- subject_area: Natural gas futures
- target_market_code: natural_gas
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: geopolitical_headline_volatility (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03 16:10 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-001 |
Near-term risk-premium in natural gas futures remains biased upward as LNG supply-route and Middle East geopolitical risk narratives dominate the freshest evidence window. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
55 |
| natural_gas |
B-NG-002 |
Over the next 24 hours, the natural gas futures narrative is more likely to stay bid/more volatile than to mean-revert, given persistent high-breadth geopolitical and LNG-supply risk coverage with limited fresh counter-evidence in the admitted corpus. |
58 |
up |
stable |
24h |
false |
55 |
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "6B-CIS-natural_gas-20260403T161000Z",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T16:10:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Natural gas futures",
"market_code": "natural_gas"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "natural_gas",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-001",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Near-term risk-premium in natural gas futures remains biased upward as LNG supply-route and Middle East geopolitical risk narratives dominate the freshest evidence window.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"Energy geopolitics / conflict-risk premium (Hormuz, Iran-linked escalation narratives)",
"LNG supply-chain fragility focus (Qatar / Ras Laffan related disruption narratives)",
"Operational disruption chatter (Australia LNG chain / storm-related narratives) as secondary support"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 76,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 68,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-NG-002",
"market": "natural_gas",
"claim": "Over the next 24 hours, the natural gas futures narrative is more likely to stay bid/more volatile than to mean-revert, given persistent high-breadth geopolitical and LNG-supply risk coverage with limited fresh counter-evidence in the admitted corpus.",
"probability_pct": 58,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"Broad multi-source reinforcement of energy-security risk",
"LNG export / shipping disruption sensitivity (global LNG linkages)",
"Low observed counter-evidence density in the last 24h slice of admitted signals"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 66,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 81,
"conviction_score_0_100": 74,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 67,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-NG-001",
"B-NG-002"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 80,
"B": 4,
"C": 0,
"D": 92,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h_est": 22,
"fresh_6_24h_est": 48,
"stale_24_72h_est": 14,
"stale_gt_72h_est": 10,
"fresh_share_0_to_1_est": 0.7
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "geopolitical_headline_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Directional support is event-risk driven; rapid de-escalation headlines can compress risk premium quickly."
},
{
"flag": "fundamental_coverage_gap",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Admitted corpus is heavily weighted to geopolitics/LNG-supply risk; limited direct evidence mapped to storage/weather demand arenas in this cycle."
},
{
"flag": "narrative_whipsaw_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Late-surge clusters increase short-horizon momentum but also increase reversal sensitivity to a single clarifying update."
},
{
"flag": "echo_risk_vip_lane",
"severity": "low",
"detail": "Several VIP/risk items are singleton-source and should not dominate directional conviction."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If additional independent LNG outage / disruption confirmations appear within the next 6h without fresh counter-evidence."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "If geopolitical headline cadence remains elevated (multiple high-tier updates) or options-implied narrative intensifies in the next cycle."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "If 2+ independent fresh de-escalation / supply-restoration items arrive inside a 2h window (late-breaking invalidation sentinel conditions)."
},
{
"market": "natural_gas",
"action_label": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "If new data indicates the signals are unrelated to gas/LNG flows (relevance degradation) or if contradiction ratio rises materially."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"natural_gas"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 12,
"bullish_pressure_score": 32,
"bearish_pressure_score": 20,
"net_sentiment_score": 12,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 42,
"fragility_score_0_100": 66,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 14,
"bullish_pressure_score": 33,
"bearish_pressure_score": 19,
"net_sentiment_score": 14,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 44,
"fragility_score_0_100": 65,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 16,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 18,
"net_sentiment_score": 16,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 45,
"fragility_score_0_100": 64,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 35,
"bearish_pressure_score": 17,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 47,
"fragility_score_0_100": 63,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 62,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 61,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 14,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 60,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 13,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 59,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 40,
"bearish_pressure_score": 12,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 11,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 34,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 9,
"net_sentiment_score": 34,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 6,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 52,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 52,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": -4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 56,
"bullish_pressure_score": 54,
"bearish_pressure_score": -2,
"net_sentiment_score": 56,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.04,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 75,
"fragility_score_0_100": 50,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 54,
"bullish_pressure_score": 53,
"bearish_pressure_score": -1,
"net_sentiment_score": 54,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 73,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 48,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 2,
"net_sentiment_score": 48,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 46,
"bullish_pressure_score": 49,
"bearish_pressure_score": 3,
"net_sentiment_score": 46,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 44,
"bullish_pressure_score": 48,
"bearish_pressure_score": 4,
"net_sentiment_score": 44,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 68,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 46,
"bearish_pressure_score": 6,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": -2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 65,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 5,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 4,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 66,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 51,
"bearish_pressure_score": 1,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 8,
"acceleration_score": 6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.05,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 1,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 56,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "up",
"latest_inflection_strength": 8,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 9,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"State-change prior is unavailable in provided inputs (no trend_state_memory / prior 6B row). state_change defaulted to 'unchanged' to avoid implying a reversal without a known prior.",
"Directional interpretation maps 'risk / negative narrative sentiment' in evidence to higher price-risk premium (bullish bias) for natural_gas; this is an inference from supply-disruption framing, not an explicit price report.",
"Signal timeseries values are conservative bucketed estimates derived from provided recency/temporal profiles; per-record timestamp allocation was not fully available in-message."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}