• subject_area: Natural gas futures
  • target_market_code: natural_gas
  • ticker: null
  • regime_state: tightening
  • beliefs_count: 2
  • top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility (medium)
  • generated_at: 2026-04-03 16:10 UTC
  • sentiment_word: Bullish
  • late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
  • kill_switch_markets_count: 0
market belief_id claim prob dir vel horizon kill_switch fragility
natural_gas B-NG-001 Near-term risk-premium in natural gas futures remains biased upward as LNG supply-route and Middle East geopolitical risk narratives dominate the freshest evidence window. 62 up accelerating 6h false 55
natural_gas B-NG-002 Over the next 24 hours, the natural gas futures narrative is more likely to stay bid/more volatile than to mean-revert, given persistent high-breadth geopolitical and LNG-supply risk coverage with limited fresh counter-evidence in the admitted corpus. 58 up stable 24h false 55
{
 "workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
 "snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-20260403T161000Z",
 "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T16:10:00Z",
 "primary_asset_focus": {
 "name": "Natural gas futures",
 "market_code": "natural_gas"
 },
 "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
 "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "commodity_registry": [
 "crude_oil",
 "gold",
 "natural_gas",
 "copper",
 "silver",
 "wheat",
 "corn",
 "uranium",
 "lithium",
 "coffee"
 ],
 "target_market_code": "natural_gas",
 "target_resolution_source": "explicit",
 "scope_mode": "single_market",
 "analyzed_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "regime_state": "tightening",
 "beliefs": [
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-001",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Near-term risk-premium in natural gas futures remains biased upward as LNG supply-route and Middle East geopolitical risk narratives dominate the freshest evidence window.",
 "probability_pct": 62,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "accelerating",
 "horizon": "6h",
 "drivers": [
 "Energy geopolitics / conflict-risk premium (Hormuz, Iran-linked escalation narratives)",
 "LNG supply-chain fragility focus (Qatar / Ras Laffan related disruption narratives)",
 "Operational disruption chatter (Australia LNG chain / storm-related narratives) as secondary support"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 },
 {
 "belief_id": "B-NG-002",
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the natural gas futures narrative is more likely to stay bid/more volatile than to mean-revert, given persistent high-breadth geopolitical and LNG-supply risk coverage with limited fresh counter-evidence in the admitted corpus.",
 "probability_pct": 58,
 "direction": "up",
 "velocity": "stable",
 "horizon": "24h",
 "drivers": [
 "Broad multi-source reinforcement of energy-security risk",
 "LNG export / shipping disruption sensitivity (global LNG linkages)",
 "Low observed counter-evidence density in the last 24h slice of admitted signals"
 ],
 "contradicted_by": [],
 "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
 }
 ],
 "market_state_table": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "directional_state": "bullish",
 "momentum_state": "strengthening",
 "reversal_risk": "medium",
 "state_change": "unchanged",
 "directional_mass_score_0_100": 81,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 74,
 "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
 "authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
 "freshness_confidence": "high",
 "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
 "stale_suppression_applied": false,
 "thesis_kill_switch": false,
 "late_breaking_alert": false,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "supporting_belief_ids": [
 "B-NG-001",
 "B-NG-002"
 ],
 "source_tier_counts": {
 "A": 80,
 "B": 4,
 "C": 0,
 "D": 92,
 "U": 0
 },
 "freshness_mix": {
 "fresh_0_6h_est": 22,
 "fresh_6_24h_est": 48,
 "stale_24_72h_est": 14,
 "stale_gt_72h_est": 10,
 "fresh_share_0_to_1_est": 0.7
 }
 }
 ],
 "risk_flags": [
 {
 "flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Directional support is event-risk driven; rapid de-escalation headlines can compress risk premium quickly."
 },
 {
 "flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Admitted corpus is heavily weighted to geopolitics/LNG-supply risk; limited direct evidence mapped to storage/weather demand arenas in this cycle."
 },
 {
 "flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
 "severity": "medium",
 "detail": "Late-surge clusters increase short-horizon momentum but also increase reversal sensitivity to a single clarifying update."
 },
 {
 "flag": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
 "severity": "low",
 "detail": "Several VIP/risk items are singleton-source and should not dominate directional conviction."
 }
 ],
 "candidate_actions": [
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "watch_long_bias",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If additional independent LNG outage / disruption confirmations appear within the next 6h without fresh counter-evidence."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "volatility_watch",
 "confidence": "high",
 "trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headline cadence remains elevated (multiple high-tier updates) or options-implied narrative intensifies in the next cycle."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "reversal_watch",
 "confidence": "medium",
 "trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh de-escalation / supply-restoration items arrive inside a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation sentinel conditions)."
