Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: single_source_counter_signal_present
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T12:00:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B1 Industrial demand narrative (notably solar/PV manufacturing growth) is providing a supportive demand backdrop for silver over the next 24h. 62 up accelerating 24h false 48
silver B2 Investment/safe-haven tone (COMEX/precious-metals risk-off framing + silver ETF-related flow narratives) is mildly supportive for silver in the next 6h. 58 up stable 6h false 48
silver B3 Mine supply / development chatter (silver miners and exploration updates) marginally increases supply-side overhang risk, slightly tempering near-term upside. 45 down stable 24h false 48

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "6B-silver-20260403T120000Z", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Silver futures", "market_code": "silver" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 48, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "silver", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "silver" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B1", "market": "silver", "claim": "Industrial demand narrative (notably solar/PV manufacturing growth) is providing a supportive demand backdrop for silver over the next 24h.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "industrial_demand", "supply_chain / manufacturing expansion themes" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B3" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 63, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B2", "market": "silver", "claim": "Investment/safe-haven tone (COMEX/precious-metals risk-off framing + silver ETF-related flow narratives) is mildly supportive for silver in the next 6h.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "up", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "6h", "drivers": [ "investment_flows", "risk_off / safe_haven_bid", "macro_rates_inflation_attention" ], "contradicted_by": [ "VIP-001" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 68, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B3", "market": "silver", "claim": "Mine supply / development chatter (silver miners and exploration updates) marginally increases supply-side overhang risk, slightly tempering near-term upside.", "probability_pct": 45, "direction": "down", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "mine_supply" ], "contradicted_by": [ "B1", "B2" ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 44, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "silver", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "low", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 79, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B1", "B2", "B3" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 7, "B": 0, "C": 0, "D": 0, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_signals_0_6h": 4, "fresh_signals_6_24h": 4, "stale_signals_gt72h": 1, "notes": [ "Freshness mix is computed at admitted-signal level (trend/vip/risk objects), not at per-record granularity." ] } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "single_source_counter_signal_present", "severity": "low", "market": "silver", "details": "One fresh-but-single-source negative VIP outlier exists; treated as weak counterevidence unless corroborated." }, { "flag": "timeseries_bucketization_low_granularity", "severity": "medium", "market": "silver", "details": "Per-record timestamp distribution was not provided in the gated payload; timeseries is a conservative smoothed proxy." }, { "flag": "macro_headline_whipsaw_potential", "severity": "medium", "market": "silver", "details": "Macro rates/inflation/geopolitical narratives can flip quickly; watch for fresh opposing macro prints/headlines." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "silver", "action": "watch_long_bias", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Directional score remains bullish (>= +20 signed) with no rise in fresh opposing evidence inside the next 6h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "volatility_watch", "confidence": "medium", "trigger_condition": "Any sharp increase in contradiction ratio or sudden emergence of 2+ independent opposing signals in <= 2h." }, { "market": "silver", "action": "reversal_watch", "confidence": "low", "trigger_condition": "Directional score drops below +10 signed AND fresh counterevidence score rises materially (e.g., multiple opposing signals within 6h)." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "silver" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 40, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.14, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 55, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 21, "bullish_pressure_score": 60, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 21, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 56, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 22, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 22, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.13, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 57, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 23, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 39, "net_sentiment_score": 23, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 58, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 24, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 24, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 59, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 25, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 38, "net_sentiment_score": 25, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.12, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 60, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 26, "bullish_pressure_score": 63, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 26, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 62, "fragility_score_0_100": 51, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 27, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 37, "net_sentiment_score": 27, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 64, "fragility_score_0_100": 50, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 64, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 66, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 36, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.11, "fresh_evidence_count": 3, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 49, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 30, "bullish_pressure_score": 65, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 30, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 69, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 35, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 4, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 32, "bullish_pressure_score": 66, "bearish_pressure_score": 34, "net_sentiment_score": 32, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.1, "fresh_evidence_count": 5, "stale_evidence_count": 0, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 48, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 32, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 12, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 7, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 0, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Prior market state not provided; state_change set conservatively to 'unchanged'.", "Timeseries buckets are smoothed proxies due to missing per-record timestamp distribution in the gated payload." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" } }