Snapshot
- subject_area: Lithium (battery metals demand/supply balance)
- target_market_code: lithium
- ticker: null
- regime_state: tightening
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: indirect_proxy_risk (medium)
- generated_at: 2026-04-03 16:00 UTC
- sentiment_word: Bullish
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market | belief_id | claim | prob | dir | vel | horizon | kill_switch | fragility |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lithium | B-LI-001 | Near-term lithium price bias skews upward as EV adoption and battery build-out narratives remain net-supportive over the next 6–24h window. | 62 | up | accelerating | 24h | false | 53 |
| lithium | B-LI-002 | Upside in lithium is likely to be choppy/fragile because supply growth and extraction scale-up narratives remain active alongside demand growth narratives. | 58 | mixed | stable | 24h | false | 53 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{ "workflow_6B_CIS_output": { "snapshot_id": "snap_20260403_160000Z_lithium_6B", "timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z", "primary_asset_focus": { "name": "Lithium (battery metals demand/supply balance)", "market_code": "lithium" }, "headline_sentiment_word": "Bullish", "headline_conviction_score_0_100": 72, "headline_fragility_score_0_100": 53, "headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "commodity_registry": [ "crude_oil", "gold", "natural_gas", "copper", "silver", "wheat", "corn", "uranium", "lithium", "coffee" ], "target_market_code": "lithium", "target_resolution_source": "explicit", "scope_mode": "single_market", "analyzed_markets": [ "lithium" ], "regime_state": "tightening", "beliefs": [ { "belief_id": "B-LI-001", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Near-term lithium price bias skews upward as EV adoption and battery build-out narratives remain net-supportive over the next 6\u201324h window.", "probability_pct": 62, "direction": "up", "velocity": "accelerating", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "EV adoption / energy-transition policy narrative remains strong and fresh (multiple high-recency mentions).", "Battery manufacturing capacity expansion narratives imply continued downstream demand pull." ], "contradicted_by": [ "Supply-side expansion and extraction scale-up narratives can cap upside (risk of demand optimism being met by supply response)." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 74, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" }, { "belief_id": "B-LI-002", "market": "lithium", "claim": "Upside in lithium is likely to be choppy/fragile because supply growth and extraction scale-up narratives remain active alongside demand growth narratives.", "probability_pct": 58, "direction": "mixed", "velocity": "stable", "horizon": "24h", "drivers": [ "Lithium extraction / mining / supply-chain scaling narratives appear alongside demand narratives.", "Evidence set is rich but not uniformly price-explicit (proxy risk)." ], "contradicted_by": [ "If additional fresh, direct lithium-tightness/spot-price signals appear, mixed/choppy expectation weakens." ], "directional_confidence_score_0_100": 66, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 55, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium" } ], "market_state_table": [ { "market": "lithium", "directional_state": "bullish", "momentum_state": "strengthening", "reversal_risk": "medium", "state_change": "unchanged", "directional_mass_score_0_100": 78, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 60, "authority_confirmation_band": "medium", "freshness_confidence": "high", "catalyst_type": "fresh_directional", "stale_suppression_applied": false, "thesis_kill_switch": false, "late_breaking_alert": false, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "supporting_belief_ids": [ "B-LI-001", "B-LI-002" ], "source_tier_counts": { "A": 32, "B": 4, "C": 6, "D": 59, "U": 0 }, "freshness_mix": { "fresh_0_6h_evidence_est": 4, "fresh_6_24h_evidence_est": 16, "stale_over_72h_background_est": 20, "newest_signal_timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T15:01:34Z", "oldest_supporting_timestamp_utc": "2026-03-17T15:40:15Z" } } ], "risk_flags": [ { "flag": "indirect_proxy_risk", "severity": "medium", "detail": "A meaningful share of admitted evidence is demand/policy proxy (EV adoption/transition) rather than lithium price/physical tightness signals." }, { "flag": "supply_expansion_counterpressure", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Extraction/mining scale-up and supply-chain expansion narratives introduce genuine counter-pressure to price-up thesis (caps upside / raises choppiness)." }, { "flag": "low_authority_overhang", "severity": "medium", "detail": "Several high-volume narratives show elevated low-tier share; authority confirmation exists but is not dominant across the whole set." }, { "flag": "operational_surge_risk", "severity": "low_to_medium", "detail": "Seed-level operational risk anomaly present; evidence not materialised in cache (treat as watch item, not directional counter-evidence)." } ], "candidate_actions": [ { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "watch_long_bias", "trigger_condition": "Maintain bullish watch while fresh EV/battery demand signals continue without a surge in fresh, explicit supply-glut / demand-weakness evidence in the next 6\u201324h." