Snapshot
- subject_area: Gold futures
- target_market_code: gold
- ticker:
- regime_state: rangebound
- beliefs_count: 2
- top_risk_flag: data_sparsity_gold_mapped
- generated_at: 2026-04-03T07:05:00Z
- sentiment_word: Mixed
- late_breaking_alerts_count: 0
- kill_switch_markets_count: 0
Signal Table
| market |
belief_id |
claim |
prob |
dir |
vel |
horizon |
kill_switch |
fragility |
| gold |
B1 |
Gold futures may see mild support from trade/logistics-friction narratives, but the supporting corpus is thin and largely stale. |
56 |
up |
fading |
24h |
false |
78 |
| gold |
B2 |
Absent fresh, corroborated macro drivers (real_rates / USD / ETF flows / central_bank_flows), gold is more likely to remain mixed/rangebound than trend strongly. |
62 |
mixed |
stable |
6h |
false |
78 |
Data Dump (Machine Use)
{
"workflow_6B_CIS_output": {
"snapshot_id": "snap-20260403T070500Z-gold-6B",
"timestamp_utc": "2026-04-03T07:05:00Z",
"primary_asset_focus": {
"name": "Gold futures",
"market_code": "gold"
},
"headline_sentiment_word": "Mixed",
"headline_conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"headline_fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"headline_authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"commodity_registry": [
"crude_oil",
"gold",
"natural_gas",
"copper",
"silver",
"wheat",
"corn",
"uranium",
"lithium",
"coffee"
],
"target_market_code": "gold",
"target_resolution_source": "explicit",
"scope_mode": "single_market",
"analyzed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"regime_state": "rangebound",
"beliefs": [
{
"belief_id": "B1",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Gold futures may see mild support from trade/logistics-friction narratives (traceability, disruption risk), but the supporting corpus is thin and largely stale.",
"probability_pct": 56,
"direction": "up",
"velocity": "fading",
"horizon": "24h",
"drivers": [
"physical_gold_demand",
"geopolitical_risk"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 34,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 35,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
},
{
"belief_id": "B2",
"market": "gold",
"claim": "Absent fresh, corroborated macro drivers (real rates / USD / ETF flows / central bank flow signals) in the admitted gold-mapped set, gold is more likely to remain mixed/rangebound than trend strongly.",
"probability_pct": 62,
"direction": "mixed",
"velocity": "stable",
"horizon": "6h",
"drivers": [
"real_rates",
"usd_strength",
"etf_investment_flows",
"central_bank_flows"
],
"contradicted_by": [],
"directional_confidence_score_0_100": 38,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 25,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low"
}
],
"market_state_table": [
{
"market": "gold",
"directional_state": "neutral_mixed",
"momentum_state": "weakening",
"reversal_risk": "low",
"state_change": "unchanged",
"directional_mass_score_0_100": 28,
"conviction_score_0_100": 30,
"authority_confirmation_score_0_100": 32,
"authority_confirmation_band": "low",
"freshness_confidence": "low",
"catalyst_type": "unclear",
"stale_suppression_applied": true,
"thesis_kill_switch": false,
"late_breaking_alert": false,
"fragility_score_0_100": 78,
"supporting_belief_ids": [
"B1",
"B2"
],
"source_tier_counts": {
"A": 1,
"B": 0,
"C": 0,
"D": 1,
"U": 1
},
"freshness_mix": {
"fresh_0_24h": 0,
"mid_24_72h": 0,
"stale_over_72h": 3,
"total_admitted_gold_mapped_signals": 3
}
}
],
"risk_flags": [
{
"flag": "data_sparsity_gold_mapped",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Gold-mapped evidence is dominated by singleton/low-diversity items; directional mass is insufficient for a strong call."
},
{
"flag": "stale_context_overhang",
"severity": "high",
"detail": "Most gold-mapped items are >72h old relative to the 2026-04-03 snapshot; stale suppression applied."
},
{
"flag": "cross_arena_unmapped_pressure",
"severity": "medium",
"detail": "Substantial geopolitical/macro corpus exists but does not map cleanly to gold via alias rules; not force-mapped."
}
],
"candidate_actions": [
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "high",
"trigger_condition": "Stay flat while directional_mass_score_0_100 < 45 OR freshness_confidence != 'high'.",
"action": "stay_flat"
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "medium",
"trigger_condition": "Watch for fresh (<=24h), multi-source confirmation tying macro drivers (real rates, USD, ETF/CB flows) directly to gold.",
"action": "volatility_watch"
},
{
"market": "gold",
"confidence": "low",
"trigger_condition": "Escalate to reversal_watch only if fresh opposing gold-direction signals appear with rising contradiction in the admitted gold-mapped set.",
"action": "reversal_watch"
}
],
"paper_trade_signal_pack": {
"bullish_markets": [],
"bearish_markets": [],
"neutral_mixed_markets": [
"gold"
],
"high_reversal_risk_markets": []
},
"signal_timeseries": {
"resolution": "1h",
"lookback_hours": 24,
"bucket_timezone": "UTC",
"buckets": [
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T07:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T08:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T09:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T10:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T11:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T12:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T13:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T14:00:00Z",
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T15:00:00Z",
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T18:00:00Z",
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"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T19:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
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"acceleration_score": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T20:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T21:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T22:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-02T23:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
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"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T00:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
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"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T01:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
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"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T02:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
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"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T03:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T04:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T05:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
},
{
"bucket_start_utc": "2026-04-03T06:00:00Z",
"bucket_end_utc": "2026-04-03T07:00:00Z",
"directional_score_signed": 0,
"bullish_pressure_score": 0,
"bearish_pressure_score": 0,
"net_sentiment_score": 0,
"velocity_score": 0,
"acceleration_score": 0,
"contradiction_ratio": 0.0,
"fresh_evidence_count": 0,
"stale_evidence_count": 0,
"conviction_score_0_100": 15,
"fragility_score_0_100": 80,
"dominant_state": "neutral_mixed"
}
]
},
"recent_half_hour_overlay": {
"enabled": false,
"resolution": "30m",
"lookback_hours": 6,
"buckets": []
},
"summary": {
"timeseries_peak_bullish": 0,
"timeseries_peak_bearish": 0,
"latest_inflection_direction": "flat",
"latest_inflection_strength": 0,
"signal_regime": "mixed_flat"
}
},
"diagnostics": {
"conviction_policy_used": "mass_consensus",
"trends_seen": 12,
"trends_admitted": 0,
"cross_domain_merges": 1,
"stale_suppression_count": 1,
"reversal_flags_count": 0,
"late_breaking_alerts_count": 0,
"kill_switch_markets_count": 0,
"strong_mass_low_authority_cycles": 0,
"timeseries_bucket_count": 24,
"timeseries_overlay_bucket_count": 0,
"target_market_custom": false,
"target_market_unresolved": false,
"input_gate_degraded": false,
"notes": [
"Target market resolved explicitly to 'gold'.",
"Most high-volume trend items are geopolitical/macro but do not contain gold aliases; they were not force-mapped to gold (unmapped_signal_count elevated).",
"Gold-mapped inputs are primarily VIP singleton items dated 2026-03-04 to 2026-03-09; these are stale relative to the 2026-04-03 snapshot and therefore downweighted.",
"No prior market-state memory was provided; state_change set to 'unchanged' under unknown_prior fallback."
]
},
"completion_state": "ready_for_workflow_8B"
}