Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: lithium
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-001: policy_trade_tail_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-04T23:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-lithium-001 | Net newsflow mass is supportive of lithium pricing expectations via EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion themes dominating the last 24h window. | 58 | up | stable | 6h | false | 46 |
| lithium | B-lithium-002 | Supply-side narratives (mining/refining capacity, direct lithium extraction progress) are currently framed as constructive and are not presenting as a near-term negative shock in the corpus. | 61 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 46 |
| lithium | B-lithium-003 | Lithium-related geopolitical/resource framing (scarcity/strategic resource) is present and broadly supportive, but is mostly slow-burn (not a clean short-horizon price impulse). | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-2026-04-04T23:10:00Z-lithium-001", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T23:10:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium futures", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-lithium-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Net newsflow mass is supportive of lithium pricing expectations via EV adoption + battery supply-chain expansion themes dominating the last 24h window.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "ev_demand", "battery_supply_chain", "ev_policy_subsidies" ], "contradicted_by": [ "No explicit fresh opposing (bearish) lithium-price evidence detected in admitted corpus; risk items are impact flags rather than directional counterevidence." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Supply-side narratives (mining/refining capacity, direct lithium extraction progress) are currently framed as constructive and are not presenting as a near-term negative shock in the corpus.", "probability_pct": 61, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "lithium_mining_supply", "refining_capacity", "battery_supply_chain" ], "contradicted_by": [ "Potential for policy/trade friction and customs/regulatory surprises remains a tail-risk (seed-level risk anomaly present)." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-lithium-003", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Lithium-related geopolitical/resource framing (scarcity/strategic resource) is present and broadly supportive, but is mostly slow-burn (not a clean short-horizon price impulse).", "probability_pct": 55, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "china_policy", "ev_policy_subsidies", "lithium_mining_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "If fresh hard policy restriction / export-control evidence appears, directional bias may flip quickly (high-impact scenario; not currently evidenced as active)." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-lithium-001", "B-lithium-002", "B-lithium-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 32, "B": 7, "C": 3, "D": 46, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 8, "fresh_6_24h_est": 22, "stale_gt_24h_est": 12, "notes": "Mix is estimated from trend/vip evidence_recency_proxy windows and samples; overlaps across trend bundles likely." } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag_id": "RF-001", "market": "lithium", "type": "policy_trade_tail_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Seed-level operational surge risk mentions a China customs/regulatory entity (fresh timestamp) but without materialised evidence records; treat as high-impact/low-visibility tail-risk rather than confirmed directional counterevidence." }, { "flag_id": "RF-002", "market": "lithium", "type": "cross_domain_driver_dependency", "severity": "low", "details": "A meaningful share of bullish mass is indirectly inferred from EV adoption / energy transition narratives, not direct lithium futures market microstructure signals." }, { "flag_id": "RF-003", "market": "lithium", "type": "narrative_whipsaw_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Multiple singleton VIP items exist (single-source, echo-risk flagged). They should not move conviction alone but can amplify swings if corroborated." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Sustained fresh confirmation (>=2 independent sources) of lithium-demand tightness / contract pricing strength within the next 6\u201324h bucket cycle without a rise in contradiction ratio." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Any hard policy/trade/cross-border logistics headline with direct lithium flow implications appears (e.g., customs/export controls), especially if timestamped <=2h and echoed by 2+ sources." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Emergence of fresh opposing evidence (bearish lithium pricing drivers) that materially raises contradiction ratio in the last-6h window." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 44, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 38, "bullish_pressure_score": 48, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 38, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 48, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 48, "velocity_score": 6, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 55, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 10, "net_sentiment_score": 55, "velocity_score": 7, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 49, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 11, "net_sentiment_score": 49, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 46, "bullish_pressure_score": 58, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 46, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 44, "bullish_pressure_score": 56, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 44, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 42, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 42, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 41, "bullish_pressure_score": 53, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 41, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 43, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 43, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 45, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 45, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 61, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 50, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 50, "velocity_score": 3, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 47, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 54, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 54, "velocity_score": 4, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 56, "bullish_pressure_score": 68, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 56, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": -2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 58, "bullish_pressure_score": 70, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 58, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 60, "bullish_pressure_score": 72, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 60, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.01, "fresh_evidence_count": 6, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 57, "bullish_pressure_score": 69, "bearish_pressure_score": 12, "net_sentiment_score": 57, "velocity_score": -3, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 46, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 60, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "down", "latest_inflection_strength": 3, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target scope resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradictions supplied in 5B output; contradiction_ratio held near-zero.", "State-change prior not provided; treated as neutral->bullish for state_change='new_bullish'.", "Source tier counts and freshness mix are approximate aggregates from admitted trend/vip bundles; record overlap across trends is likely." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }