Snapshot
- subject_area: Uranium futures
- target_market_code: uranium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: RF-URN-LOWAUTH-001 (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03 00:30 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| uranium |
B-URN-001 |
Near-term sentiment remains supported by policy/energy-security signalling keeping reactor build/extension expectations firm, sustaining demand-side pressure. |
62 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
44 |
| uranium |
B-URN-002 |
Supply-side/contracting framing modestly reinforces tighter forward-balance perception, adding incremental upside bias. |
56 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
44 |
| uranium |
B-URN-003 |
Very short-horizon bullish pressure is positive but not explosive; absent a fresh negative catalyst, downside impulse appears limited. |
58 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
44 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "cis_uranium_2026-04-03T003000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T00:30:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Uranium futures",
"market_code": "uranium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "uranium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-001",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Near-term sentiment for uranium remains supported by continued policy/energy-security signalling that keeps reactor build/extension expectations firm, sustaining demand-side narrative pressure.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"energy_security",
"nuclear_policy",
"reactor_demand"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 62,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-002",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "Supply-side/contracting framing (producer/mining development narratives) modestly reinforces a tighter forward-balance perception, adding incremental upside bias to uranium sentiment.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"uranium_supply_contracting",
"geopolitical_supply_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-URN-003",
"market": "uranium",
"claim": "In the very short horizon, bullish pressure is positive but not explosive; absent a fresh negative catalyst in the last few hours, downside narrative impulse appears limited.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"nuclear_innovation",
"energy_security"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 64,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 72,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 61,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "medium",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-URN-001",
"B-URN-002",
"B-URN-003"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 38,
"B": 5,
"C": 10,
"D": 86,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 6,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 22,
"stale_over_72h_est": 10,
"notes": [
"Freshness inferred from newest-publish timestamps present across admitted uranium-linked trends; exact per-record physics not available in this input."
]
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-LOWAUTH-001",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "echo_concentration_or_low_authority_share",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "A large share of admitted evidence volume is from lower-tier sources; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-INDIRECT-DRIVER-001",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "narrative_to_price_linkage_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"note": "Much of the strongest corpus mass is policy/innovation/energy-security framing (indirect). Spot/futures price response can lag or decouple."
},
{
"risk_flag_id": "RF-URN-WHIPSAW-001",
"market": "uranium",
"type": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "low",
"note": "High headline churn across nuclear-policy themes can cause fast sentiment swings even without explicit counterevidence."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish bias while fresh supportive policy/energy-security evidence continues to dominate and no material opposing evidence appears within a 6h window."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "medium",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal watch if 2+ independent bearish/negative uranium-specific signals arrive within 2h or if contradiction ratio rises materially in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "uranium",
"confidence": "low",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"trigger_condition": "Expect higher volatility if market-structural policy headlines (sanctions/export controls/reactor approval shocks) cluster tightly in time."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"uranium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
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"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 39,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 39,
"velocity_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 56,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 58,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 47,
"bullish_pressure_score": 59,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 47,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 49,
"bullish_pressure_score": 61,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 49,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 62,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 53,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 53,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 58,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 58,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 58,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 3,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 4,
"cross_domain_merges": 2,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Single-market scope enforced: uranium.",
"Admission was constrained to uranium-explicit or uranium-supply-chain-linked trends (e.g., uranium producers/mining/uranium entities). Nuclear-policy/SMR-only trends were treated as indirect context and not fully admitted to avoid force-mapping beyond alias confidence.",
"No explicit counterevidence objects were present in the admitted corpus; reversal risk set to medium primarily due to indirect driver linkage and potential headline whipsaw rather than observed opposing evidence."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}