 },
 {
 "market": "natural_gas",
 "action_label": "stay_flat",
 "confidence": "low",
 "trigger_condition": "If new data indicates the signals are unrelated to gas/LNG flows (relevance degradation) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
 }
 ],
 "paper_trade_signal_pack": {
 "bullish_markets": [
 "natural_gas"
 ],
 "bearish_markets": [],
 "neutral_mixed_markets": [],
 "high_reversal_risk_markets": []
 },
 "signal_timeseries": {
 "resolution": "1h",
 "lookback_hours": 24,
 "bucket_timezone": "UTC",
 "buckets": [
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 12,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 32,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 20,
 "net_sentiment_score": 12,
 "velocity_score": 0,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 42,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 66,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 14,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 33,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 19,
 "net_sentiment_score": 14,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 44,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 65,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 16,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 34,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 18,
 "net_sentiment_score": 16,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 1,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 45,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 64,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 18,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 35,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 17,
 "net_sentiment_score": 18,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 47,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 63,
 "dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 20,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 36,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 16,
 "net_sentiment_score": 20,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 48,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 62,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 22,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 37,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 15,
 "net_sentiment_score": 22,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 50,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 61,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 24,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 38,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 14,
 "net_sentiment_score": 24,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 2,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 51,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 60,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 26,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 39,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 13,
 "net_sentiment_score": 26,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 54,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 59,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 28,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 40,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 12,
 "net_sentiment_score": 28,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 56,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 30,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 41,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 11,
 "net_sentiment_score": 30,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 58,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 34,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 43,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 9,
 "net_sentiment_score": 34,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 61,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": 6,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 52,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 52,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 0,
 "net_sentiment_score": 52,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": -4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 51,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 56,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 54,
 "bearish_pressure_score": -2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 56,
 "velocity_score": 4,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 6,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 75,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 50,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 54,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 53,
 "bearish_pressure_score": -1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 54,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": -6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 73,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 52,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": -4,
 "acceleration_score": -2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 71,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 53,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 48,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 50,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 2,
 "net_sentiment_score": 48,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 2,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 5,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 54,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 46,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 49,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 3,
 "net_sentiment_score": 46,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 69,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 44,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 48,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 4,
 "net_sentiment_score": 44,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 68,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 56,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 40,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 46,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 6,
 "net_sentiment_score": 40,
 "velocity_score": -2,
 "acceleration_score": 0,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 65,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 58,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 42,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 47,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 5,
 "net_sentiment_score": 42,
 "velocity_score": 2,
 "acceleration_score": 4,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 3,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 66,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 57,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 },
 {
 "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
 "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
 "directional_score_signed": 50,
 "bullish_pressure_score": 51,
 "bearish_pressure_score": 1,
 "net_sentiment_score": 50,
 "velocity_score": 8,
 "acceleration_score": 6,
 "contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
 "fresh_evidence_count": 4,
 "stale_evidence_count": 1,
 "conviction_score_0_100": 70,
 "fragility_score_0_100": 55,
 "dominant_state": "bullish"
 }
 ]
 },
 "recent_half_hour_overlay": {
 "enabled": false,
 "resolution": "30m",
 "lookback_hours": 6,
 "buckets": []
 },
 "summary": {
 "timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
 "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
 "latest_inflection_direction": "up",
 "latest_inflection_strength": 8,
 "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
 }
 },
 "diagnostics": {
 "conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
 "trends_seen": 12,
 "trends_admitted": 9,
 "cross_domain_merges": 3,
 "stale_suppression_count": 0,
 "reversal_flags_count": 1,
 "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
 "kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
 "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
 "timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
 "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
 "target_market_custom": false,
 "target_market_unresolved": false,
 "input_gate_degraded": false,
 "notes": [
 "State-change prior is unavailable in provided inputs (no trend_state_memory / prior 6B row). state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid implying a reversal without a known prior.",
 "Directional interpretation maps 'risk / negative narrative sentiment' in evidence to higher price-risk premium (bullish bias) for natural_gas; this is an inference from supply-disruption framing, not an explicit price report.",
 "Signal timeseries values are conservative bucketed estimates derived from provided recency/temporal profiles; per-record timestamp allocation was not fully available in-message."
 ]
 },
 "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}