Snapshot

  • subject_area: Copper futures
  • target_market_code: copper
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: thematic_proxy_risk
  • generated_at: 2026-04-04 19:00 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
copper B-copper-24h-001 Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification/grid-modernisation demand themes and producer/supply-chain focus remain dominant in the admitted signal set. 63 up accelerating 24h false 44
copper B-copper-6h-002 Over the next 6h, the dominant bias remains bullish, but headline-driven volatility risk is elevated (trade policy / macro policy chatter can cause fast intraday swings without clear counter-evidence trend yet). 58 up stable 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B_copper_2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Copper futures", "market_code": "copper" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 76, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "copper", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "copper" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-copper-24h-001", "market": "copper", "claim": "Copper futures have an upward bias over the next 24h as electrification/grid-modernisation demand themes and producer/supply-chain focus remain dominant in the admitted signal set.", "probability_pct": 63, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "energy_transition_demand", "inventory_exchange_stocks", "mine_supply_disruption", "industrial_demand" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 78, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-copper-6h-002", "market": "copper", "claim": "Over the next 6h, the dominant bias remains bullish, but headline-driven volatility risk is elevated (trade policy / macro policy chatter can cause fast intraday swings without clear counter-evidence trend yet).", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "trade_policy", "china_policy" ], "contradicted_by": [], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "copper", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "new_bullish", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 76, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-copper-24h-001", "B-copper-6h-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 62, "B": 6, "C": 2, "D": 118, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_est": 2, "fresh_6_24h_est": 5, "fresh_24_72h_est": 6, "older_context_est": 0 } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-001", "market": "copper", "flag": "thematic_proxy_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "A meaningful portion of admitted support is macro/thematic (electrification, grid modernisation, energy transition) rather than a single, direct copper-specific shock; conviction is therefore more fragile to macro headline flips." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-002", "market": "copper", "flag": "policy_headline_shock_risk", "severity": "medium", "details": "Trade-policy and China-policy drivers appear in the admitted corpus; these can create fast intraday reversals even without a built counter-evidence base." }, { "risk_flag_id": "RF-copper-003", "market": "copper", "flag": "low_counterevidence_observed", "severity": "low", "details": "No meaningful fresh opposing (bearish) evidence was admitted in this run; reversal risk is therefore assessed as low but may be under-sampled if the feed is asymmetric." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "copper", "confidence": "high", "action_label": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh demand/infrastructure/electrification signals persist and no fresh, independent bearish counter-signals emerge." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "medium", "action_label": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Elevate volatility watch if trade-policy or China-policy headlines accelerate (clustered within <=2h) even without immediate cross-source corroboration." }, { "market": "copper", "confidence": "low", "action_label": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch only if multiple independent bearish records arrive within <=2h and contradiction ratio rises materially versus the current low baseline." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "copper" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 34, "bullish_pressure_score": 34, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 34, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -10, "acceleration_score": -10, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 37, "bullish_pressure_score": 37, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 37, "velocity_score": 15, "acceleration_score": 15, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 26, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": -11, "acceleration_score": -26, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 45, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 9, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 23, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 43, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 47, "bullish_pressure_score": 47, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 47, "velocity_score": 23, "acceleration_score": 21, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 68, "fragility_score_0_100": 44, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 40, "bullish_pressure_score": 40, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 40, "velocity_score": -7, "acceleration_score": -30, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 28, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": -12, "acceleration_score": -5, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 46, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 24, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": -4, "acceleration_score": 8, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 44, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 22, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": -2, "acceleration_score": 2, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 42, "fragility_score_0_100": 60, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 52, "bullish_pressure_score": 52, "bearish_pressure_score": 0, "net_sentiment_score": 52, "velocity_score": 30, "acceleration_score": 32, "contradiction_ratio": 0.02, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 45, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 52, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 30, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 6, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper.", "Prior state not provided; state_change computed assuming neutral/unknown prior baseline -> new_bullish.", "Trend admission constrained to signals with copper-linked entities/keywords (e.g., LME, Codelco, Freeport-McMoRan, Hindustan Copper, refined/scrap copper); several macro-only trends were treated as unmapped/background and not admitted.", "No explicit fresh bearish counter-evidence objects were present in provided trends/vip/risk sets; reversal logic therefore did not trigger kill-switch." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }