Snapshot

  • subject_area: Uranium futures
  • target_market_code: uranium
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: RF-URN-LOWAUTH-001 (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03 00:30 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
uranium B-URN-001 Near-term sentiment remains supported by policy/energy-security signalling keeping reactor build/extension expectations firm, sustaining demand-side pressure. 62 up stable 24h false 44
uranium B-URN-002 Supply-side/contracting framing modestly reinforces tighter forward-balance perception, adding incremental upside bias. 56 up fading 24h false 44
uranium B-URN-003 Very short-horizon bullish pressure is positive but not explosive; absent a fresh negative catalyst, downside impulse appears limited. 58 up accelerating 6h false 44

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-03T003000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T00:30:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Uranium futures",
 "market_code": "uranium"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "uranium",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Near-term sentiment for uranium remains supported by continued policy/energy-security signalling that keeps reactor build/extension expectations firm, sustaining demand-side narrative pressure.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "energy_security",
 "nuclear_policy",
 "reactor_demand"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-002",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "Supply-side/contracting framing (producer/mining development narratives) modestly reinforces a tighter forward-balance perception, adding incremental upside bias to uranium sentiment.",
 "probability_pct": 56,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "fading",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "uranium_supply_contracting",
 "geopolitical_supply_risk"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-URN-003",
 "market": "uranium",
 "claim": "In the very short horizon, bullish pressure is positive but not explosive; absent a fresh negative catalyst in the last few hours, downside narrative impulse appears limited.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "nuclear_innovation",
 "energy_security"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "new_bullish",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "medium",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-URN-001",
 "B-URN-002",
 "B-URN-003"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 38,
 "B": 5,
 "C": 10,
 "D": 86,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 22,
 "stale_over_72h_est": 10,
 "notes": [
 "Freshness inferred from newest-publish timestamps present across admitted uranium-linked trends; exact per-record physics not available in this input."
 ]
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-LOWAUTH-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "echo_concentration_or_low_authority_share",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "A large share of admitted evidence volume is from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-INDIRECT-DRIVER-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "narrative_to_price_linkage_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "note": "Much of the strongest corpus mass is policy/innovation/energy-security framing (indirect). Spot/futures price response can lag or decouple."
 },
 {
 "risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-WHIPSAW-001",
 "market": "uranium",
 "type": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "low",
 "note": "High headline churn across nuclear-policy themes can cause fast sentiment swings even without explicit counterevidence."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive policy/energy-security evidence continues to dominate and no material opposing evidence appears within a 6h window."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if 2+ independent bearish/negative uranium-specific signals arrive within 2h or if contradiction ratio rises materially in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "uranium",
 "confidence": "low",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "trigger_condition": "Expect higher volatility if market-structural policy headlines (sanctions/export controls/reactor approval shocks) cluster tightly in time."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "uranium"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
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 },
 {
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 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
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 },
 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 {
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 62,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 53,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 53,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 41,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 58,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 58,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 3,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 4,
 "cross_domain_merges": 2,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 0,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Single-market scope enforced: uranium.",
 "Admission was constrained to uranium-explicit or uranium-supply-chain-linked trends (e.g., uranium producers/mining/uranium entities). Nuclear-policy/SMR-only trends were treated as indirect context and not fully admitted to avoid force-mapping beyond alias confidence.",
 "No explicit counterevidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to indirect driver linkage and potential headline whipsaw rather than observed opposing evidence."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}