Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium futures
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker:
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 3
- top_risk_flag: supply_overhang_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T08:00:00Z
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| lithium |
B-lithium-01 |
Near-term lithium futures bias is upward as fresh, broad EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals continue to dominate the corpus. |
62 |
up |
accelerating |
24h |
false |
46 |
| lithium |
B-lithium-02 |
Supply-side expansion narratives (lithium extraction / mining build-outs and capacity additions) create a medium-term price-cap / downside skew risk even if demand headlines stay constructive. |
52 |
mixed |
stable |
30d |
false |
46 |
| lithium |
B-lithium-03 |
Short-term volatility risk is elevated from China-linked trade/operational signals (customs / policy-adjacent flows) even without clear bearish directionality. |
57 |
mixed |
accelerating |
6h |
false |
46 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap-6B-20260403T080000Z-lithium",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Lithium futures",
"market_code": "lithium"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "lithium",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"regime_state": "tightening",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-01",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Near-term lithium futures bias is upward as fresh, broad EV adoption + battery manufacturing capacity expansion signals continue to dominate the corpus.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"ev_demand",
"battery_supply_chain",
"refining_capacity"
],
"contradicted_by": [
"B-lithium-02"
],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 72,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-02",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Supply-side expansion narratives (lithium extraction / mining build-outs and capacity additions) create a medium-term price-cap / downside skew risk even if demand headlines stay constructive.",
"probability_pct": 52,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "30d",
"drivers": [
"lithium_mining_supply",
"refining_capacity",
"china_policy"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium"
},
{
"belief_id": "B-lithium-03",
"market": "lithium",
"claim": "Short-term volatility risk is elevated from China-linked trade/operational signals (customs / policy-adjacent flows) even without clear bearish directionality.",
"probability_pct": 57,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "accelerating",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"china_policy",
"battery_supply_chain"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 50,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 40,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"directional_state": "bullish",
"momentum_state": "strengthening",
"reversal_risk": "medium",
"state_change": "new_bullish",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 78,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 58,
"authority_confirmation_band": "medium",
"freshness_confidence": "high",
"catalyst_type": "fresh_directional",
"stale_suppression_applied": false,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B-lithium-01",
"B-lithium-02",
"B-lithium-03"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 48,
"B": 2,
"C": 8,
"D": 76,
"U": 0
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_6h": 6,
"fresh_6_24h": 22,
"stale_gt_24h": 60
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"risk_id": "RF-lithium-01",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "supply_overhang_risk",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "Extraction/mining capacity expansion narratives can cap upside and increase reversal sensitivity if demand news cools."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-lithium-02",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "policy_trade_volatility",
"severity": "medium",
"rationale": "China-linked operational/trade signals (customs/policy-adjacent flow risk) may drive short-horizon volatility without requiring a directional flip."
},
{
"risk_id": "RF-lithium-03",
"market": "lithium",
"flag": "low_contradiction_but_domain_proxy",
"severity": "low",
"rationale": "Most signals are demand/supply-chain proxies rather than direct lithium pricing prints; directional inference may lag market pricing."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "watch_long_bias",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh EV-demand/battery-capacity signals remain dominant and contradiction stays low."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "reversal_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate if fresh (<=24h) supply-expansion or demand-slowdown evidence clusters and contradiction ratio rises materially."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "volatility_watch",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Elevate if additional China trade/customs/policy operational anomalies appear within the next 6h window."
},
{
"market": "lithium",
"action": "stay_flat",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Only if evidence feed degrades below threshold or contradictory signals emerge within <=2h."
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [
"lithium"
],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 18,
"bullish_pressure_score": 34,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 18,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 20,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 16,
"net_sentiment_score": 20,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.08,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 49,
"fragility_score_0_100": 57,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 22,
"bullish_pressure_score": 37,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 22,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 21,
"bullish_pressure_score": 36,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 21,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 1,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 48,
"fragility_score_0_100": 58,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 23,
"bullish_pressure_score": 38,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 23,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 50,
"fragility_score_0_100": 56,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 24,
"bullish_pressure_score": 39,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 24,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 51,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 26,
"bullish_pressure_score": 41,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 26,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 53,
"fragility_score_0_100": 54,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 28,
"bullish_pressure_score": 43,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 28,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 27,
"bullish_pressure_score": 42,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 27,
"velocity_score": -1,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 2,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 52,
"fragility_score_0_100": 55,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 29,
"bullish_pressure_score": 44,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 29,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 54,
"fragility_score_0_100": 53,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 30,
"bullish_pressure_score": 45,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 30,
"velocity_score": 1,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 3,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 55,
"fragility_score_0_100": 52,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 32,
"bullish_pressure_score": 47,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 32,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 56,
"fragility_score_0_100": 51,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 35,
"bullish_pressure_score": 50,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 35,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 58,
"fragility_score_0_100": 49,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 37,
"bullish_pressure_score": 52,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 37,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 4,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 59,
"fragility_score_0_100": 48,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 40,
"bullish_pressure_score": 55,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 40,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 61,
"fragility_score_0_100": 47,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 42,
"bullish_pressure_score": 57,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 42,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 5,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 62,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 45,
"bullish_pressure_score": 60,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 45,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 6,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 64,
"fragility_score_0_100": 45,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 50,
"bullish_pressure_score": 65,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 50,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 67,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 55,
"bullish_pressure_score": 70,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 55,
"velocity_score": 5,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 5,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 57,
"bullish_pressure_score": 72,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 57,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -3,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 70,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 60,
"bullish_pressure_score": 75,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 60,
"velocity_score": 3,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 8,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 71,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 64,
"bullish_pressure_score": 79,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 64,
"velocity_score": 4,
"acceleration_score": 1,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 6,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 43,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 66,
"bullish_pressure_score": 81,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 66,
"velocity_score": 2,
"acceleration_score": -2,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.06,
"fresh_evidence_count": 9,
"stale_evidence_count": 7,
"conviction_score_0_100": 72,
"fragility_score_0_100": 44,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 62,
"bullish_pressure_score": 77,
"bearish_pressure_score": 15,
"net_sentiment_score": 62,
"velocity_score": -4,
"acceleration_score": -6,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.07,
"fresh_evidence_count": 7,
"stale_evidence_count": 8,
"conviction_score_0_100": 69,
"fragility_score_0_100": 46,
"dominant_state": "bullish"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 66,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": -5,
"latest_inflection_direction": "down",
"latest_inflection_strength": 4,
"signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish"
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 10,
"cross_domain_merges": 3,
"stale_suppression_count": 0,
"reversal_flags_count": 1,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Prior market state not provided; state_change computed against neutral baseline (unknown_prior treated as neutral).",
"No explicit contradictory records were provided in the admitted trend set; reversal risk is driven by structural supply-overhang + operational/trade volatility flags rather than true counter-mass evidence.",
"Signal timeseries is conservative/approximate due to missing full per-record timestamp distribution in the gated payload; buckets reflect recency concentration seen in trend evidence recency proxies and samples.",
"source_tier_counts and freshness_mix are approximate rollups from the most lithium-linked admitted trend bundles and may include double-counting across overlapping evidence sets."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}
}