Snapshot

  • subject_area: Gold futures (GC)
  • target_market_code: gold
  • ticker: gold
  • regime_state: unstable
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: stale_context_overhang
  • generated_at: 2026-04-04T00:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Reversal-Risk
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
gold B-gold-001 Gold has mild supportive pressure from persistent geopolitical-risk narratives (risk-off/safe-haven bid), but the support is not fresh in the current 24h window. 56 up fading 24h false 78
gold B-gold-002 Gold faces counter-pressure from macro/real-rate and policy narratives (rates/monetary-policy related), limiting directional conviction. 52 down stable 24h false 78
gold B-gold-003 Physical/trade-flow disruption/traceability headlines could create localized bullion tightness/premiums, but evidence is thin and single-source. 33 mixed fading 6h false 78

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_gold_2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Gold futures (GC)", "market_code": "gold" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 41, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "gold", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "gold" ], "regime_state": "unstable", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-gold-001", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold has mild supportive pressure from persistent geopolitical-risk narratives (risk-off/safe-haven bid), but the support is not fresh in the current 24h window.", "probability_pct": 56, "direction": "up", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "geopolitical_risk" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-gold-002", "B-gold-003" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 46, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 48, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-002", "market": "gold", "claim": "Gold faces counter-pressure from macro/real-rate and policy narratives (rates/monetary-policy related), limiting directional conviction.", "probability_pct": 52, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "real_rates", "usd_strength" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-gold-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 45, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-gold-003", "market": "gold", "claim": "Physical/trade-flow disruption/traceability headlines could create localized bullion tightness/premiums, but evidence is thin and single-source.", "probability_pct": 33, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "fading", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "physical_gold_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B-gold-002" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 26, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 12, "authority_confirmation_band": "low" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "gold", "directional_state": "neutral_mixed", "momentum_state": "weakening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 48, "conviction_score_0_100": 41, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "low", "catalyst_type": "background_persistent", "stale_suppression_applied": true, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 78, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-gold-001", "B-gold-002", "B-gold-003" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 6, "B": 1, "C": 0, "D": 8, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h": 0, "fresh_6_24h": 0, "fresh_24_72h": 0, "stale_gt_72h": 14 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "market": "gold", "flag": "stale_context_overhang", "severity": "high", "detail": "Most admitted drivers are older than 72h relative to the snapshot timestamp; directional read is suppressed." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "data_sparsity_24h", "severity": "high", "detail": "Insufficient fresh evidence in the last 24h window to meet strong directional-conviction requirements." }, { "market": "gold", "flag": "macro_vs_safehaven_crosspressure", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Geopolitical-risk support competes with policy/real-rate narrative headwinds, increasing mixed-state probability." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "gold", "confidence": "high", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Until >=3 fresh, market-mapped signals arrive inside the last 24h (or a single hard market-structural catalyst appears)." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical-risk headlines re-accelerate with multi-source confirmation inside 0\u20136h buckets." }, { "market": "gold", "confidence": "medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "If fresh macro/policy signals strengthen and dominate (rising counterevidence share) after a prior safe-haven-biased window." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [ "gold" ], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [ "gold" ] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, 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"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, 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"stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": 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"fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 0, "bullish_pressure_score": 0, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 0, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.0, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 20, "fragility_score_0_100": 80, "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 0, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "flat", "latest_inflection_strength": 0, "signal_regime": "mixed_flat" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 10, "cross_domain_merges": 1, "stale_suppression_count": 1, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Gold directional state suppressed due to staleness: primary evidence timestamps cluster in early March 2026, while snapshot is 2026-04-04.", "No material fresh (0\u201324h) gold-mapped evidence detected in provided admitted set; timeseries is conservative neutral placeholders.", "Prior-state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change set to 'unchanged' to avoid false transition calls." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }