."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"flag": "narrative_time_span_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several supportive themes span multiple weeks; persistence is strong but some items show 'dormant' temporal shape despite recent mentions."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent confirmation arrives within the next 6h while contradiction stays low, bullish conviction can lift."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing signals emerge (especially rates/USD-driven), treat as potential short-horizon reversal setup."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (mixed macro interpretations) while evidence remains fresh, expect whipsaw risk."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 10,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 11,
"bullish_pressure_score": 11,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 11,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 12,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 13,
"bullish_pressure_score": 13,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 13,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
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"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 14,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 15,
"bullish_pressure_score": 15,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 15,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 22,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 29,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 27,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 32,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback.",
"Per-signal physics (trend_physics / trend_state_memory) not present in input; recency and mass/authority estimates derived from evidence_bundle recency proxies, tier mixes, and temporal profiles."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}