Snapshot
- subject_area: Copper futures
- target_market_code: copper
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: trade_policy_headline_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-04T12:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| copper |
copper_belief_01_demand_tailwinds_24h |
Energy-transition and infrastructure/electrification narratives remain a net supportive demand backdrop for copper, keeping upward bias intact over the next 24h. |
64% |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
copper_belief_02_supply_tightness_24h |
Copper supply-side tightness / producer-side constraints remain a supportive factor, reducing the probability of sustained downside over the next 24h. |
60% |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
42 |
| copper |
copper_belief_03_trade_policy_volatility_6h |
Trade-policy headlines remain a near-term volatility amplifier for copper, increasing the chance of choppy or two-sided price action over the next 6h even if the broader bias is supportive. |
48% |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B_CIS_copper_2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Copper futures",
"market_code": "copper"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "copper",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"copper"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "copper_belief_01_demand_tailwinds_24h",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Energy-transition and infrastructure/electrification narratives remain a net supportive demand backdrop for copper, keeping upward bias intact over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 64,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_transition_demand",
"industrial_demand",
"infrastructure_investment"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "copper_belief_02_supply_tightness_24h",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Copper supply-side tightness / producer-side constraints remain a supportive factor, reducing the probability of sustained downside over the next 24h.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"mine_supply_disruption",
"supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"copper_belief_03_trade_policy_volatility_6h"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "copper_belief_03_trade_policy_volatility_6h",
"market": "copper",
"claim": "Trade-policy headlines remain a near-term volatility amplifier for copper, increasing the chance of choppy or two-sided price action over the next 6h even if the broader bias is supportive.",
"probability_pct": 48,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"trade_policy",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "copper",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 79,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"copper_belief_01_demand_tailwinds_24h",
"copper_belief_02_supply_tightness_24h",
"copper_belief_03_trade_policy_volatility_6h"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 131,
"B": 11,
"C": 6,
"D": 246,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"signals_0_6h": 1,
"signals_6_24h": 4,
"signals_24_72h": 4,
"signals_gt_72h": 1
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "trade_policy_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Trade-policy themed trend mass is present and fresh; treated as volatility-amplifying rather than hard counter-directional evidence."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"details": "A minority of admitted copper-linked narratives have newest updates >72h; not dominant enough to suppress direction."
},
{
"market": "copper",
"flag": "tier_count_overlap_risk",
"severity": "low",
"details": "Aggregated tier counts are derived from per-trend evidence bundles and may double-count overlapping sources/records."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional fresh multi-source confirmations appear (0\u20136h window) without a rise in genuine counter-evidence."
},
{
"action": "volatility_watch",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If trade-policy headlines accelerate (more fresh records within 2\u20136h), expect higher intraday whipsaw risk."
},
{
"action": "stay_flat",
"market": "copper",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if late-breaking opposing evidence appears (<=2h) from 2+ independent records (kill-switch criteria)."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"copper"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 30,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 8,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 10,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 46,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 1,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=copper; scope_mode forced to single_market.",
"Two trends (renewable-energy deployment without copper-linked entities; USMCA infrastructure/trade without copper-linked entities) were treated as unmapped to copper and excluded from admitted directional synthesis.",
"No explicit contradictory/counter-directional records were provided in the admitted corpus; reversal-risk remains low and kill-switch is not triggered.",
"State-change set to 'unchanged' because no prior market_state_table or trend_state_memory direction history was provided (unknown_prior)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}