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "medium", "action": "volatility_watch", "trigger_condition": "Escalate volatility watch if new policy/China-related operational signals accelerate or if supply-expansion headlines intensify in the last-6h window." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low_to_medium", "action": "reversal_watch", "trigger_condition": "Switch to reversal watch if 2+ independent fresh (<=2h) opposing records emerge indicating demand slowdown or oversupply/price cuts." }, { "market": "lithium", "confidence": "low", "action": "stay_flat", "trigger_condition": "Prefer flat label if directional score falls into [-19,+19] or contradiction ratio spikes above ~0.35 with fresh opposing evidence." } ], "paper_trade_signal_pack": { "bullish_markets": [ "lithium" ], "bearish_markets": [], "neutral_mixed_markets": [], "high_reversal_risk_markets": [] }, "signal_timeseries": { "resolution": "1h", "lookback_hours": 24, "bucket_timezone": "UTC", "buckets": [ { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T16:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.09, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 55, "fragility_score_0_100": 58, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T17:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 20, "bullish_pressure_score": 46, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 20, "velocity_score": 0, "acceleration_score": 0, 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"dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T10:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 28, "bullish_pressure_score": 54, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 28, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 63, "fragility_score_0_100": 54, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T11:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 29, "bullish_pressure_score": 55, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 29, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 65, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T12:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 31, "bullish_pressure_score": 57, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 31, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 67, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T13:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 33, "bullish_pressure_score": 59, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 33, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 2, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 70, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T14:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 35, "bullish_pressure_score": 61, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 35, "velocity_score": 2, "acceleration_score": 0, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 0, "stale_evidence_count": 2, "conviction_score_0_100": 71, "fragility_score_0_100": 52, "dominant_state": "bullish" }, { "bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T15:00:00Z", "bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T16:00:00Z", "directional_score_signed": 36, "bullish_pressure_score": 62, "bearish_pressure_score": 26, "net_sentiment_score": 36, "velocity_score": 1, "acceleration_score": -1, "contradiction_ratio": 0.08, "fresh_evidence_count": 1, "stale_evidence_count": 1, "conviction_score_0_100": 72, "fragility_score_0_100": 53, "dominant_state": "bullish" } ] }, "recent_half_hour_overlay": { "enabled": false, "resolution": "30m", "lookback_hours": 6, "buckets": [] }, "summary": { "timeseries_peak_bullish": 36, "timeseries_peak_bearish": 0, "latest_inflection_direction": "up", "latest_inflection_strength": 4, "signal_regime": "strengthening_bullish" } }, "diagnostics": { "conviction_policy_used": "balanced", "trends_seen": 12, "trends_admitted": 8, "cross_domain_merges": 2, "stale_suppression_count": 0, "reversal_flags_count": 1, "late_breaking_alerts_count": 0, "kill_switch_markets_count": 0, "strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 1, "timeseries_bucket_count": 24, "timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0, "target_market_custom": false, "target_market_unresolved": false, "input_gate_degraded": false, "notes": [ "Target market resolved explicitly from flight_plan.target_market_code=lithium.", "No explicit contradictory-record set provided; counterpressure modelled from mixed demand-vs-supply implications inside admitted themes (not from labelled contradictions).", "state_change marked 'unchanged' due to unknown prior state (no trend_state_memory/prior market_state_table supplied).", "Late-breaking invalidation sentinel did not trigger: no fresh opposing (<=2h) multi-record cluster or hard invalidator detected in provided corpus." ] }, "completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B" }