Snapshot

  • subject_area: Silver futures
  • target_market_code: silver
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 3
  • top_risk_flag: narrative_whipsaw
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03T06:10:00Z
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0

Signal Table

market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
silver B-silver-01 Near-term silver bias is upward as macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand remain supportive, with incremental support from investment flows. 62 up accelerating 6h false 42
silver B-silver-02 Industrial-demand tailwinds (notably solar manufacturing theme) remain a supportive background driver for silver over the next 24 hours. 60 up stable 24h false 42
silver B-silver-03 Despite a bullish bias, silver is vulnerable to sharp short-term pullbacks if rate-expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens; episodic whipsaw risk. 55 mixed stable 24h false 42

Data Dump (Machine Use)

{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-20260403-061000Z-silver-001",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T06:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Silver futures",
 "market_code": "silver"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "silver",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-01",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Near-term silver bias is upward as macro uncertainty and safe-haven demand remain supportive, with incremental support from investment flows.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "COMEX / safe-haven demand narrative persistence",
 "ETF-related attention/flows (SLV/PSLV proxies in corpus)",
 "Geopolitical-risk backdrop referenced across multiple A-tier sources"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Isolated negative VIP outliers (single-source, low corroboration)",
 "Fast-moving rate/FX narrative risk (can flip direction quickly)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 70,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-02",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Industrial-demand tailwinds (notably solar manufacturing theme) remain a supportive background driver for silver over the next 24 hours, reinforcing bullish bias when macro is not adverse.",
 "probability_pct": 60,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Solar manufacturing growth theme (industrial demand narrative)",
 "Broad multi-source reinforcement over the 30d window"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Macro/rates-driven USD strength episodes (can overwhelm industrial narrative short-term)"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 65,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-silver-03",
 "market": "silver",
 "claim": "Despite a bullish bias, silver is vulnerable to sharp short-term pullbacks if rate-expectations shift hawkish or USD strengthens; expect episodic whipsaw risk.",
 "probability_pct": 55,
 "direction": "mixed",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Rate-expectations intensity (US/ECB macro streams)",
 "Crowded narrative sensitivity (precious metals risk-on/risk-off switching)"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [
 "Sustained fresh reinforcement of safe-haven/ETF narratives"
 ],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 58,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 42,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-silver-01",
 "B-silver-02",
 "B-silver-03"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 70,
 "B": 9,
 "C": 8,
 "D": 115,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_window_hours": 24,
 "fresh_evidence_estimate": 55,
 "stale_evidence_estimate": 145,
 "fresh_share_estimate_0_to_1": 0.28,
 "latest_update_utc": "2026-04-03T06:04:52Z"
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw",
 "severity": "medium",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Macro/rate-expectations streams are dominant and can flip silver bias quickly even when industrial/safe-haven narratives are supportive."
 },
 {
 "flag": "data_sparsity",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Some negative signals are single-source VIP outliers; treated as low-weight counterevidence but increase fragility modestly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "stale_overhang",
 "severity": "low",
 "market": "silver",
 "detail": "Several supportive themes are sustained/slow-burn over >7d; freshness remains high due to recent updates, so no stale suppression applied."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "Bullish directional state persists with fresh confirmation and low contradiction (no kill-switch)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If fresh opposing macro evidence accelerates (rates/USD) and contradiction ratio rises materially within 2–6 hours."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If rate-expectations headlines cluster and ETF/positioning narratives turn mixed (increasing whipsaw risk)."
 },
 {
 "market": "silver",
 "action": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "Only if broad evidence degrades below threshold or late-breaking invalidation triggers."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "silver"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 64,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 36,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.1,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 31,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 31,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 45,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 29,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 65,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 35,
 "net_sentiment_score": 29,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.11,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 5,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 57,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 46,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 32,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 66,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 34,
 "net_sentiment_score": 32,
 "velocity_score": 3,
 "acceleration_score": 5,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 59,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 44,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 60,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 67,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 33,
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 "velocity_score": -1,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 32,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
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 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 37,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
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 "bullish_pressure_score": 69,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 31,
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 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.09,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 63,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 70,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 30,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
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 "acceleration_score": 1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 64,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 40,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 41,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 41,
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 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 39,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 71,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 29,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 43,
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 "bearish_pressure_score": 28,
 "net_sentiment_score": 43,
 "velocity_score": 1,
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 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 4,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 38,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
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 "directional_score_signed": 45,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 45,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 67,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
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 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
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 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 73,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 27,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 3,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
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 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 37,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 74,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 26,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 36,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 75,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 25,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 3,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 35,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 76,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 24,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 77,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 23,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 34,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 55,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 78,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 22,
 "net_sentiment_score": 55,
 "velocity_score": 1,
 "acceleration_score": -1,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 2,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 72,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 33,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 55,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 11,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 10,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "Prior market state not provided to 6B; state_change set to 'unchanged' with unknown prior context.",
 "No explicit contradictory trend objects were provided; counterevidence primarily from isolated negative VIP outliers and general risk anomalies."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
 }
}