Snapshot
- subject_area: Silver futures
- target_market_code: silver
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T06:10:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| silver | B-silver-01 | Near-term silver bias is upward as macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand remain supportive, with incremental support from investment flows. | 62 | up | accelerating | 6h | false | 42 |
| silver | B-silver-02 | Industrial-demand tailwinds (notably solar manufacturing theme) remain a supportive background driver for silver over the next 24 hours. | 60 | up | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
| silver | B-silver-03 | Despite a bullish bias, silver is vulnerable to sharp short-term pullbacks if rate-expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens; episodic whipsaw risk. | 55 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 42 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-20260403-061000Z-silver-001",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T06:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Silver futures",
"market_code": "silver"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "silver",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"silver"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-01",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Near-term silver bias is upward as macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand remain supportive, with incremental support from investment flows.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"COMEX / safe-haven demand narrative persistence",
"ETF-related attention/flows (SLV/PSLV proxies in corpus)",
"Geopolitical-risk backdrop referenced across multiple A-tier sources"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Isolated negative VIP outliers (single-source, low corroboration)",
"Fast-moving rate/FX narrative risk (can flip direction quickly)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-02",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Industrial-demand tailwinds (notably solar manufacturing theme) remain a supportive background driver for silver over the next 24 hours, reinforcing bullish bias when macro is not adverse.",
"probability_pct": 60,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Solar manufacturing growth theme (industrial demand narrative)",
"Broad multi-source reinforcement over the 30d window"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Macro/rates-driven USD strength episodes (can overwhelm industrial narrative short-term)"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-silver-03",
"market": "silver",
"claim": "Despite a bullish bias, silver is vulnerable to sharp short-term pullbacks if rate-expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens; expect episodic whipsaw risk.",
"probability_pct": 55,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Rate-expectations intensity (US/ECB macro streams)",
"Crowded narrative sensitivity (precious metals risk-on/risk-off switching)"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"Sustained fresh reinforcement of safe-haven/ETF narratives"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "silver",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-silver-01",
"B-silver-02",
"B-silver-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 70,
"B": 9,
"C": 8,
"D": 115,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_window_hours": 24,
"fresh_evidence_estimate": 55,
"stale_evidence_estimate": 145,
"fresh_share_estimate_0_to_1": 0.28,
"latest_update_utc": "2026-04-03T06:04:52Z"
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
"severity": "medium",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Macro/rate-expectations streams are dominant and can flip silver bias quickly even when industrial/safe-haven narratives are supportive."
},
{
"flag": "data_sparsity",
"severity": "low",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Some negative signals are single-source VIP outliers; treated as low-weight counterevidence but increase fragility modestly."
},
{
"flag": "stale_overhang",
"severity": "low",
"market": "silver",
"detail": "Several supportive themes are sustained/slow-burn over >7d; freshness remains high due to recent updates, so no stale suppression applied."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with fresh confirmation and low contradiction (no kill-switch)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing macro evidence accelerates (rates/USD) and contradiction ratio rises materially within 2–6 hours."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If rate-expectations headlines cluster and ETF/positioning narratives turn mixed (increasing whipsaw risk)."
},
{
"market": "silver",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if broad evidence degrades below threshold or late-breaking invalidation triggers."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"silver"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 64,
"bearish_pressure_score": 36,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 31,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 31,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 35,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 57,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 66,
"bearish_pressure_score": 34,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 33,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 33,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 60,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 36,
"bullish_pressure_score": 68,
"bearish_pressure_score": 32,
"net_sentiment_score": 36,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 67,
"bearish_pressure_score": 33,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 5,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 42,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 38,
"bullish_pressure_score": 69,
"bearish_pressure_score": 31,
"net_sentiment_score": 38,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 63,
"fragility_score_0_100": 41,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 30,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 40,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 41,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 41,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 71,
"bearish_pressure_score": 29,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 39,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 43,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 43,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 28,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 4,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 38,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 73,
"bearish_pressure_score": 27,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 37,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 74,
"bearish_pressure_score": 26,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 36,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 25,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 3,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 35,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 76,
"bearish_pressure_score": 24,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 23,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 34,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 78,
"bearish_pressure_score": 22,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 2,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 33,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 11,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior context.",
"No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided; counterevidence primarily from isolated negative VIP outliers and general risk anomalies."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}