Snapshot

  • subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
  • target_market_code: crude_oil
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: macro_counterpressure_present
  • generated_at: 2026-04-04T23:15:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
crude_oil B-CO-01 Near-term crude (Brent) pricing bias remains upward due to elevated Middle East geopolitical / maritime disruption risk (chokepoints, security incidents), sustaining a risk premium. 65 up accelerating 6h false 57
crude_oil B-CO-02 Macro/interest-rate and growth-risk signals increase downside demand risk and can cap or reverse the geopolitically-driven upside over the next 24 hours. 52 down stable 24h false 57
crude_oil B-CO-03 Refining/outage and downstream constraint narratives are directionally mixed for crude balances; net impact is higher intraday volatility rather than a clean directional push. 56 mixed fading 24h false 57

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "CIS-20260404T231500Z-crude_oil",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T23:15:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Brent crude oil futures",
 "market_code": "crude_oil"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "crude_oil",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-01",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Near-term crude (Brent) pricing bias remains upward due to elevated Middle East geopolitical / maritime disruption risk (chokepoints, security incidents), sustaining a risk premium.",
 "probability_pct": 65,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "geopolitical_disruption",
 "maritime_chokepoint_risk",
 "energy_security_policy_signalling"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-02",
 "B-CO-03"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-02",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Macro/interest-rate and growth-risk signals increase downside demand risk and can cap or reverse the geopolitically-driven upside over the next 24 hours.",
 "probability_pct": 52,
 "direction": "down",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "macro_demand",
 "rates_tightening_risk",
 "risk_off_positioning"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "B-CO-01"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-CO-03",
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraint narratives are directionally mixed for crude balances; net impact is higher intraday volatility rather than a clean directional push.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "refining_constraints",
 "inventory_storage_second_order_effects"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "high",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-CO-01",
 "B-CO-02",
 "B-CO-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 275,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 6,
 "D": 215,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 4,
 "fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 8,
 "fresh_24_72h_signals_est": 0,
 "stale_gt72h_signals_est": 0
 },
 "actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 34
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "macro_counterpressure_present",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Fresh macro/rates-related signals introduce meaningful counterweight to the supply-risk narrative, increasing reversal sensitivity."
 },
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Geopolitical/maritime narratives are high-velocity and can flip rapidly on de-escalation or incident non-confirmation."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_concentration_in_event_cluster",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "A large share of directional mass clusters around a single thematic complex (Middle East security/chokepoints)."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source confirmation of disruption/escalation inside major routes/chokepoints within the next 6 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "High-frequency headline flow continues (security incidents / official statements) causing fast sentiment swings."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "Macro/rates narrative strengthens materially (new high-authority prints) while geopolitical escalation signals fade."
 },
 {
 "market": "crude_oil",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Evidence coherence drops (contradiction rises) and fresh directional confirmations stall across multiple hours."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "crude_oil"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 61,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 39,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 49,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 37,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 25,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 63,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 38,
 "net_sentiment_score": 25,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 52,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 7,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 68,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 84,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 68,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 76,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 70,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 85,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 70,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 77,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 66,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 83,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 66,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": -3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 62,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 62,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 64,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 64,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 63,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 82,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 63,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 61,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 81,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 61,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 60,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 60,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 59,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 80,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 59,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 0,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:15:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:15:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 79,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 21,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": -1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 0,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "down",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 6,
 "signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 12,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change conservatively set to 'unchanged'.",
 "Directional mass dominated by geopolitics/maritime-security risk premium signals; macro/rates signals treated as fresh counterpressure rather than missing-authority.",
 "No explicit contradiction objects supplied in input; contradiction handled as driver-level mixedness (supply-risk vs macro-demand)."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}