Snapshot
- subject_area: Coffee futures
- target_market_code: coffee
- ticker: coffee
- regime_state: loosening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: mapping_indirectness
- generated_at: 2026-04-04T23:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| coffee | B-coffee-001 | Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption risk is creating upward (supportive) price pressure for coffee futures. | 62 | up | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-002 | Downstream retail / specialty coffee expansion and brand activity is modestly supportive of demand expectations, adding mild upward bias to coffee futures. | 55 | up | fading | 24h | false | 55 |
| coffee | B-coffee-003 | Some trade-expansion / flow-normalisation signals could partially offset disruption-driven upside, capping coffee futures strength. | 41 | down | stable | 24h | false | 55 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-2026-04-04-coffee-KC-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Coffee futures",
"market_code": "coffee"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "coffee",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"regime_state": "loosening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Near-term supply-chain/logistics disruption risk is creating upward (supportive) price pressure for coffee futures.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Geopolitical/shipping disruption narratives affecting global commodity logistics and freight",
"Trade-flow friction and port/logistics constraints as a near-term risk theme"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Downstream retail / specialty coffee expansion and brand activity is modestly supportive of demand expectations, adding mild upward bias to coffee futures.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Retail expansion / specialty coffee shop growth signals",
"Large-buyer ecosystem activity (e.g., major coffee chains) shaping consumption narrative"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-003"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 52,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"claim": "Some trade-expansion / flow-normalisation signals could partially offset disruption-driven upside, capping coffee futures strength.",
"probability_pct": 41,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Trade expansion / export-flow improvement narratives",
"Counterbalancing macro/flow narratives vs disruption premium"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "stable",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 63,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-coffee-001",
"B-coffee-002",
"B-coffee-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 61,
"B": 9,
"C": 3,
"D": 111,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_evidence_dominance": "medium",
"stale_context_overhang": "low",
"notes": "Evidence appears recent at trend level, but per-record timestamp distribution was not available in this baton; mapping to coffee is partly indirect."
},
"directional_score_0_to_100_signed": 28,
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 25,
"reversal_triggered": false,
"reversal_evidence_summary": "No explicit fresh opposing coffee-specific thesis detected; risk comes from mixed/indirect drivers (logistics risk premium vs flow-normalisation themes)."
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-001",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "mapping_indirectness",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "A meaningful share of admitted signals are global logistics/geopolitics themes rather than coffee-origin crop/weather/supply specifics."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-002",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "Disruption-premium narratives can reverse quickly if flow-normalisation / de-escalation updates arrive."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-coffee-003",
"market": "coffee",
"label": "data_sparsity_origin_fundamentals",
"severity": "medium",
"details": "No strong coffee-origin weather/crop-condition cluster is present in the admitted set; conviction capped accordingly."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh logistics disruption confirmations persist (next 6\u201324h) without matching flow-normalisation counter-signal, directional conviction can firm."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "medium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh updates indicate rapid shipping normalisation / de-escalation, reduce bullish bias (risk of downside snapback)."
},
{
"market": "coffee",
"confidence": "low",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "If contradiction ratio rises (mixed headlines) while fresh evidence count stays high, expect unstable/range behaviour."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"coffee"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 5,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 48,
"net_sentiment_score": 5,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 34,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 6,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 6,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 35,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 7,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 47,
"net_sentiment_score": 7,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 36,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 8,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 46,
"net_sentiment_score": 8,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 38,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 10,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 45,
"net_sentiment_score": 10,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 40,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 44,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 43,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 42,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 46,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 41,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 40,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 30,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "balanced",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 8,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market explicitly set to coffee; analysis constrained to coffee only.",
"No explicit contradiction objects present; counterevidence inferred only from mixed driver directionality (disruption premium vs trade normalisation).",
"Per-record timestamp distribution not provided in this baton; timeseries values are conservative/shape-only, not a precise evidence histogram.",
"Prior market state not provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}