Snapshot
- subject_area: Brent crude oil futures
- target_market_code: crude_oil
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: macro_counterpressure_present
- generated_at: 2026-04-04T23:15:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-01 |
Near-term crude (Brent) pricing bias remains upward due to elevated Middle East geopolitical / maritime disruption risk (chokepoints, security incidents), sustaining a risk premium. |
65 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
57 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-02 |
Macro/interest-rate and growth-risk signals increase downside demand risk and can cap or reverse the geopolitically-driven upside over the next 24 hours. |
52 |
down |
stable |
24h |
false |
57 |
| crude_oil |
B-CO-03 |
Refining/outage and downstream constraint narratives are directionally mixed for crude balances; net impact is higher intraday volatility rather than a clean directional push. |
56 |
mixed |
fading |
24h |
false |
57 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "CIS-20260404T231500Z-crude_oil",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-04T23:15:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Brent crude oil futures",
"market_code": "crude_oil"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "crude_oil",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-01",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Near-term crude (Brent) pricing bias remains upward due to elevated Middle East geopolitical / maritime disruption risk (chokepoints, security incidents), sustaining a risk premium.",
"probability_pct": 65,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"geopolitical_disruption",
"maritime_chokepoint_risk",
"energy_security_policy_signalling"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-02",
"B-CO-03"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 80,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 78,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-02",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Macro/interest-rate and growth-risk signals increase downside demand risk and can cap or reverse the geopolitically-driven upside over the next 24 hours.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "down",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"macro_demand",
"rates_tightening_risk",
"risk_off_positioning"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-CO-01"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-CO-03",
"market": "crude_oil",
"claim": "Refining/outage and downstream constraint narratives are directionally mixed for crude balances; net impact is higher intraday volatility rather than a clean directional push.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"refining_constraints",
"inventory_storage_second_order_effects"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 48,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 82,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_band": "high",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-CO-01",
"B-CO-02",
"B-CO-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 275,
"B": 9,
"C": 6,
"D": 215,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_signals_est": 4,
"fresh_6_24h_signals_est": 8,
"fresh_24_72h_signals_est": 0,
"stale_gt72h_signals_est": 0
},
"actual_counterevidence_score_0_100": 34
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "macro_counterpressure_present",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Fresh macro/rates-related signals introduce meaningful counterweight to the supply-risk narrative, increasing reversal sensitivity."
},
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Geopolitical/maritime narratives are high-velocity and can flip rapidly on de-escalation or incident non-confirmation."
},
{
"flag": "data_concentration_in_event_cluster",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "A large share of directional mass clusters around a single thematic complex (Middle East security/chokepoints)."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Additional multi-source confirmation of disruption/escalation inside major routes/chokepoints within the next 6 hours."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "High-frequency headline flow continues (security incidents / official statements) causing fast sentiment swings."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Macro/rates narrative strengthens materially (new high-authority prints) while geopolitical escalation signals fade."
},
{
"market": "crude_oil",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Evidence coherence drops (contradiction rises) and fresh directional confirmations stall across multiple hours."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"crude_oil"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T23:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T00:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 39,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T00:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T01:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T01:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T02:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 37,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.12,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T02:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T03:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 25,
"bullish_pressure_score": 63,
"bearish_pressure_score": 38,
"net_sentiment_score": 25,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T03:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T04:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.13,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T04:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T05:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T05:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T06:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.14,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T06:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T07:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.15,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T07:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T08:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.16,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T08:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T09:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.18,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T09:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T10:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 7,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T10:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T11:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 68,
"bullish_pressure_score": 84,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 68,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.19,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 76,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T11:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T12:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 70,
"bullish_pressure_score": 85,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 70,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.2,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 77,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T12:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T13:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 83,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T13:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T14:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": -3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T14:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T15:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T15:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T16:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T16:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T17:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T17:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T18:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.21,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T18:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T19:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 63,
"bullish_pressure_score": 82,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 63,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T19:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T20:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 61,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 61,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T20:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T21:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.22,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T21:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T22:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 59,
"bullish_pressure_score": 80,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 59,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-04T22:15:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-04T23:15:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 21,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.23,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 70,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 6,
"signal_regime": "weakening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 12,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state unavailable (unknown_prior); state_change conservatively set to 'unchanged'.",
"Directional mass dominated by geopolitics/maritime-security risk premium signals; macro/rates signals treated as fresh counterpressure rather than missing-authority.",
"No explicit contradiction objects supplied in input; contradiction handled as driver-level mixedness (supply-risk vs macro-demand)."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}