Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker: null
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity (high)
- generated_at: 2026-04-04 00:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B-GOLD-001 |
Gold futures directional bias is currently neutral/mixed because the available gold-linked evidence is predominantly stale (>72h) and not corroborated in the last 24 hours. |
58 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B-GOLD-002 |
Residual geopolitical-risk narrative remains a background bullish tailwind for gold, but it is not strong enough (by itself) to support a fresh directional call without recent confirmation. |
52 |
up |
fading |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis-6b-gold-2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Fragile",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-001",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures directional bias is currently neutral/mixed because the available gold-linked evidence is predominantly stale (>72h) and not corroborated in the last 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"data_sparsity_last_24h",
"stale_geopolitical_risk_backdrop_not_refreshed",
"isolated_gold_market_microstructure_notes_only"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 15,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-GOLD-002",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Residual geopolitical-risk narrative remains a background bullish tailwind for gold, but it is not strong enough (by itself) to support a fresh directional call without recent confirmation.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_risk_background",
"safe_haven_bias_in_themes"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-GOLD-001"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 28,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 20,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "invalidated_stale",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 26,
"conviction_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 18,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-GOLD-001",
"B-GOLD-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 0,
"fresh_6_24h": 0,
"mid_24_72h": 0,
"stale_gt_72h": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "No material gold-linked evidence observed within the last 24h in the admitted corpus; directional call suppressed."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "high",
"details": "Most gold-relevant items are >72h old; stale suppression applied and momentum marked weakening."
},
{
"flag": "echo_concentration_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Gold-linked signals skew toward single-source VIP items (low corroboration)."
},
{
"flag": "recency_flip_risk",
"market": "gold",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Because current state is derived from sparse fresh inputs, any new high-quality update could shift state quickly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Remain until fresh (<=24h) multi-source evidence appears for at least one primary driver arena (real_rates, usd_strength, central_bank_flows, geopolitical_risk, etf_investment_flows, physical_gold_demand)."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate watch if fresh geopolitical-risk or rates/USD signals emerge with accelerating velocity in the last 6h."
},
{
"market": "gold",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Activate if two or more independent fresh (<=2h) opposing gold-linked signals arrive (late-breaking invalidation sentinel)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
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"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 10,
"fragility_score_0_100": 85,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 0,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Gold-mapped inputs were primarily VIP outliers and were stale (published around 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09), i.e., >72h before snapshot time 2026-04-04T00:00:00Z.",
"Most high-volume trends in the batch referenced geopolitical events but did not explicitly map to the canonical gold market alias set; they were treated as unmapped rather than force-mapped.",
"Overlay permissions indicate no authoritative news pull; freshness confidence downgraded accordingly."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}