Snapshot
- subject_area: Natural gas futures (LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium)
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: natural_gas
- regime_state: unstable
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: event_driven_risk_premium
- generated_at: 2026-04-04 23:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| natural_gas | NG_B1 | Near-term natural gas futures remain biased to the upside as LNG-linked geopolitical/infrastructure disruption narratives are dominant and recently re-accelerated. | 60 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 72 |
| natural_gas | NG_B2 | Risk-premium is event-driven and fragile; without corroboration of specific outage/disruption details, the upside bias can fade quickly, leaving a mixed/range outcome over 24h. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 72 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_natural_gas_2026-04-04T23:30:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T23:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures (LNG/geopolitical supply-risk premium)",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "unstable",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "NG_B1",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term natural gas futures remain biased to the upside as LNG-linked geopolitical/infrastructure disruption narratives are dominant and recently re-accelerated.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"pipeline_infrastructure",
"lng_export_flows",
"production_outages"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Lack of explicit countervailing fundamentals (weather/storage/production) in admitted signal set"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "NG_B2",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Risk-premium is event-driven and fragile; without corroboration of specific outage/disruption details, the upside bias can fade quickly, leaving a mixed/range outcome over 24h.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_geopolitics",
"lng_export_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"If additional independent confirmations of outages/escalation arrive, fragility declines and upside bias strengthens"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 74,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 72,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"NG_B1",
"NG_B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 20,
"B": 1,
"C": 1,
"D": 26,
"U": 0,
"note": "Approximate (trend-level authority mix is overlapping across record bundles; counts are not fully deduplicated)."
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_items": 1,
"fresh_6_24h_items": 9,
"stale_24_72h_items": 3,
"stale_gt_72h_items": 0,
"note": "Based on latest timestamps exposed in trend/risk objects; per-record full timestamps were not provided to 6B."
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "event_driven_risk_premium",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Directional bias is dominated by geopolitics/LNG disruption narratives rather than direct weather/storage fundamentals."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "data_sparsity_in_core_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Limited admitted signal coverage for seasonal weather demand and storage levels raises model fragility for NG futures direction."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"flag": "unconfirmed_fresh_catalyst",
"severity": "high",
"note": "A very fresh 'scheduled outage' risk item is present but with seed-level/low corroboration metadata, increasing fragility."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Two or more independent confirmations of LNG facility/pipeline disruption details within the next 6\u201324h, or material escalation in the same theatre with broad Tier-A pickup."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Rapid headline churn (escalation/de-escalation) causing intraday narrative swings; especially around shipping/LNG facility operational status updates."
},
{
"action": "reversal_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Fresh, credible de-escalation/normalisation signals that directly negate disruption claims (e.g., outage cancelled / flows restored) arriving within a 2\u20136h window."
},
{
"action": "hard_de_risk_watch",
"market": "natural_gas",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If the fresh outage catalyst remains uncorroborated for >12\u201324h while no new independent disruption evidence arrives (fragility remains elevated)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 18,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
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"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 19,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 37,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 20,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 7,
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"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"stale_evidence_count": 1,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": -5,
"acceleration_score": -10,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
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"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 26,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 41,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
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"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
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"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 28,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 8,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 43,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-05T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 23,
"acceleration_score": 23,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 75,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 45,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 23,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Primary admitted signal mass is geopolitics/LNG infrastructure risk; limited direct weather/storage coverage reduces conviction and raises fragility.",
"State_change set to 'new_bullish' using neutral baseline due to missing prior market_state_table / trend_state_memory."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}